The Case For An IndoMed Quad: India, Italy, UAE, And US Cooperation – Analysis
By Published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute
By Emanuele Rossi
(FPRI) — The Indo-Mediterranean region faces escalating instability, from Houthi missile strikes disrupting maritime routes vital to piracy and regional conflicts in the Horn of Africa. A strategic IndoMed Quad—comprising the United States, United Arab Emirates, India, and Italy—offers a pragmatic framework to address these challenges. The convergence of security, economic, and geopolitical interests among these four nations and their strengthening bilateral relations positions them to act together effectively. With shared commitments to maritime security, infrastructure development, and counterterrorism efforts, this alignment could provide a sustainable solution for regional stability and promote long-term integration across the Indo-Mediterranean corridor.
Since the eruption of violence in Gaza following Hamas’s October 7 attack, the geopolitical significance of the “Indo-Mediterranean”—a term gaining currency in Italian strategic circles—has come into sharp focus. Amid regional instability and security threats, the evolving relationships between the United States, the United Arab Emirates, India, and Italy suggest the formation of a new cooperative alliance: an “IndoMed Quad.” This integrated cooperation could address the region’s security and developmental challenges, offering a pragmatic solution to stabilize one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.
Strengthening Bilateral Ties as the Foundation of the IndoMed Quad
Bilateral relations among the prospective IndoMed Quad members have strengthened considerably in recent years, providing a solid foundation for this new strategic alliance. The US-UAE relationship has deepened, with the United Arab Emirates now designated a “major defense partner.” This partnership encompasses joint security initiatives similar to those within the original Quad (United States, India, Japan, and Australia), reflecting Washington’s broader latticework approach to regional security alliances.
The United Arab Emirates and India have also bolstered their defense cooperation, holding joint military exercises and enhancing maritime security in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. The IndoMed Quad would be a natural extension of this cooperation, building on existing frameworks like the Twelfth Joint Defense Cooperation Committee and India’s active engagement in the US-India Critical and Emerging Technology initiative.
Italy’s strong presence in the region, with naval leadership in operations such as EuNavForMed Atalanta, Aspedes, and Combined Task Force 153, positions it as a natural partner in this framework. Italy’s defense industry, including joint ventures like the Fincantieri partnership in the United Arab Emirates, further strengthens its role in the IndoMed Quad. Italy’s expertise, demonstrated by its carrier strike group, Nave Cavour, currently active in the Indo-Pacific, complements its broader diplomatic and defense contributions.
The Italian Navy has emerged as the foremost European naval force regarding operational capabilities and interoperability with non-NATO assets. Notably, apart from the United States, it is the first and only NATO force to achieve Initial Operational Capability with the F-35 from a naval platform. This milestone was reached during the mission of the Italian aircraft carrier Nave Cavour and its carrier strike group in the Indo-Pacific. This achievement is particularly compelling for countries like India and Japan, seeking to augment their air-sea military capabilities. Consequently, the Italian Navy positions itself as a critical operative force within the Indo-Mediterranean framework and a maritime power with future oceanic projections.
A Region at the Crossroads of Global Security
The instability stemming from Houthi missile strikes in Yemen illustrates how vulnerable the Indo-Mediterranean region is to geopolitical disruptions. Iran-backed Houthi militias have repeatedly targeted commercial vessels traveling through the Suez Canal, a vital artery connecting Europe and Asia. These attacks have disrupted global supply chains, forcing some shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa—an option that increases both costs and delivery times. This geopolitical flashpoint is exacerbated by reports that Russia may supply the Houthis with hypersonic Yakhont missiles, potentially leveraging the Yemeni conflict to further its strategic interests in Ukraine and beyond. These interconnected crises highlight how global security risks converge in the Indo-Mediterranean, where regional instability directly impacts the global economy.
This region exemplifies the close interdependence between political stability and geoeconomic conditions. Moreover, the prospect of Russia supplying advanced weaponry to the Houthis adds additional complexity, reflecting Moscow’s broader geopolitical strategy to challenge Western interests.
