Trump: Expectations, Reality, And Everything In-Between – OpEd
US President Donald Trump has been super-active with all the hyperbole that was expected. More executive orders have been issued than ever before in the first month of his term, and his cabinet was pushed through the Senate. Trump has made more public appearances and press conferences, than occurred through the entire Biden administration.
With 70 days into Trump’s term, we have had a good enough glimpse to see what America and the rest of the world has install, over the next three years and nine months. Some see havoc, confusion, chaos, and amateurism, while others see Trump fulfilling his promises. The Trump administration faces great resistance from parts of the Democratic infiltrated institutions, judiciary, and even anarchists attacking Telsa dealerships and cars, in protests against Elon Musk. At the same time, Trump’s foreign policy efforts, through trusted emissaries are finding diplomacy much more difficult than they had anticipated.
The world is still guessing about what the Trump show will bring.
Keeping promises
Domestically, the Trump administration has pulled back on ‘woke” to the resistance of some state Democratic leaders. Within hours of Trump’s inauguration, the flow of illegal migrants across the southern border with Mexico was brought down to a trickle. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has moved into cities removing and deporting many labelled as ‘illegal’ migrants, while the legacy media has been producing stories of unjust separation of families, on some of the deportees to gain public sympathy against deportations.
Both the Epstein and JFK files have been released to the public. However, this has led to very few conclusions, other than US intelligence agencies played major roles. The file releases have put into question, the ability of Attorney General Pam Bondi to control the Department of Justice, as rogue elements were said to withhold some information. Former Biden officials, including former President Biden himself have been stripped of their security clearances.
Trump through executive order is enabling to flow of oil and gas once again to assist in bringing down gas prices across the nation.
Elon Musk and DOGE
By far the brightest shinning light in the Trump show have been the discoveries made by the Elon Musk led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The DOGE operation has exposed many excesses by former administrations, which have made great talking points. The Democrats have opposed Elon Musk, branding him as illegitimate, and claiming many of the fund cuts have cost lives and caused human suffering in far away countries.
However, DOGE is playing a key role in the early part of the Trump administration. DOGE is attacking the very core of the Democrat empire. DOGE has two objectives, cutting down on government wasteful spending, and seeking to stop funding towards Democrat leaning institutions.
This needed to be undertaken very quickly in Trump’s term to cut out Democrat sources of funds before the 2026 mid-term elections. Trump is only 18 months away from these elections and needs to pull a ‘rabbit out of the hat’, in order to hold and build upon the slender Republican majority in the Congress.
Its long been evident that Elon Musk will not remain at Trump’s side over the next 3 years. Musk needs to return to his business empire sooner than later. This could potentially have a major effect upon the Trump presidency.
The tariff saga
Many within the financial world are questioning Trump’s use of tariffs. Criticism hinges upon the argument that in reality, tariffs are a tax upon Americans, who will pay for the cost of any tariffs imposed, and the inflation tariffs will bring.
Trump has envisaged a grand plan that tariffs would replace income tax, becoming the prime source of government revenue. This is more folly than fact.
Trump sees tariffs as a tool to bargain with and is only too quick to claim the kudus of his diplomatic wins. Trumps claims four trillion Dollars are coming in FDI, as companies reinvest in local manufacturing.
There is a great risk that imposing tariffs on other nations will lead to trade wars. Trump’s rationale is that tariffs will attract offshore manufacturing back to the United States and create much needed jobs in the economy. Thus, new jobs (or ones lost 45 years ago) would act as a primer to rebuild cities to their former glories.
This is at the core of ‘Make America Great Again’ or MAGA, the heart of Trump’s support base. Tariffs are a risky gambit to play with.
Foreign policy is becoming a quagmire
Trump doesn’t acknowledge (at least publicly) that the US cannot hold onto its position of dominance and global primacy the nation once held. That period is long gone. Certainly, Trump is aware that some form of formal reset is required in a Yalta 2.0 like meeting, where an understanding of respective superpowers understand and agree upon their own sphere of influence.
