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Iran Bracing For War? – OpEd

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By Ilya Kharlamov

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that as of March 2012, Tehran will increase its military spending by more than two-fold. Meanwhile, US strategic bombers have already been deployed in Qatar in a sign that a military operation of Western countries and Israel against Iran may be on cards. Its regional and global repercussions will be unpredictable, experts warn.

The United States and its allies continue to dispatch troops and military hardware to the Gulf region. More servicemen have been deployed to the Omani island of Masirah where a US military base is operating. Additionally, more than 10,000 US soldiers have been stationed in Israel to test this Middle Eastern country’s missile defense system. Another 15,000 US servicemen have been based in Kuwait.

Hundreds of concrete-piercing bombs have been supplied to a US military base on the Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and two US aircraft carrier battle groups are currently on a mission in the Gulf. They are expected to be strengthened by one more aircraft carrier, the Annapolis nuclear-powered submarine and the Momsen destroyer. A US military base in Qatar already sees the stationing of several bombers, cargo planes and long-range drones. In the meantime, France and Britain have also dispatched their troops to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

All this indicates the US’ and Israel’s readiness to use force against Iran, believes Professor Sergei Druzhilovsky of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

“A military conflict [in Iran] may well be on cards, Druzhilovsky says, referring to Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya where the US military practiced military aspects of blitzkrieg and pinpoint attacks. The problem, however, is that unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has no fifth column, a group of people who are, along with America, ready to topple the regime. In this regard, pinpoint air strikes on Iran are irrelevant because there is nothing to bomb in the Islamic Republic, and because the main goal is to depose the regime which remains a major irritant both for America and the West. And the question is whether Iranian people are ready to fend off an aggression or not,” Druzhilovsky concludes.

Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence agency has alleged that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make at least 4 atom bombs, and that Tehran’s statements on a peaceful nature of its nuclear program are little more than a bluff. Such misinformation is needed to tarnish Iran’s political image and justify a military operation against the Islamic Republic, believes Vladimir Sotnikov from the Moscow-based Institute for Oriental Studies. In an interview with the Voice of Russia aired on Friday, he also said that the military operation against Iran is likely.

“The situation is tense, and the beginning of a military operation of Israel or the United States against Iran may be in the offing, Sotnikov says. On the other hand, the start of an active phase of the pre-election campaign in the US may prompt President Obama to decide against getting involved in another military conflict now that such conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are yet to be resolved. As for Israel, it may well refer to the use of force against Iran which is believed to be Israel’s arch-foe. Meanwhile, harsh sanctions, which were earlier slapped on the Islamic Republic, have already damaged the Iranian economy. If these hotheads ignore warnings by Russia, China and other responsible members of the international community and decide on a military interference against Iran, the consequences will be serious. This is fraught with not only a regional conflict but a humanitarian catastrophe in the entire Middle East as well. This is a threat to international stability,” Sotnikov warns.

Economic implications will also be unpredictable because global oil prices are all but sure to skyrocket, analysts say, adding that the EU embargo on Iranian oil will ride roughshod over interests of both Iran and EU countries.

Although avoiding a new military conflict is still possible, hopes are fading with every passing day. On February 21, a delegation of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts is due to arrive in Tehran to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. Herman Nackaerts, head of the IAEA delegation, said that the IAEA wants Tehran to elaborate on all contentious issues pertaining to its atomic program. Many remain downbeat about the results of the discussion given a recent report by the IAEA where the UN nuclear watchdog alleged that Iran’s nuclear program aims to obtain a nuclear weapon.

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VOR

VOR, or the Voice of Russia, was the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service from 1993 until 2014, when it was reorganised as Radio Sputnik.

8 thoughts on “Iran Bracing For War? – OpEd

  • February 5, 2012 at 2:27 am
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    the only conclusion after this war would be…

    1. demise of Israel
    2. mass destruction of Iran but survive.
    3. USA in tailspin to be another Zimababwe ..

    Millions of US and Iranian and Israelis plus civilians will be dead.

    Length of war ..not a few days or months Israel wants… but 10 years.

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 6:43 am
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    Obama is irrelevant, because the POTUS is nothing more than a talking head and puppet for the ruling elite, the Oligarchs who actually run the USA.

