Russia Energy Profile: Energy Flows To Europe Decrease, While Increase To India And China – Analysis

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In 2021, Russia was the third-largest energy producer and energy consumer in the world.   

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Following the invasion, the United States enacted a range of sanctions targeting Russian trade, broad economic sectors, and specific entities.1

The European Union (EU), Russia’s main market for its energy exports and source for export-based revenues, also implemented several rounds of increasingly punitive sanctions and restrictive measures in response to the February 2022 invasion. Notably, initial rounds of EU sanctions disconnected 10 leading Russian financial institutions from SWIFT and banned coal imports from Russia.2

In early June 2022, the European Union (EU) passed its sixth sanctions package against Russia, which included a complete ban on all seaborne crude oil and petroleum product imports from Russia into the EU. The sixth sanctions package also banned EU-based companies from providing any maritime transport services for petroleum cargoes from Russia.3

Because companies in the EU, the United Kingdom, and Norway have significant market share in the global maritime insurance and shipping industry, the sixth sanctions package prompted concerns that those sanctions could severely restrict oil flows from Russia and cause global oil prices to increase.4 As a result, in late June 2022, the Group of Seven (G7) countries announced they would explore a global price cap on crude oil and refined products from Russia. The price cap would allow all members of the G7 to impose their own maritime services ban on oil flows from Russia, unless those cargoes are sold at or below a pre-determined price. The goal for this initiative was to prevent potential oil price increases by providing a way for Russia’s oil to continue flowing on the market while limiting the amount Russia could earn for its oil exports.

In early October 2022, the EU passed its eighth sanctions package, which codified the price cap initiative, and the G7 officially agreed to an initial crude oil price cap of $60/barrel in early December 2022.5 The price cap for Russia’s crude oil came into force on December 5, 2022, and the price cap for Russia’s refined products will become effective on February 5, 2023.6

A number of international energy companies have withdrawn or curtailed their Russia-based operations as well. BP, Equinor, Shell, Eni, and ExxonMobil have initiated total divestment from Russian assets. Total Energies, OMV, and Wintershall Dea have paused new investments in Russia.

Energy flows from Russia to Europe decreased starting in February 2022, but Russia increased trade with countries where it can sell and ship, mostly to China and India.

Petroleum and other liquids

Russia’s proved oil reserves were 80 billion barrels as of January 1, 2023.7 Russian firms Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, Gazprom, and Tatneft account for a majority of total crude oil production.

The Russian government released its Energy Strategy to 2035 in June 2020. The strategy seeks to diversify energy exports, modernize energy infrastructure, increase national competitiveness, and accelerate innovation and digitalization within its energy system, particularly in the Arctic region. Russia is prioritizing exports and revenue.8

Further, Rosneft established the Vostok Oil project to focus on the northern territories, related infrastructure, and transportation via Russia’s Northern Sea Route. As part of the Vostok Oil project, Rosneft began constructing an Arctic oil terminal at the Bukhta Sever port in 2022.9

As of December 2022, Russia had 5.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil refining capacity from more than 25 refineries.10Rosneft, the largest refinery operator, owns more than 2.0 million b/d of crude oil refining capacity.

In 2022, Gazprom Neft upgraded its Omsk Refinery (which supplies petroleum products to Siberia, the Urals, and Kazakhstan) to produce internationally compliant jet fuel and low-sulfur marine fuel that meets more stringent emission standards.11 Upgrades to Forte Invest’s Orsk Refinery (which delivers petroleum products to neighboring Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan as well as to Turkey and Malta) will be completed in 2023, increasing its yield of light oil products to 98%.12

In 2021, 34% of Russia’s domestic petroleum and other liquid fuels production was consumed domestically.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) de-bottlenecking program is nearly complete. Beginning in 2023, the upgraded pipeline, which transports crude oil produced in Kazakhstan and Russia to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, will be able to transport nearly 1.5 million b/d of oil from Kazakhstan. Pipeline capacity will rise to 1.7 million b/d as it passes through Russia.13

Russia may delay the launch of new hydrocarbon gas liquid (HGL) facilities following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Sibur’s Amur Gas Chemical Complex (with a planned production capacity of 2.7 million tons per year), is a joint venture with China’s Sinopec, and is co-located with Gazprom’s Amur Gas Processing Plant in Svobodny and was originally scheduled to start production in 2024. The facility will produce polyethylene and polypropylene and consume ethane as well as smaller quantities of propane as feedstock. Irkutsk Oil’s Ust-Kut polymer plant (with a planned production capacity of 650 thousand tons per year), located in East Siberia, will produce ethylene and polyethylene and consume approximately 45,000 b/d of ethane feedstock, and was also scheduled to launch in 2024.14 Revised launch schedules for either facilities have not been published.

