Al-Shabab And The Garissa Massacre: Implications For China In East Africa – Analysis

At approximately 5.30 AM on Thursday April 2, 2015, a group of heavily armed gunmen from the Somali al-Shabab militant organization invaded the eastern Kenyan campus of Garissa University College, shooting students sleeping in their dormitories and taking others hostage. According to witnesses, the militants specifically targeted Christian students. The 15 hour siege ended when Kenyan security forces killed the gunmen. The attack on Garissa left at least 147 people dead, and at least 79 people injured. Garissa, which is 90 miles from the Kenyan border with Somalia, represents the latest bloody round in Kenya’s troubled relationship with its neighbour, and it also represents an increase in political risk for China’s continued economic engagement with Africa. Al-Shabab had previously struck Kenya in September 2013, when an attack by its militants on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall left 67 people dead. 312 people were killed by al-Shabab in Kenya between 2012-14, including the Westgate victims. The Garissa massacre was the second most deadly terrorist attack in Kenya since al-Qaeda’s 1998 bombing of the American embassy in Nairobi, which left 213 people dead. Terrorism experts fear Garissa marks a further escalation in al-Shabab’s campaign of violence.1

The Globalization of Terror

Al-Shabab, which is Arabic for “the youth,” first came to power as the youth wing of Somalia’s Union of Islamic Courts, a militant alliance which controlled Mogadishu in 2006, until it was ousted through Ethiopian military intervention. The Ethiopian troops left Mogadishu in 2009, and they were replaced by a regional African Union peacekeeping force, which included Kenyan and Ugandan troops. In 2010 al-Shabab conducted its first attack on foreign soil, staging suicide bombings in Uganda. Attacks in Kenya were met with further Kenyan military intervention in Somalia, and this was reciprocated with an escalation of al-Shabab violence in Kenya, including the Westgate and Garissa massacres.2

Al-Shabab has benefitted from the globalization of terrorism, with its ranks of local fighters strengthened with foreign jihadists, including some from the US and Europe.3 Its original leaders had forged ties with al-Qaeda and its regional branch al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. This alliance has shifted with the declaration in June 2014 of the establishment of a caliphate by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, with the emergence in al-Shabab of factions favoring an alliance with the Islamic State. This has been facilitated by US drone strikes that have assassinated al-Shabab leaders like Ahmed Godane and Adan Garaar, clearing the space for the rise of a new group of leaders.4 While the US War on Terror has managed to suppress the activities of al-Qaeda, the Islamic State has grown its caliphate in a remarkably short period of time. The Islamic State’s carefully cultivated image of jihadist violence and military prowess has been vigorously propagated through social media, thereby capturing the imagination of jihadists around the world.5 (Interestingly the Islamic State could have learnt its propaganda strategy from Al-Shabab.6) The Islamic State’s successful establishment of a caliphate in particular has excited impatient jihadists who had grown weary of al-Qaeda’s admonishment that the task of jihad would take a century.7 With the weakening of al-Shabab’s original leadership, the organization is poised to be taken over by leaders who seek to replace their previous alliance with al-Qaeda with an alliance with the Islamic State. Indeed, the Islamic State itself seeks such an alliance, as this will expand its caliphate into the Horn of Africa.8 The Islamic State hence has officially called on Abu Ubaidah, the emir of al-Shabab in Somalia, to swear allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Caliph of the Islamic State. If al-Shabab does form an alliance with the Islamic State, this could lead to an influx of the Islamic State’s foreign fighters seeking to expand the caliphate’s East African territory, thereby escalating the jihadist violence in the region.9

Liu Xianfa, China’s ambassador to Kenya, has swiftly condemned the massacre at Garissa, and reiterated China’s staunch support for Kenya’s fight against terrorism.10 China has good reason to oppose Al-Shabab and the globalization of terrorism, as it has in recent years become the victim of global terror. Jihadist terror in China is centered in the northwestern Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where hundreds of disgruntled locals have reportedly crossed the mountainous southern borders of China to travel to the Islamic State to receive training and experience in jihadist warfare. This has been exacerbated by condemnations from both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State for China’s harsh treatment of its Uyghur Muslim population, and the Islamic State’s inclusion of Xinjiang in its map of its vision of a global caliphate. The Chinese government has blamed the recent rash of domestic terrorist attacks, including the 2013 Tiananmen Square and 2014 Kunming train station attacks, on Uyghur Muslim militants, and used these to justify a deeper crackdown on the community.11