    The USA is the only nation that ever used nuclear weapons, and the USA, NATO, and Israel are the worst aggressor nations, post-WW2. Where are the sanctions against Israel, for its several hundred nuclear warheads?

    Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya were all nations that posed no threat to their neighbors or to the USA. Now the Evil Empire led by the USA, NATO, and Israel want to rape Iran. Those who love peace and justice side with Iran.

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 8:15 am
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    This is a war which is unnecessary. US wants to rule the world. This could have been possible 10, 20 years ago. But not now. Russia and China will be certainly involved. Iran is not a third world country. It has the capacity to survive. I predict that most of Israel and Iran may be bombed out and the US will certainly not the winner of this war. I hope and pray that logic prevails in the heads of the US/Israeli and Western leaders’ brain. The people in the Western world must rise up against their leaders.

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 9:51 am
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    Right on the money Joe. Attack may be on Iran and Syria simultaneously while the Pakis might need to watch a US grab on their nukes.Depending on Chinese and Paki involvement, China could take Taiwan in the fray and an already enraged Pakistan might make a move on Kashmir ‘cos the US-Israeli attack on Iran will be existential war for this country and Pakistan may feel the same so it’s claws out for these nations.Pakistan may put those Nukes atop Iran Shahabs… It surely will be a new world order after that.US economically bust,Israel gone,China and Russia stronger

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 4:11 pm
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    Though Europe and the United States are accelerating economic sanctions in an effort to appease Israel, it plans to attack Iran anyway.  One might start to wonder which of these two is now the more rogue state in the Middle East.
    Should Israel surgically attack Iran, as it had done Iraq twenty years ago, we can expect Iran to return fire.   And Iran might have unknown weapons in its arsenal and unknown ways to use them. 
    The question then becomes to what extent do we help Israel when it picks a fight with Iran?
    If the U.S. helps it unconditionally, as it had done before, then we risk retaliation from Iran on our nearby facilities. The same is true for european countries which are all within a striking distance of Iran.  
    So what do we do, sit back and not help a friend trying to make the world a safer place for the rest of us?
    In this case, perhaps. 
    If Israel wants to bomb Iran on its own terms, when it wants to and how it wants to, then it can also stand ready to fend for itself when Iran returns fire.  To let it assume otherwise is irresponsible since it encourages rogue action on the expectation of help.  With the world on the mend from a profound economic downturn, such foreseeable misstep should be avoided. 
    Does this mean then that we  should resign ourselves to a nuclear Iran? George W. Bush may have thought so, as he may have thought the same about a nuclear North Korea.   And despite his and Dick Cheney’s professed love for Israel, they might have been looking for new friend in the Middle East when they toppled Saddam.  Iraq did not prove a friend, but it has proved that U.N. inspections can work because the UN teams had destroyed all of its weapons of mass destruction. 
    Who knows, in time our economic sanctions might also slow down Iran.  If not, having nuclear Iran —  or nuclear anyone else — is something the rest of us can learn to live with. 
    Maybe Israel should too.  And conduct itself accordingly.  

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 5:06 pm
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    Hmmmm

    Israel is attacking Iran to ensure that israel remains in total control of the middle east. israel is not attacking Iran to preserve “peace” On the contrary israel is attacking Iran to ensure continued war… America should be planning to attack and destroy israel. israel is the biggest terrorist state in the middle east by far and should be dealt with the same as any other rogue terrorist state.

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm
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    Isreal is no friend to the US, but it may prove to be its nemisis.

    You can only bully other nations so long and then the tide turns.

    I think this time the world will see tha US and Isreal as the aggressors and so will Russia and China. After the dust settles, if any of us are left, the new super-powers will be China and Russia. Sadly, if the US and Israel attack another country unprovoked, they will reap what they have sown.

    Let us pray that Americans finally wake up and call a halt to Israel’s madness controlling their country.

    Reply
  • February 5, 2012 at 6:54 pm
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    What all these American war armchair dolts dont realize is this war is coming home. When( Not IF anymore) Iran is attacked , 9-11 will look like a Holiday.From Dirty bombs, Chemical/ Bio Weapons threats,Bridges being blown up , Mall Bombs , Infrastructure attacks , its time to face the music . This war will become worldwide…..

    Reply

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