Iran’s Nuclear Deal And The ‘Obama Doctrine’ – Analysis

By Amin Tarzi*

The 2015 National Security Strategy of the United States recognizes the potential use of nuclear weapons and materials that pose a grave threat to national security by irresponsible states or terrorists. In the last decade and a half, two persistent nuclear proliferators have challenged existing international nonproliferation norms creating a potentially devastating security threat to the United States and many of its allies. This article will only focus on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear threat.[1] First, I will briefly review the attempts made by the United States and its allies to decrease the risk of a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Iran. Then, I will examine the dynamics that improved the likelihood of the Obama administration concluding a successful deal with Iran and the consequences it will have on US-Iran relations.

The Path to the Nuclear Deal with Iran

During his initial presidential campaign in 2007-08, Barack Obama repeatedly declared his intention to improve US-Iran relations, and he followed through after taking office. However, President Obama took a different approach than his predecessors. Previous US-Iran engagements maintained the US-stated intention of changing the nature of the Islamic regime in Iran, seeking global improvement on a host of issues, and kept the threat of military force ever-present. After the experiences in Afghanistan and especially in Iraq, Obama moved policies away from forcing unsavory regimes through military power to fall in line with Washington’s policies or interest. As such, Obama sought to assure not only the Iranian people but also its leadership that Washington’s intention was not to alter the nature of the Islamic Republic, but to engage the leadership in Tehran through dialogue and multilateralism. He narrowed the topic to encouraging a behavioral change on the specific issue of nuclear fuel enrichment. The US president’s policy approach to Iran’s nuclear question is the best-applied example of what is now known as the Obama Doctrine.

No matter who was at the helm in Washington and despite Obama’s demarches of goodwill, Iran’s political climate was not receptive to any serious dialogue with the United States throughout the beginning of the Obama administration. At the time, the Iranian regime faced one of the toughest challenges to its legitimacy and its most serious existential threat; Perhaps, as existential as the early days of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88. While attempts for dialogue were made, the highly irregular 2009 presidential elections in Iran, the ensuing mass protests, and the reelection of Mahmud Ahmadinejad slowed down and later reversed some of the initial constructive steps taken to resolve concerns on Iran’s nuclear program. The exceedingly confrontational international approach adopted by Tehran during the second term of Ahmadinejad, along with increasing human rights abuses inside Iran, allowed the United States to gather a hitherto unseen multilateral coalition to bring political and economic pressure on Iran. As a result, all major powers in the United Nations Security Council agreed to impose the toughest, most intrusive economic and political sanctions on Iran while it struggled with harsh economic conditions and social unrest. This resulted in increased popular disenchantment with the regime. Furthermore, Ahmadinejad’s relationship with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei entered into an openly confrontational stage, endangering the very core of the Islamic Republic system established in 1979.

As tensions increased in the latter years of Ahmadinejad’s second term, sentiments began to shift with regard to the West. It became more evident that there were more immediate threats to the system than the potential American-orchestrated regime change through soft power or military force. While Khamenei and his supporters continued to regard the United States as an existential threat to the regime, they calculated that change was necessary to survive. In Iran’s presidential elections of June 2013, the supreme leader, learned from his ill-fated open support of Ahmadinejad. He did not endorse candidates whose ideas closely aligned with his own and did not undermine the election of longtime regime insider Hasan Ruhani. President Ruhani’s political platform severed ties with the past and sought to engage the West with moderation to break the coordinated international sanctions, improve the country’s economy, and, ultimately, improve the survival of the regime. With Khamenei’s cautious blessing, Ruhani fully engaged with US on the nuclear topic by September 2013, initiated by his symbolic telephone conversation with Obama.

US-Iran Relations After the Nuclear Deal

For the United States, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known, has showcased the effectiveness of the core of Obama’s foreign policy. Obama’s foreign policy, mainly through multilateralism and diplomacy, demonstrates that sticky international problems can be resolved without military intervention. In this case, the Iranian ability to enrich nuclear fuel for military purposes has been diminished, and the United States averted another military entanglement in the Middle East. The JCPOA has limited Tehran’s ability to enrich uranium beyond 3.67 percent or to produce weapons-grade plutonium for the next 15 years. Furthermore, Iran’s breakout timeline has been extended from roughly 3 months to at least a year, if Tehran should decide to renege on its obligations under the JCPOA. Thus, the United States, through an international partnership, has most likely averted the possibility of a military engagement with Iran over that country’s possession of enough nuclear fuel for one or more weapons. This proved to be a victorious moment for the Obama administration.