Companythousand barrels per day
Rosneft3,476
Gazprom1,634
Lukoil1,473
Surgutneftegas1,171
Tatneft557
Others2,217
Data source: Rystad Energy
Operatorthousand barrels per day
Rosneft2,189
Lukoil985
Gazprom831
Tatneft210
Others1,195
Data source: Oil and Gas Journal

Natural gas

Russia held the world’s largest natural gas reserves, at 1,688 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), as of January 1, 2023.15

Natural gas discoveries in Russia’s Arctic region, particularly in the Yamal Peninsula and Ob Bay, could facilitate Russia’s plans to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to approximately 4.5 Tcf–4.9 Tcf per year by 2024 and to about 8.3 Tcf–9.6 Tcf per year by 2035, according to industry publications.16,17,18,19

In 2021, Russia flared more than 883 Tcf of natural gas, accounting for the largest share of the 5.1 Tcf flared globally.20

In 2021, 71% of Russia’s natural gas was consumed domestically.

Russia continues to increase its LNG export capacity. The first train of Gazprom’s Baltic LNG at Ust-Luga port, a two-train LNG export facility with a total capacity of 624 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per year, is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2023. The second train will come on stream in 2024.21 Novatek’s Arctic LNG-2 project on the Gydan Peninsula, a three-train liquefaction export facility with a total capacity of 951 Bcf per year, is scheduled to export its first LNG cargo in 2023. Arctic LNG-2’s second and third trains will begin operation in 2024 and 2026, respectively.22 However, these dates were announced by operating companies prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and have not been revised since then.

Coal

Russia’s coal reserves were approximately 179 billion short tons at the end of 2021, making it the second-largest holder of recoverable coal reserves in the world after the United States.  

Russia is ranked the sixth-largest coal producer in the world behind China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Australia. The Kuznetsk Basin, located equidistant to the main Baltic and Black Sea ports in the west and the Far East ports on the Pacific, accounts for over half the coal produced in Russia.23 Other key basins include the long-mined Donetsk Basin, the Yakutia Basin, and the Pechora Basin, which is close to the north coast.

Bituminous coal, used for thermal generation, and metallurgical coal, an important input for iron and steel production, cumulatively accounted for nearly two-thirds of the 481 million short tons of coal produced in 2021.

In 2021, 51% of Russia’s coal production was consumed domestically.

Russia is investing in its coal infrastructure. In June 2020, Russia adopted a long-term program for developing its coal industry by 2035. With the 2035 Coal Program, Russia plans to expand the eastern ends of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian railways, removing a bottleneck for coal flows to its eastern seaports; create new coal extraction hubs; and implement high global standards on efficiencies and capacities for domestic coal producers.24,25

Electricity 

Russia’s installed electricity generation capacity increased to 283 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2021. While the country added 7 GW of renewable (hydro, solar, and wind) capacity last year, renewable capacity, as a share of total capacity, has remained at an average rate of 21% per year since 1992.

Russia’s electric power generation was 1,110 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2021. About 60% of Russia’s electric power generation came from fossil fuel-derived sources, and the remainder came mostly from nuclear and hydroelectric source. 

Russia is planning to expand the role of nuclear energy. Based on the most recent information available, three nuclear power reactors (Kursk II-1, Kursk II-2, and BREST-OD-300), with a total gross generation capacity of 2.8 GW, are under construction.26 In addition, Rosenergoatom, Russia’s sole utility company operating the country’s nuclear plants, anticipates building 26 additional nuclear reactors that would potentially provide approximately 24 GW of additional capacity over the next 15 years.27

Russia has the world’s first floating cogeneration nuclear power plant, the Academician Lomonosov. Located at the Artic port of Pevek, 600 miles from the Bering Strait, the Academician Lomonosov is based on technology used for nuclear icebreaker ships and consists of two 35 megawatts reactors that provide heat and power to the town.

Energy trade

PETROLEUM AND OTHER LIQUIDS

Four ports (Primorsk, Nakhodka, Novorossiysk, and Ust-Luga) account for a significant share of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports. Similarly, three ports (Ust Luga, Novorossiysk, and Primorsk) account for more than half of Russia’s refined petroleum product exports.

Russia exports crude oil and condensates to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline system, which was briefly interrupted in mid-November 2022.28Russia exports crude oil and condensates to China via the ESPO and the Kazakhstan-China (KC) pipelines. The KC pipeline is under a swap arrangement between Russia and Kazakhstan. A small portion of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, which primarily carries Kazakh crude oil, is also used to export crude oil and condensates. 

