Fragility In The Chinese System – Analysis
Despite astounding economic success, Chinese system is riddled with corruption despite the Chinese president Xi Jinping has used the whips frequently but deterrence has not helped to correct the system. The latest in this narrative is that the defence minister of the country Dong Jun is reportedly being investigated for corruption. Dong is the third consecutive incumbent or former defence chief to be probed over alleged corruption.
The alleged corruption-related scandal is a development that could undermine the efforts to maintain military-to-military communications between the US and China just months before US President-elect Donald Trump take office. The report in the Financial Times on the alleged corruption in a wide-ranging scandal that has hit the top echelons of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has embarrassed the administration of Xi Jinping.
Dong has been defence minister since December 2023, following the firing of his predecessor, Li Shangfu, over alleged corruption after just seven months in the position. Both Dong and Li were appointed by Xi Jinping. Li himself had replaced Wei Fenghe, who was also probed for graft after retiring. Subsequent reports said that some senior military official, not the defence minister, was suspended and was under investigation for serious violation of discipline. It was further clarified that the suspended officer Admiral Miao Hua served on the ruling central military commission, China’s highest level military command body and was stationed in the coastal province of Fujian when President Xi Jinping worked there as a local official.
China’s military has undergone a sweeping anti-graft purge since 2023 with at least nine PLA generals removed from national legislative body. In Dong’s case, a Defence spokesman clarified that the news of Dong being sidelined in an investigation were “sheer fabrication” spread by rumour mongers with evil motivations. Even Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning was quoted as saying it was just “chasing shadows”. However, the mystery continues.
Be that as it may be, the post of defence minister is largely symbolic under Chinese system. Dong does not oversee combat forces. The position is widely seen as an important face representing Beijing’s diplomatic and military policy to the outside world. Irrespective of the veracity of Dong’s case, he refused to meet US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of a recent meeting of Asian defence chiefs in Laos. The Defence Ministry in Beijing cited concerns over US weapons sales to democratic Taiwan, which Taiwan claims as a renegade province. Xi Jinping has set a 2027 deadline to invade Taiwan to integrate the democratic island into the mainland. Given the fissures in the defence establishment at home, that aspiration must remain a will-o-the-wisp for now.
Earlier, Austin had met with Dong in May 2023 during the Shangri-La Dialogue forum in Singapore. Understandably, Austin described the decision not to meet Dong again in Laos as “unfortunate”. Beijing however stuck to its position on the arms sales issue, which Washington blamed Beijing to be “solely responsible”.
Interestingly, the news of the graft probe on Dong came less than two weeks after Xi met US President Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Peru, where both leaders welcomed the resumption of the military-to-military communications and reaffirmed to keep the channels open.
Beijing is understandably worried that President-elect Trump has already nominated a number of China hawks for key Cabinet posts. In order to prevent a deterioration of bilateral tie with the US, Xi Jinping has gone overboard by announcing that he is ready to work with the Trump administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences.
Earlier, corruption issues surfaced within the Chinese military’s Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s land-based missile and nuclear arsenals, and the powerful Central Military Commission’s (CMC’s) Equipment Development Department (EDD), which develops and acquires key military technology. Because of the sensitivity of the defence issues and with a view to keep tight control of the system, Xi Jinping has removed in the past two years a number of key figures in the Rocket Force and linked to the EDD and installed more loyal officials and quash corruption inside the service and department.
Dong, who was an admiral in the country’s navy, was considered an outsider and unlikely to be tainted by the scandals that had plagued the Rocket Force and EDD. But there were some hidden untruths. During a major Communist Party meeting earlier in 2024, Dong was not promoted to the CMC, the six-member body that oversees China’s military, prompting observers to question his ability to hold onto the post. The country’s defense chief has traditionally been a member of both the CMC, which is headed by Xi, and the State Council, China’s Cabinet-level executive body. Dong was not a member of the State Council, either.
Xi Jinping has been ruthless in stemming corruption and punishing those who found guilty or suspected to be guilty. In 2022, Xi fired Foreign Minister Qin Gang, whom he had appointed to the position, following reports of an extramarital affair with a Chinese woman in the US. Yet corruption continues. This demonstrates the fragility in the authoritarian system with command control. Xi may be slipping grip on the reins of administration.
While the reported probe against Dong is being interpreted as another spectacular failure of Beijing’s internal vetting processes, the news nevertheless embarrasses Xi Jinping. Xi is unlikely to loosen his grip and more head could roll if found out. The big question is, can Xi Jinping take control of the rein and deal with China’s future aspirations amid an unpredictable impending Trump administration?
