The Strategic Defeat Of Iran’s Regime In The Region: Consequences And Implications – OpEd
The Iranian regime, already mired in insurmountable domestic crises and faced with persistent uprisings that have pushed it to the brink of collapse, sought to shift the narrative through regional conflict. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, seemingly with Tehran’s endorsement, aiming to achieve two goals:
1. Suppress internal dissent and prevent renewed uprisings.
2. Create a regional distraction, hoping the conflict would result in a temporary or permanent ceasefire, ultimately allowing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to solidify his rule.
However, this gambit miscalculated the response of Israel’s right-wing government, which identified Iran as the mastermind behind the attack. Israel resolved to neutralize the threat posed by Iran’s regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah, Iran’s most valuable militant asset in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s Retreat: A Strategic Blow
Despite Tehran’s initial attempts to keep Hezbollah out of full-scale conflict, the flames of war engulfed the group, leading to devastating losses. Within two months, Hezbollah was forced to sign a ceasefire with Israel. This retreat underscored the regime’s declining influence in a changing Middle East.
Simultaneously, the situation in Syria spiralled out of Tehran’s control. Emboldened by Hezbollah’s setbacks, Syrian opposition forces launched a surprise offensive, recapturing key areas like Aleppo and Hama. The Iranian regime’s investments in Syria, once a symbol of its regional dominance, crumbled in mere days.
Domestic Implications of Regional Losses
The regime’s strategic depth is collapsing, further fuelling domestic unrest. Social dissatisfaction, driven by economic crises, has reached boiling point. Iranian regime President Masoud Pezeshkian recently admitted to the growing crises:
“Forty-five years after the revolution, our problems worsen daily. If we had chosen the right path, why are we here? Clearly, we are at fault.”
Economic mismanagement, exemplified by ballooning debt and failing institutions, exacerbates the regime’s fragility. The conservative-dominated parliament, fearful of the nation’s explosive socio-economic conditions, has turned against Pezeshkian’s administration, rejecting key legislative reforms. Protests across Iran continue to highlight the population’s demand for systemic change.
Mounting International Pressure
On the international stage, Iran faces renewed scrutiny over its nuclear ambitions. On November 21, the IAEA issued its second resolution in five months, condemning Tehran’s lack of transparency regarding undeclared nuclear sites. The regime also risks the activation of the “snapback mechanism,” which could reimpose comprehensive international sanctions.
Europe, historically favouring diplomacy with Iran, is shifting its stance. A conference in Brussels, attended by Maryam Rajavi and European Parliament members, underscored this policy shift. The conference highlighted the need for a tougher approach to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities and support for a democratic alternative.
A Democratic Alternative: A Vision for Post-Regime Iran
Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), outlined a roadmap for Iran’s transition to democracy during the Brussels conference. Her plan includes:
1. A six-month transitional government tasked with organizing elections for a constitutional assembly.
2. Dissolution of the NCRI upon the assembly’s formation, transferring power to elected representatives.
3. Drafting a new constitution and holding a referendum to establish a democratic republic.
Rajavi emphasized the NCRI’s commitment to a society based on freedom, equality, and the rule of law, rejecting all forms of dictatorship. Key tenets of her vision include gender equality, freedom of speech, separation of religion and state, and the abolition of the death penalty.
Conclusion
The Iranian regime’s regional losses and escalating domestic and international crises signal an irreversible decline. As Tehran struggles to maintain control, the possibility of a democratic transition grows stronger. The alternative proposed by the NCRI offers a hopeful vision for an Iran free from oppression, poised to re-join the global community as a peaceful and democratic nation.