Between January and October 2022, Russia’s seaborne and piped exports of crude oil and condensate totaled about 5 million barrels per day (b/d). China received the largest share, at 36%, of Russia’s total crude oil and condensate exports. During the first 10 months of 2022, seaborne deliveries of refined petroleum products were 2.5 million b/d, and EU markets received 52% of these deliveries. Diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha, cumulatively, accounted for 86% of total seaborne refined petroleum products exports. Data are limited for other methods of transportation.29

NATURAL GAS

Six major pipelines connect Russia’s natural gas infrastructure to European markets, and two pipelines transport Russia’s natural gas to Asian markets. Russia’s western pipelines have also been affected by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. For example, the German government suspended certification of the Nord Stream 2 following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.30 In May 2022, Ukraine suspended operations at the Sokhranivka measuring station and the Novopskov compressor station, which are part of the Soyuz and Brotherhood pipeline system, because of interference by Russian forces.31 In early-September 2022, Nord Stream was shut down following explosions that damaged the pipeline.32 Russia plans to increase deliveries of natural gas to China via Mongolia with the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would expand its export options beyond Europe.

Between January and October 2022, Russia delivered 1.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas via various pipelines to Europe, a large decrease compared with the 2.9 Tcf delivered during the same period in 2021. However, Russia increased natural gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline between January and October 2022.33 During the first 10 months of 2022, Russia also exported 2.1 Bcf of liquefied natural gas (LNG).34 Japan, China, and France were the top three destinations for Russia’s LNG exports. Data are limited for other methods of transportation.

In 2021, Russia exported 8.9 Tcf of liquefied and piped natural gas. Nearly 85% of Russia’s exported natural gas arrived at its destination country via pipeline, and the rest was shipped as LNG. The EU received more than 60% of Russia’s natural gas exports. Within the EU, Germany was the largest importer of Russia’s natural gas exports, receiving 1.7 Tcf.

COAL

Historically, Russia’s coal exports accounted for most of the European coal import market because of Russia’s proximity to Europe. Now, they compete with Indonesia to supply coal to the Asian and Far Eastern markets. Russia is increasing coal sales in new markets by offering price discounts. 

Following the EU ban on importing coal from Russia, Russia began marketing its coal to buyers in Asia. Between January and October 2022, Russia’s seaborne coal exports were nearly 200 million short tons (MMst), a slight decrease compared with the 218 MMst during the same period in 2021.34, 35 Despite rising rail costs and railway bottlenecks domestically, Russia continued to deliver both thermal and metallurgical coal to China and India, the primary benefactors of Russia’s price discounts. Together, seaborne coal exports to China and India, which previously accounted for 27% of Russia’s total seaborne coal exports in 2021, grew to over 40% from January through October 2022. Data are limited for other methods of transportation.

In 2021, Russia exported 262 million short tons (MMst), or more than half of the coal the country produced. Thermal coal exports, often used for power generation, accounted for 86% of Russia’s coal exports. The EU received 24% of all Russia’s thermal coal exports and 11% of all Russia’s metallurgical coal exports.

thousand barrels per day
Port terminalCrude oil and condensate exports
Primorsk826
Nakhodka795
Novorossiysk640
Ust-Luga554
Murmansk314
SokolSakhalin99
Varandey101
Others114
Data source: Kpler 
Note: Novorossiysk includes CPC loadings where the seller is Lukoil, excludes all other CPC loadings. Murmansk includes volumes that are originally loaded in Arctic ports, and transshipped through Murmansk, in order to optimize shipping.
thousand barrels per day
Port terminalRefined petroleum product exports
Ust Luga701
Novorossiysk372
Primorsk350
Tuapse251
Vysotsk239
St Petersburg192
Taman139
Others362
Data source: Kpler
PiplineAnnual capacity (Tcf)Total length (miles)Supply regionsMarkets
Western pipelines
Yamal-Europe1.22,552West Siberian fields including Urengoy areaPoland, Germany, and northern Europe via Belarus
Blue Stream0.6754West Siberian fields including Urengoy areaTurkey via the Black Sea
Nord Stream1.9761West Siberian fields including Urengoy areaGermany and northern Europe via the Baltic Sea
Nord Stream 21.9761West Siberian fields including Urengoy areaGermany and northern Europe via the Baltic Sea
Soyuz and Brotherhood (Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod)1.12,800West Siberian fields including Urengoy area, Russian Urals fields, and Central AsiaWestern Russia and Europe via Ukraine
TurkStream1.1580West Siberian fields including Urengoy areaTurkey and Southeast Europe via the Black Sea
Eastern pipelines
Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Valadivostok0.21,118Sakhalin fields (offshore northern Sakhalin)Eastern Russia with potential exports to Asia Vladivostok LNG or new pipelines
Power of SiberiaMainline: 2.2
China spur: – 1.3
5,040East Siberian fields including Chayadinskoye in Yakutia region and Kovytka in Irkutsk regionNortheast China with a connection to the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline
Data source: Enerdata, Reuters, British Petroleum, Gazprom, Sakhalin Energy, TurkStream, World Gas Intelligence, Nefte Compass, and Argus FSU