Ironically, in the case of al-Shabab, it appears that the growing Chinese market for ivory has contributed to the group’s expansion. An investigation into the group’s funding has discovered that the illegal trade in ivory is one of its key sources of funding, with al-Shabab earning between 200,000 to 600,000 USD each month from ivory.12 China is one of the top Asian markets for illegal raw ivory, and the product sells for between 1,500 to 2,865 USD per kilogram. Following the government’s recent crackdown on luxury gift-giving, ivory carvings have risen in popularity as relatively safer gifts for government officials to exchange.13 The threat posed by al-Shabab to Chinese interests in East Africa would offer an important justification for the government to crack down on this trade.

The Risks to China’s East African Interests

With its increased economic engagement in countries affected by terrorism, China has to weigh the risks facing its investments against the potential benefits. In the case of Somalia, despite its short-term dangers, China sees a partner for long-term economic engagement. On October 12, 2014, China reopened its embassy in Mogadishu, which it had closed 23 years earlier in 1991 upon the outbreak of the Somali civil war.14 (The risk China has accepted with this reengagement is reflected in the car bombing that occurred in Mogadishu the very day China announced its plan to reopen its embassy.15) This diplomatic reengagement has been accompanied with a program of economic rehabilitation, including emergency cash aid as well as much-needed infrastructural development and the rebuilding of the country’s health and education systems.16 In contrast to Somalia, Kenya is of greater immediate economic importance for China, as is seen in its strategic location on China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.17 Kenya’s importance to China is also reflected in its debt to China, which has recently surpassed 100 billion Kenyan shillings. (As of this time of writing, 1000 Kenyan shillings are worth 66 Chinese Renminbi.) This debt has been used to finance infrastructural projects, including the Chinese-built Mombasa-Nairobi standard gauge railway, and is expected to increase to 2.9 trillion Kenyan shillings in 2015.18 These infrastructural development projects are having a multiplier effect on the Kenyan economy. In 2015 the Chinese steel company Sinosteel agreed to invest in a multibillion Kenyan shilling steel mill, to feed the growing demand for steel generated by infrastructural projects in Kenya and the region.19 Chinese investment in Kenya is not just at the level of infrastructural development. The Chinese government has just launched its fourth Confucius Institute in the country, at Moi University in Eldoret in western Kenya. This new Confucius Institute partners Donghua University in Shanghai, and while it offers the standard curriculum in Chinese language and culture, it also draws on Donghua University’s and Moi University’s strengths in textile science to accelerate cooperative ventures in fashion and textiles.20

While these projects face the threat of al-Shabab’s unpredictable violence, terrorism is not the only source of risk for Chinese investments in Kenya. In a recent incident, a Chinese restaurant inflamed anti-Chinese public sentiment by implementing a “no Africans after 5 PM” policy. Its public relations manager worsened the situation by explaining that this policy was implemented because the Chinese customers were afraid that an African patron could be an al-Shabab terrorist.21 The restaurant was promptly shut down and its Chinese owner arrested for not having a valid restaurant license.22 The Chinese embassy in Kenya had to repair the damage by issuing a public statement of regret and sternly warning other Chinese enterprises in the country against such misconduct. 23 However, public opinion in Kenya could turn against the Chinese again when the Venice Biennale opens in May 2015, as the artists presented at the Kenyan pavilion, including Qin Feng, Shi Jinsong, Li Zhanyang, Lan Zheng Hui, and Li Gang, are almost all Chinese artists who have never been to Africa nor refer to Africa in their artworks. The same happened at the previous Venice Biennale in 2013. This has already raised anger on Kenyan social media, and unhappy Kenyan artists are planning to stage protests at the exhibition when it opens.24 Potentially the most serious threat to Chinese investment in Kenya, outside of a terrorist attack, comes from Kenya’s anticorruption police, who have recently detailed allegations of corruption against government officials. Some of these involve Chinese infrastructural projects including the Mombasa-Nairobi standard gauge railway. Five government ministers have already been asked to take a temporary leave of office, and the full fallout of the investigation is still to unfold.25 The Chinese government will have to keep track of these unfolding events as they could potentially have a significant impact on the progress of Chinese investment projects in the country.