Trump certainly see such an opportunity as legacy building.
The US must now share primacy with China and to a lesser extent Russia. The US cannot engage China without first coming to an accommodation with Russia, which Europe is trying to prevent.
The best path ahead for the United States is an acceptance of such realities, where Trump commits the United States to this vision of a competitive and at the same time, cooperative multi-polar world.
As of now, there is little sign of Trump accepting this reality. With two months in, Trump has not yet addressed China.
In the immediate term, the Trump administration is becoming entangled in two wars it inherited, where spoilers are making anything difficult to settle. This is taking Trump well outside his ‘short-term thinking’ comfort zone. Trump is not a strategic thinker, he is a tactician.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, with European support (or European prodding) has been pushing back on any type of solution to the war. Zelensky is standing in the way of Russia and the United States coming to any sort of wide agreement, much larger than the Ukraine war, and Trump’s ability to reach out to China after an understanding has been found with Russia.
The Gaza issue is putting pressure on the Trump administration. The situation is pinning Trump to the ‘Jewish lobby’, making him look subservient, propping up the Netanyahu regime. The Trump administration is turning a blind eye to continued genocide in Gaza and the West Bank, and itself is engaged in the bombing of Yemen. There are no strategic benefits here for the United States, just Trump losing goodwill.
The United States is finding that even Iran doesn’t want to hold direct talks, making the US look weak. Rhetoric towards Canada, Greenland, and Panama seems irrational.
The current foreign policy trauma is beginning to bog down the Trump administration into a quagmire, where the administration is starting to find out just how difficult diplomacy really is. There are no quick fixes, no Ukraine cease fire, where Trump is being played out by multiple sides. These issues are starting to create an albatross around the neck of the White House, with perceptions of trust and competence being quickly eroded.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have walked into hostile institutions, where senior figures in those departments have no intention of assisting them. Tulsi Gabbard is finding the same with the US intelligence community. These bureaucracies are not going to entertain Trump’s appointees and aim to render them helpless and ineffective through non-cooperation and even sabotage.
It already looks like the State Department is being led by two different people, with United States Special Envoy to the Middle East, now involved in Russian negotiations as well.
Its unlikely Trump’s cabinet will purposely betray him in this second administration. However, how competent they will be in hostile environments is the question. Trump needs to totally shift current US global strategy, but it looks like he will get bogged down just like previous presidents have in overseas wars.
Threats and weaknesses of the Trump administration
The major weakness of the Trump administration is the appearance of the ‘Jewish lobby’ calling the shots on US foreign policy. This appears to be heavily influencing actions taken by the Pentagon in the Middle East.
Trump is showing signs that he will activity pursue those who attacked him with lawfare over the last couple of years. If vengeance gets the better of Trump, then this administration on this front may be no better than the last administration. Unlike Trump’s first term, there are signs he wants to seek retribution on those who crossed him.
The legacy media since Trump has re-entered the White House is attacking on all fronts. Even some conservative independent journalists are digging up the past of some cabinet members. The recent Signal conversation among Trumps team became and issue, which nearly cost the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz his job.
What is sure is that Trump’s second term will be once again full of Trump’s hyperbole, just like his first term. This has some risk in that it could damage him and undermine the job of his cabinet members. This hyperbole could actually hinder the achievement of desired outcomes. Trump’s national defence/security team look like they haven’t got their act together and appear very amateurish on the world stage.
It’s the economy that will make or break Trump. His MAGA support base are expecting quick results and don’t give a damm about Gaza and Ukraine. If they become disappointed, the Republicans may suffer in the mid-term elections. We are yet to see any resemblance of a cohesive economic policy.
Its all still too early to tell. Rhetoric is not policy. We are really yet to see Trump’s true economic and foreign policies. The Trump administration is getting the support of the bureaucracy. The bureaucracy is the White House’s domestic enemy.