Moreover, it is a bit problematic that the deal has not completely eradicated the capable threat but has only slowed it down. The JCPOA does not cover Iran’s quest to enhance its technological expertise to produce more accurate and longer-range delivery systems for potential nuclear weapons in the future or to design warheads capable of accommodating nuclear devices. In October 2015, Iran tested a newer version of its Shehab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile named Emad. If the Emad were capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, as suggested by observers, it would constitute as a violation of a UN Security Council Resolution. The Iranian authorities have indicated that Russia had begun delivery of the S-300 air-defense missile system to Iran, a prospect that Moscow halted during the nuclear negotiations.

Furthermore, the JCPOA has not completely improved relations with the United States. Fearing what Khamenei believes is the United States’ soft power approach designed to undermine the nature of the Islamic Republic, he banned all contact with the US on any matter not related to the JCPOA and ordered against making commercial deals with US firms. In regional issues ranging from Syria to Saudi Arabia and dealing with ISIL, Tehran has adopted a more confrontational approach.

In conclusion, it is not certain what the future will be for US-Iranian relations. Iran will be expected to abide by the JCPOA. Beyond that, the future depends on several factors, the more immediate of which follow. The role Iran chooses to play in the Syrian conflict and in the war against ISIL will shape relations. Furthermore, both countries have upcoming elections whose results will foreshadow future relations. Elections on the parliamentary and Guardian Council elections will begin in Iran, however the majority of the reformist candidates have already been disqualified. The outcome of the US presidential elections will begin and could bring forth a more assertive, if not activist, US role in the Middle East dismantling the current hard earned progress.

*Dr. Amin Tarzi
Senior Fellow, Program on the Middle East
Foreign Policy Research Institute

[1] The other nuclear threat is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and will not be discussed in this summary.


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One thought on “Iran’s Nuclear Deal And The ‘Obama Doctrine’ – Analysis

  • March 16, 2016 at 6:49 pm
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    Please forgive my simplistic and ignorant understanding of this. U.S. wants Iranian oil, but they want it denominated in U.S. Dollars on World Markets, so they, through various corrupt mechanisms behind the “U.S. Dollar”, in fact underwrite this U.S. currency, manipulate it to the U.S.’s advantage, “skim” from every oil sale to finance their world wide warring, and to allow Americans to “Live Higher On The Hog”, allow Americans to have more than others, without making any effort, without depleting their own resources, without contributing to mankind in any way. Americans use 1940’s, 50’s, level nuclear technologies as a lever, while in fact: China has waste free, High temperature, pebble bed, gas moderated, reactors up and running and online, and Russia is almost there with their nuclear technologies? China took Alvin Weinberg’s (U S rejected design, 1990’s) LFTR reactors into the 21st century and have great success in this region of nuclear development, as does Russia. USA abandoned this chemical reactor technology because it did not produce bomb grade plutonium – it did however produce safe electricity? China now mass produces fighter planes with immensely stronger “supply line/manufacturing capability” and with shared Russian jet engine technologies have long outstriped the U.S. and it’s failed F-35 jets. Russia seeks/trains manufacturing skills in India now to mass produce very similar fighters, and as for missiles both China and Russia have far more and far better than the U.S. can afford to develop due to their greedy Financial Classes and the skimming and corruption that impedes U.S.progress(Google F-35 corruption)
    Iran is left wanting 1960’s U.S. cultural possessions, Cadillacs et al, while U.S. no longer leads the world in its glitzy 1960’s culture and this culture is in fact dead in the U.S.A. Most Americans drive European/Asian cars wear clothes from Asia and produce very little industrial goods relative to Europe and Asia now? Just what has the U.S. forbidden Iran to import? I see this as a toothless embargo since most these goods are available from Asian manufacturers now, and American manufacturing is essentially closed down? Would Iran not be far better off, turning to Asia and the Russian Chines alliances? China’s road for commerce needs support from Iran more than any involvement with the U.S. “pirates”?
    Some interesting reads here:
    ( http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4971 )
    “It is imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges, capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America… In that context, how America ‘manages’ Eurasia is critical… the three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.”
    – Zbigniew Brezinski, The Grand Chessboard
    Also:
    “”In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, Brzezinski argued that “the struggle for global primacy [would] continue to be played” on the Eurasian “chessboard,” of which “Ukraine was a geopolitical pivot.” “If Moscow regains control over Ukraine,” he wrote at the time, Russia would “automatically regain the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.” “”

    In light of the Russian/Chinese alliances I suspect that the U.S. has lost a lot of its stature and Iran can likely do better in this new Pan Asian alliance than with 1960’s trinkets now manufactured in China anyway and sold under U.S. Brand names only.

    Reply

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