China’s Panchsheel Gambit: Xi Jinping’s Tactical Deception – OpEd
Despite Xi Jinping’s Panchsheel eulogy strategic community notes China’s consistent “salami slicing” strategy—a methodical approach to altering territorial boundaries through incremental actions, avoiding full-scale conflict while steadily advancing its interests. This tactic has been evident not only in the Sino-Indian disputes but also in the broader South China Sea context, showcasing China’s adeptness at strategic manoeuvring. Xi’s eulogy carries deeper implications for India’s defence, border security, and territorial integrity. This analysis examines the strategic implications of Xi’s words, considering the fragile political landscape in India post-elections.
Unveiling the Strategy Behind Xi’s Panchsheel Eulogy
Xi Jinping’s recent praise of Nehruvian Panchsheel principles—mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence—demands a critical and nuanced analysis. This politically motivated reference to the Panchsheel Pact, which has long been touted as the bedrock of Sino-Indian relations, comes at a time when the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tension and mistrust.
Historical Backdrop
The historical backdrop of the 1962 Sino-Indian War serves as a stark reminder of the risks associated with underestimating adversarial intentions. Then-Defence Minister Krishna Menon’s acknowledgment of India’s lack of readiness for a large-scale conflict underscores the peril of relying solely on diplomatic assurances from global powers to restrain Chinese aggression. The conflict exposed India’s strategic vulnerabilities and underscored the consequences of misjudging geopolitical dynamics.
China’s recent evocation of Panchsheel principles amidst ongoing territorial assertiveness in Ladakh and Tibet highlights a dual-track strategy of diplomatic overtures and military advancement. This strategic ambiguity challenges India’s perception of Chinese restraint and underscores the need for robust defence preparedness. India’s dependency on Russian military supplies, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions, further complicates its strategic posture, potentially leaving it vulnerable to shifting geopolitical alignments involving Beijing and Moscow.
Xi’s Panchsheel Narrative: A Political Ploy
Xi Jinping’s homage to Panchsheel can be interpreted as a sophisticated political manoeuvre designed to serve multiple objectives:
Soft Power and Moral High Ground: By invoking Panchsheel, Xi aims to project China as a principled and peace-loving nation. This narrative seeks to mask China’s aggressive posturing and territorial ambitions, particularly in the context of its actions in the South China Sea and the ongoing border standoff with India.
Exploiting Internal Divisions: The political landscape in India post-2024 elections is fragile, with significant domestic challenges. By emphasizing Panchsheel, Xi attempts to exploit internal divisions within India, appealing to factions that may favor a more conciliatory approach towards China. This could destabilize the current government’s stance and create rifts within the political and strategic community.
Deflecting International Criticism: Amidst global scrutiny over its human rights record, particularly in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and its assertive policies in the Indo-Pacific, China seeks to deflect criticism by highlighting its supposed commitment to peaceful coexistence. Panchsheel serves as a convenient rhetorical tool in this regard.
Strategic Deception: The Reality of China’s Intentions
Despite the lofty rhetoric, China’s actions on the ground tell a different story. The aggressive manoeuvres in Eastern Ladakh, the bloody clash in Galwan Valley in 2020, and the attempted seizure of Yangtse in 2022 are stark reminders of China’s strategic duplicity. These actions are inconsistent with the Panchsheel principles and underscore China’s strategy of incremental territorial gains, often referred to as “salami slicing.”
China’s infrastructure build-up along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), including airbases, heliports, and all-weather roads, further indicates a long-term strategic intent that goes beyond mere border skirmishes. This military buildup contradicts the peaceful coexistence narrative and highlights the importance of India maintaining a robust and vigilant defence posture.
Economic Implications and Strategic Autonomy
India’s reliance on Russian military hardware, exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, presents a significant strategic vulnerability. This dependency not only affects India’s defence preparedness but also limits its strategic autonomy. Xi’s Panchsheel narrative could be an attempt to exploit this vulnerability by offering a veneer of peaceful intentions while continuing to strengthen China’s strategic position.
To counter this, India must diversify its defence procurement and enhance domestic defence production capabilities. Strengthening alliances with like-minded countries is also crucial in balancing China’s regional influence.
Political Impact: Destabilizing India’s Post-Election Landscape
In the post-2024 election scenario, India faces a delicate balance of maintaining internal stability while addressing external threats. Xi’s Panchsheel eulogy, if not critically examined, could resonate with certain political factions advocating for a less confrontational approach towards China. This could undermine the current government’s efforts to forge a cohesive national security strategy.
The political opposition in India might leverage Xi’s statements to criticize the government’s handling of Sino-Indian relations, potentially leading to a fragmented policy approach. This internal discord could weaken India’s position in negotiations and diminish its ability to respond effectively to Chinese provocations.
The Need for Vigilance and Realism
Xi Jinping’s references to the Panchsheel Policy, while seemingly a call for peace and cooperation, must be viewed with scepticism given China’s historical and recent actions along the Sino-Indian border. India needs to remain vigilant and not fall into the trap of comforting assumptions about China’s intentions. A robust defence strategy, realistic assessment of geopolitical alliances, and a strong domestic consensus on national security are crucial to countering the multifaceted threat posed by China.
India must learn from its historical experiences and recognize the strategic nuances behind China’s diplomatic overtures. Only through a combination of military readiness, strategic alliances, and internal political cohesion can India effectively navigate the complex dynamics of Sino-Indian relations and safeguard its national interests.
