Iran On The Brink: Not War, Not Appeasement: Change By Iranian People And Organized Resistance – OpEd

Iran stands today at its most critical juncture in recent history. A multifaceted crisis—economic collapse, social unrest, political paralysis, and growing geopolitical pressure—has weakened the clerical regime to an unprecedented degree. As the country reels from the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes on nuclear and military facilities, and with European powers threatening to trigger the UN “snapback” mechanism, the question is no longer if change will come, but how and by whom?

The Middle East has already seen what externally imposed regime change looks like. Iraq and Libya were cautionary tales. Foreign military interventions toppled dictators, only to unleash chaos, civil wars, and foreign domination. The Iranian people remember well: freedom does not come from bombs dropped by “liberators,” nor from puppets groomed abroad.

In this context, a recent message from Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), makes a vital point:

“The ceasefire proposal and the end of the war are a step forward toward the third option: no to war, no to appeasement. Let the Iranian people themselves overthrow the regime of the Supreme Leader in their battle for freedom.”

This position is not only principled—it is practical, historically grounded, and nationally legitimate. But Why This Path Is Viable—And Urgent?

Because Revolutions need two key elements:

1. Objective conditions — structural crisis, irreversibility of the status quo

2. Subjective conditions — public readiness, and a credible alternative leadership

Today, both elements are present in Iran.

Economic Freefall

Iran’s economy is imploding. Despite vast oil wealth, decades of mismanagement, systemic corruption, and global sanctions have decimated the middle class and destroyed hope for the youth.

GDP: $434 billion

Youth unemployment: over 20%

Inflation: over 40%

Rent burden: 45% of household income

Income inequality: 1% of the population owns 30% of national wealth

Nuclear Misadventure: A 2-Trillion-Dollar Failure

Iran’s nuclear program has proven to be a historic blunder. Experts estimate that over $2 trillion in direct and indirect losses have resulted from this pursuit—including sanctions, lost oil revenue, military spending, and the eventual destruction of infrastructure in recent airstrikes.

In 2025 alone, Israeli and American strikes reportedly destroyed major sites in Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Karaj, and Bushehr, along with dozens of command and control canters of the IRGC.

This was never about energy or defence. It was about the regime’s desperate attempt at survival through intimidation.

Geopolitical Isolation

Since the start of the 2023 Gaza war, Iran’s regional influence has sharply declined. Billions poured into Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shia militias failed to yield strategic gains. As Thomas Friedman observed:

“Iran’s retaliations amounted to little more than a fireworks display—sound and light, but no substance.”

The regime finds itself cornered: militarily vulnerable, diplomatically isolated, and socially despised.

A Society Poised for Revolution

Iran’s people have risen repeatedly: in 2017, 2019, and most recently in the 2022 nationwide uprising. These were not calls for reform—but cries for regime change. That anger is now increasingly organized through resistance networks and underground cells, known as the Resistance Units.

Manufactured Alternatives: A Dangerous Illusion

In parallel, certain Western and monarchist circles are attempting to present Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former dictator (Shah), as a “transitional figure.” Lacking any political credibility, leadership record, or grassroots base, he relies on media campaigns, foreign PR consultants, and vague promises of “unity” to gain relevance.

Recently, he claimed that “elements within Iran’s military” were contacting him—a narrative eerily similar to the infamous case of Sardar Madhi, a regime agent who posed as a defector in 2009 to infiltrate opposition networks abroad.

As Massoud Rajavi, the historical leader of the Iranian Resistance, noted sarcastically:

“As if ‘General Madhi’ has once again risen from the grave, sent by ‘Prince Mojtaba’ to serve the Shah’s heir in this ‘historic transformation.’”

Such projects are distractions—aimed at hijacking the people’s revolution and replacing one dictatorship with another foreign-sponsored figurehead.

The Real Alternative: A Democratic Republic, Led by the People

In stark contrast, the NCRI and its resistance movement offer a clear, viable, and time-tested alternative. Led by Maryam Rajavi, this coalition has:

A ten-point democratic plan for Iran’s future

A 40-year record of principled resistance

A nationwide network of Resistance Units

No foreign sponsors, no hidden agendas

The vision includes: A secular, democratic republic, Gender equality and the abolition of discriminatory laws, Abolition of the death penalty, Autonomy for Iran’s ethnic minorities, Free elections and an independent judiciary, Economic reconstruction with social justice at its core

The Future Belongs to the People of Iran and The only path forward is the one carved by the Iranian people themselves—through resistance, sacrifice, and an unshakable desire for freedom.

“No to war. No to appeasement. Yes to democratic change—by the people, for the people.”