Source: This article was published by EIA

Endnotes

  1. Congressional Research Service, “Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine:  Overview of U.S. Sanctions and Other Responses,” publish October 21, 2022 
  2. Congressional Research Service, “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: European Union Responses and Implications for U.S.-EU Relations,”  published July 28, 2022
  3. Covington, “U.S., EU, and UK Impose Price Cap Policies for Maritime Transport of Russian-Origin Crude Oil,” published December 2, 2022.
  4. European Council, “G7 Leaders’ Communiqué – Executive summary,” June 28, 2022.
  5. European Commission, “G7 agrees oil price cap: reducing Russia’s revenues, while keeping global energy markets stable,” published December 3, 2022.
  6. The White House, “G7 Leaders’ Statement,” published 12, 2022. 
  7. Oil & Gas Journal, “Worldwide look at reserves and production,” accessed December 14, 2022.
  8. Government of the Russian Federation, “Mikhail Mishustin approves Energy Strategy to 2035,” published June 10, 2020. Sergey Sukhankin. “Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035: A Breakthrough or Another Impasse?” Eurasia Daily MonitorVol. 17, Issue 78, The Jamestown Foundation, published June 2, 2020.
  9. Warsaw Institute, “Russia’s Rosneft Starts Construction Of Vostok Oil,” published July 31, 2022.
  10. Oil & Gas Journal,  “Worldwide Refining Survey ,” accessed December 14, 2022.
  11. Gazprom Neft, “The Omsk oil refinery,” accessed November 23, 2022. Oil & Gas Journal, “Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery producing internationally compliant jet fuel,” published April 12, 2021.  Oil & Gas Journal, “Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery producing IMO 2020-compliant fuels,” published February 19, 2020. 
  12. Forte Invest, “Orsk Oil Refinery:  Upgrading results,” accessed November 21, 2022.
  13. Energy Intelligence, “Clouds Gather over CPC Consortium,” published November 22, 2022. 
  14. Irkutsk Oil Company, “Gas Project,” accessed November 21, 2022. 
  15. Oil & Gas Journal, “Worldwide look at reserves and production,” published December 5, 2022. 
  16. Forum: Russian Energy Week,” Verbatim report on the plenary session of the International Forum “Russian Energy Week,” Office of the President of Russia, October 2, 2019.
  17. Russian LNG: Becoming a Global Force,” Oxford Institute of Energy Studies Paper NG 154, November 2019.
  18. Tatiana Mitrova and Vitaly Yerkmakov. “Russia’s Energy Strategy-2035: Struggling to Remain Relevant,” French Institute of International Relations, November 2019.
  19. James Henderson, Vitaly Yermakov. Atle Staalesen. “In push for global lead in LNG, Moscow takes aim on Arctic tundra,” The Barents Observer, March 25, 2021. 
  20. World Bank, Global Gas Flaring Data, accessed December 12, 2022.
  21. NSEnergy, Baltic LNG Project, accessed November 22, 2022. 
  22. Novatek, “Project Arctic LNG 2,” accessed November 22, 2022.
  23. Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company, “Over a half of coal produced in Russia,” accessed November 25, 2022.
  24. Sergey Sukhankin. “Coal Strategy 2035: Is Russia Preparing for the Last War?” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 17, Issue 109, The Jamestown Foundation, published July 27, 2022.
  25. Ellie Martus and Stephen Fortescue.  “Russian coal in a changing climate: risks and opportunities for industry and government,” Climatic Change, Vol. 173, Issue 26, pages 7-8, published August 19, 2002.
  26. World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Power in Russia, accessed November 28, 2022.
  27. International Atomic Energy Agency, Country Statistics: Russia, accessed November 28, 2022. World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Power in Russia, accessed November 28, 2022.
  28. Reuters, “Russia’s Transneft says Druzhba pipeline oil flows resume after suspension – TASS,” accessed November 23, 2022.
  29. Kpler and IEA, Oil Market Report, published November 15, 2022.
  30. Congressional Research Service, “Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline to Germany Halted,” published March 10, 2022.
  31. Offshore Technology, “Ukraine to cease Russian gas transit from Sokhranivka entry point to Europe,” published May 11, 2022.
  32. NPR, “Seismologists suspect explosions damaged undersea pipelines that carry Russian gas,” published September 27, 2022. 
  33. Bloomberg, accessed on December 15, 2022.
  34. Kpler, accessed on December 15, 2022.
  35. Global Trade Tracker, accessed December 23, 2022.
  36. UN Comtrade, accessed January 4, 2023.

EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

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