A New Era: Ukraine Halts Gas Transit, Ending Russia’s Energy Dominance – OpEd

For more than two decades, Russia has used its energy resources as a tool to exert pressure on Eastern Europe. As part of this strategy, President Vladimir Putin poured billions into the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline to bypass Ukraine. However, Ukraine has now taken a historic step by halting Russia’s ability to export gas directly to Europe, effectively ending Moscow’s long-standing dominance in the European energy market.

As of 1 January 2025, gas transit from Russia to Europe via Ukraine has ceased entirely. Ukraine’s Naftogaz declined to renew its transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom, which had been in place since 2019. This decision marks the end of a five-decade-long energy partnership.

Europe’s Energy Transition

The collapse of Russia’s dominance in the energy market is the result of Europe’s efforts to diversify its energy sources. However, this shift has increased Europe’s reliance on more expensive US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Rising energy costs, particularly during winter, are expected to place a significant financial burden on European consumers.

Faced with the loss of the European market, Moscow is pivoting towards Asia, particularly China. However, these new agreements are far less lucrative than previous sales to Europe. The resulting decline in energy revenues significantly hampers Russia’s ability to fund its military operations, including its ongoing war in Ukraine.

The Strategic Role of Ukraine and the US

Ukraine’s decision to halt transit will result in a substantial loss of revenue, but it hopes to mitigate this through financial aid from the United States. Critics argue that this move is also part of a broader US strategy to pressure countries like Slovakia and Hungary, which have resisted purchasing American LNG in favour of alternative energy sources.

Russia’s weaponisation of energy has ultimately backfired, delivering a significant blow to Moscow’s influence. Europe has taken a critical step toward reducing its dependence on Russian gas, bolstering its energy security. However, this new reality comes with higher costs, which will likely be borne by European citizens.

As Europe navigates its energy crisis, supporting vulnerable countries like Moldova and ensuring transparency in energy policies will be crucial for maintaining stability and security across the continent.

Türkiye’s Strategic Role

With the Nord Stream pipelines decommissioned and Ukrainian routes closed, the Turkish Stream pipeline now serves as the only remaining connection for Russian gas to reach the European Union.

This development underscores a recurring theme: Europe’s increasing dependence on Turkey for strategic issues. From immigration to energy, the continent now finds itself reliant on Ankara’s cooperation to address critical challenges.