Theory Of Chaos: Geopolitical And Social Changes – OpEd


If society is considered as an open, complex and dynamic system.  This system is attributed the quality of both organizing and disorganizing.  Constructive chaos occurs when there is an attempt to harness these destructive and seemingly random forces, for strategic purposes.

The chaos strategy proposes the artificial creation of chaos and violence in a country or areas that are considered objective, through an unconventional war, this is the use of different methods to achieve internal convulsions that influence within a target country or the use of  armed intermediaries to lead to a civil war scenario in a target country.  It is a standardized approach to the change of government or the political collapse of a country or region.

Chaos theory aroused great interest from a sector of the American elite.  Different authors, academics, military and “decision makers” took theoretical premises of it to understand the mechanics of social movements in countries and operate on them to obtain certain objectives.  They would formulate their application as a strategy, through a built chaos, for the achievement of American geostrategic interests.

These models begin with the introduction of a color revolution, or a “spring”, some kind of revolt or popular demonstration, as an attempt of a soft coup, which could then be followed by a hard blow, through an unconventional war  If the first fails, populations are induced to social engineering methods and hybrid wars, they can escalate into violence, produce civil wars, the results are the change of government or the collapse of the State itself.

If this sequence is repeated in several countries of the same region, we can talk about areas that are not integrated (Gap) under Barnett’s parameters.

Chaos theory applied as a strategy is a form of social engineering.

Based on a comparison of the main guidelines of the strategy of chaos and hybrid warfare, we find under deduction that chaos theory is understood as a variant of the hybrid and fourth generation paradigm of wars.  The objective is to change the regime of a country marked as objective, but it should not be ruled out that the collapse of the state structure is not a desired objective.

As we have observed in all these cases, Chaos Theory has been used as a geostrategic foundation of the US to strengthen its role as a global hegemon after the Cold War, mainly in the Middle East area.

Chaos theory seeks to provoke, induce attitudes, behaviors, through social engineering to the population of a target country in addition to infiltrating external elements, violence spreads like a computer virus, the expected result is that the system will “reset/restart”  with a change of government or such a state disintegrated.  If that is the last case it will also be favorable for the US anyway.

Based on the historical methodology to analyze, and the prospective methodology to project, based on trend tracking.  Its future use in other scenarios is not ruled out.  Just as Arab springs and color revolutions have occurred in the former Soviet space, this does not mean that they cannot be developed outside those geographical areas, according to the interests of contenders fighting for their interests.  Many of these patterns mentioned above are observed in Venezuela to date. 

Chaos theory and strategy is a paradigmatic methodology of the US, in the geopolitical plane its main objective is the fragmentation and fracturing of the Eurasian belt.

We must emphasize that this search for an unquestionable American unipolar hegemony project found its counterweight in recent years with the participation and active intervention in various scenarios and global situations of China and Russia, which to date seem to seek to consolidate a strategic partnership.

*Carlos Pereyra Mele is director at

Note: Work from Dossier Geopolitico Staff presented on July 25 in the City of Asunción in the Congress Organized by the Association of Political Science of Paraguay: “30 years of Democracy”. And is part of a saga of the recent article by Dr. Miguel A. Barrios on: “The USA and the promotion of Hybrid Wars” that describes how the empire exercises the Chaos Theory promoting “Terrorism”, as domination tool.-

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