ISSN 2330-717X

Anbound Releases Prediction And Assessment Of Wuhan Pneumonia – OpEd


Based on the first assessment on January 23, Anbound has conducted the second assessment on January 29 with mathematical models. The assessment results show that the number of confirmed cases in the final stage of the epidemic will be about 29,000.

The second assessment of this data is higher than the first assessment by nearly 10,000. Mortality data will rise from 500 to 900 cases simultaneously, an increase from the 300-500 cases in the first phase.

Concerning the time period of the epidemic, the assessment shows that the peak of the epidemic will appear after 10-14 days, and it will be around February 5-9, which is longer than most predicted period, and the epidemic will gradually decline after that.

However, as the new coronavirus is now known to be weaker than SARS, it is expected that measures to control the epidemic will continue for a period of time.

Under the condition of smaller scale, the numbers of cases will be alternately rising and decreasing.

China’s overall expenditure to battle the epidemic is expected to be more than 100 billion yuan, a figure greatly exceeds the first period of assessment data.

In terms of the impact of economic growth, the second assessment concluded that the impact on economic growth was 0.5% -1.2%. Among them, the consumption during the Spring Festival is hit hard. Tourism, catering and movies are the most affected sectors, with the scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan.

The economic growth in the first quarter is likely to fall below 5%. This assessment result is slightly lower than the 0.5% -1% assessment result in the first period.

The above results are part of the information tracking research, which is an empirical research and is solely for reference only.

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Anbound Consulting (Anbound) is an independent Think Tank with the headquarter based in Beijing. Established in 1993, Anbound specializes in public policy research, and enjoys a professional reputation in the areas of strategic forecasting, policy solutions and risk analysis. Anbound's research findings are widely recognized and create a deep interest within public media, academics and experts who are also providing consulting service to the State Council of China.

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