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Seldin, Jeff. “IS Likely Trying to Add al-Shabab to Its Ranks.” VOA, March 26, 2015. Accessed April 3, 2015. http://www.voanews.com/content/islamic-state-likely-trying-to-add-al-shabab-to-its-ranks/2695501.html.

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Wahito, Margaret. “Chinese steel maker to open mega plant in Kenya.” Capital FM Kenya, March 30, 2015. Accessed April 3, 2015. http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2015/03/chinese-steel-maker-to-open-mega-plant-in-kenya/.

Wangalwa, Elayne. “Kenya Owes China Billions.” CNBC Africa, March 31, 2015. Accessed April 3, 2015. http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2015/03/31/kenya-china-debt/.

Warner, Gregory. “Why Are Chinese Artists Representing Kenya At The Venice Biennale?” NPR, March 30, 2015. Accessed April 3, 2015. http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2015/03/30/396391120/why-are-chinese-artists-representing-kenya-at-the-venice-biennale.

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Notes:
1. Jessica Hatcher and Kevin Sieff, “Al-Shabab attacks Kenyan university, killing at least 147,” The Washington Post, April 2, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/70-killed-hundreds-rescued-after-kenya-university-attack-by-al-shabab-militants/2015/04/02/0c554516-d951-11e4-ba28-f2a685dc7f89_story.html. Jon Schuppe, “How Somalia’s Al Shabab Grew Into a Global Terror Threat,” NBC News, April 2, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-somalias-al-shabab-grew-global-terror-threat-n334856.

2 Schuppe, “How Somalia’s Al Shabab.” “Who are Somalia’s al-Shabab?” BBC, April 2, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-15336689.

3 “Who are Somalia’s.”

4 Jeff Seldin, “IS Likely Trying to Add al-Shabab to Its Ranks,” VOA, March 26, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.voanews.com/content/islamic-state-likely-trying-to-add-al-shabab-to-its-ranks/2695501.html.

5 Natalie Andrews and Felicia Schwartz, “Islamic State Pushes Social-Media Battle With West,” Wall Street Journal, August 22, 2014, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/isis-pushes-social-media-battle-with-west-1408725614. “More than 25,000 foreign fighters joining groups like Nusra and IS: UN,” Middle East Eye, April 3, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/more-25000-foreign-fighters-joining-groups-nusra-and-un-2032312568.

6 Joyce Hackel, “Al-Shabab are masters of terror — and masters of the media,” Public Radio International, April 2, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-04-02/al-shabab-are-masters-terror-and-masters-media.

7 Harun Maruf, “Experts Say al-Shabab-Islamic State Linkup ‘Unlikely,’” VOA, March 18, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.voanews.com/content/experts-say-al-shabab-islamic-state-linkup-unlikely/2684247.html.

8 “Will Somalia’s Al Shabaab take similar steps of Boko Haram to join ISIS,” Horseed Media, March 12, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://horseedmedia.net/2015/03/12/will-somalias-al-shabaab-take-similar-steps-of-boko-haram-to-join-is/.

9 Caroline Hellyer, “ISIL courts al-Shabab as al-Qaeda ties fade away,” Al Jazeera, March 23, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/03/isil-eyes-east-africa-foments-division-150322130940108.html. Sahra Abdi Ahmed, “Ex-Shabab Official Claims al-Qaida Ties Dissolved,” VOA, April 1, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.voanews.com/content/ex-shabab-official-claims-al-qaida-ties-dissolved/2702697.html. “Somalia: al-Shabaab leaders in squabble over joining IS,” Horseed Media, March 5, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://horseedmedia.net/2015/03/05/somalia-al-shabaab-leaders-in-squabble-over-joining-is/.

10 “Chinese ambassador condemns terrorist attack on Kenyan university,” Xinhua, April 3, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.ecns.cn/2015/04-03/160596.shtml.

11 Jack Moore, “Xinjiang’s Uighur Muslims Receiving ‘Terrorist Training’ From Isis Fighters for Attacks in China,” International Business Times, September 22, 2014, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/xinjiangs-uighur-muslims-receiving-terrorist-training-isis-fighters-attacks-china-1466594. Zachary Keck, “Al-Qaeda Declares War on China, Too,” The Diplomat, October 22, 2014, accessed April 3, 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/al-qaeda-declares-war-on-china-too/. Katie Hunt, “China executes Tiananmen Square attack ‘masterminds,’” CNN, August 25, 2014, accessed April 3, 2015, http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/24/world/asia/china-tiananmen-executions/. Katie Hunt, “China executes three for railway knife attack,” CNN, March 24, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/24/asia/china-kunming-executions/.

12 Nir Kalron and Andrea Crosta, “Africa’s White Gold of Jihad: al-Shabaab and Conflict Ivory: An Undercover Investigation on Ivory and Terrorism,” Elephant Action League, 2011-12, accessed April 3, 2015, http://elephantleague.org/project/africas-white-gold-of-jihad-al-shabaab-and-conflict-ivory/.

13 Gwynn Guilford, “China’s lust for ivory isn’t just slaughtering elephants. It’s also destabilizing Africa,” Quartz, August 7, 2013, accessed April 3, 2015, http://qz.com/112789/chinas-lust-for-ivory-isnt-just-slaughtering-elephants-its-also-destabilizing-africa/. Laurel Neme, “Al Shabaab and the Human Toll of the Illegal Ivory Trade,” National Geographic, October 3, 2013, accessed April 3, 2015, http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2013/10/03/al-shabaab-and-the-human-toll-of-the-illegal-ivory-trade/.

14 “China reopens embassy in Mogadishu after 23 years hiatus,” Xinhua, October 13, 2014, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-10/13/content_18730261.htm.

15 Janise Elie, “Somalia car bomb rips through market as China unveils embassy plans,” The Guardian, June 30, 2014, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jun/30/car-bomb-somalia-mogadishu-china-embassy.

16 “China donates $13 million to Somalia,” Horseed Media, April 1, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://horseedmedia.net/2015/04/01/china-donates-13-million-to-somalia/.

17 Alvin Cheng-Hin Lim, “Africa and China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” The Asia-Pacific Journal 13 (2015), accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.japanfocus.org/-Alvin_Cheng_Hin-Lim/4296.

18 Elayne Wangalwa, “Kenya Owes China Billions,” CNBC Africa, March 31, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2015/03/31/kenya-china-debt/.

19 Margaret Wahito, “Chinese steel maker to open mega plant in Kenya,” Capital FM Kenya, March 30, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2015/03/chinese-steel-maker-to-open-mega-plant-in-kenya/.

20 “Confucius Institute to boost Kenya-China textile ties,” Fibre2fashion, April 1, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=171510.

21 Njoki Chege, “Only ‘loyal’ African patrons are allowed in Chinese restaurant after sunset,” Daily Nation, March 23, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.nation.co.ke/counties/nairobi/Chinese-restaurant-no-African-after-5pm/-/1954174/2662642/-/svixtnz/-/index.html.

22 Murithi Mutiga, “‘No Africans’ Chinese restaurant owner arrested in Nairobi,” The Guardian, March 24, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/24/no-africans-restaurant-owner-arrested-nairobi-kenya?CMP=share_btn_tw.

23 “Spat over restaurant’s customer treatment not to affect Sino-Kenyan ties: embassy,” Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, March 30, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.focac.org/eng/zxxx/t1250452.htm.

24 Gregory Warner, “Why Are Chinese Artists Representing Kenya At The Venice Biennale?” NPR, March 30, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2015/03/30/396391120/why-are-chinese-artists-representing-kenya-at-the-venice-biennale.

25 “Kenya corruption watchdog implicates Chinese,” News24, March 31, 2015, accessed April 3, 2015, http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Kenya-corruption-watchdog-implicates-Chinese-20150331.