Rising Piracy and Broader Regional Instability
In addition to Houthi aggression, piracy resurfaced in the western Indian Ocean, particularly near Somalia, the Comoros, and Seychelles. In October, Admiral Aurelio De Carolis, Commander-in-Chief of the Italian Fleet, told reporters in Vasco, Goa, that the threat posed by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group “in some way, may have contributed to a resurgence of piracy in the area.”
These pirate attacks, also linked to groups like al-Shabaab, threaten maritime routes essential for transporting oil and gas to Asia. As key regional actors, the United Arab Emirates and India have significant stakes in securing these lanes, which are vital for global energy supplies.
India, for instance, has ambitions to transform its ports into strategic hubs for Southeast Asia’s energy security, leveraging its multimodal connections with the United Arab Emirates. However, the resurgence of piracy and the possibility of pirates hijacking oil tankers pose a severe risk to these ambitions. Houthi militias, in concert with al-Shabaab, could exacerbate this threat as terrorism and piracy become increasingly intertwined in the Indo-Mediterranean. Furthermore, the broader instability in the Horn of Africa, exemplified by Sudan’s humanitarian crisis and rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, further complicates the security environment.
Russia and China’s Strategic Ambiguity
Russia and China’s presence in the Indo-Mediterranean region is marked by strategic ambiguity, adding complexity to regional stability efforts. On the one hand, Russia may have provided support to the Houthis in Yemen, allegedly using satellite intelligence relayed through Iranian proxies to identify and target merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea. Despite attempts by cargo ships to obscure their AIS signals, Russian satellites reportedly enabled the Houthis to track commercial routes and plan targeted attacks. On the other hand, while not offering direct military support to the Houthis, China has adopted a similarly ambiguous stance. It refrains from participating in US-led maritime security operations, opting for a low-profile approach that allows it to economically benefit from regional stability without actively contributing. In the meantime, it has allegedly paid no heed to the group’s efforts to acquire arms-related technology from Chinese sources.
This strategic ambiguity between Russia and China mirrors the varying approaches of the IndoMed Quad members. Russia and China are global systemic rivals for the United States, met with a resolute counter stance. While aligned toward rivalry, Italy takes a less aggressive approach, while India maintains a nuanced position—competing with China but still relying on Russia for military and energy supplies. The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, sustains primarily commercial relations with both countries, with Russia playing a pivotal role within the OPEC+ framework.
However, suppose Russia and China were indeed to provide substantial assistance to the Houthis in destabilizing Indo-Mediterranean maritime security. In that case, all four IndoMed Quad actors would likely converge in recognizing this shared threat, leading to a more unified response.
Strategic Infrastructure and Connectivity Projects
Against this backdrop, infrastructure and connectivity projects initiated by the potential IndoMed Quad nations represent a pathway toward stability and development. The UAE’s “One port, one node” initiative, which aims to establish a network of ports and bases stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, aligns with India’s “Africa Strategy,” which seeks to enhance connectivity and infrastructure in East Africa. Simultaneously, the United States invests heavily in the Lobito Corridor, a transcontinental infrastructure project linking the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, designed to foster development while countering Chinese influence in Africa.
Italy, for its part, has launched the Mattei Plan, a broad strategy for development in Africa focused on infrastructure and energy projects. These initiatives demonstrate how the IndoMed Quad nations are working to strengthen regional connectivity, counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and stabilize critical economic corridors.
IMEC: The Cornerstone of Shared Interests
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi represents the most apparent manifestation of these shared interests. IMEC, which aims to establish a more resilient trade route between Europe, the Middle East, and India, offers an alternative to routes vulnerable to geopolitical disruption, such as those threatened by Houthi missile strikes or the accidental blockages seen in the Suez Canal (as occurred with the Ever Given in 2021). This initiative also incorporates digital and energy connectivity, including green hydrogen infrastructure, further underscoring the corridor’s strategic importance.
Moreover, IMEC could complement the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation on the other side of the Indian subcontinent, forming a broader geostrategic network linking Europe and Southeast Asia. For the IndoMed Quad members, this “tentacular” system would integrate nearly half of the globe’s circumference, positioning India as a crucial hub between East and West while boosting the United Arab Emirates and Italy’s strategic projections into Southeast Asia. The United States, meanwhile, would act as the global guarantor of this resilient and reliable system of interregional relations.
Integrated Security Response
At the heart of the IndoMed Quad must be a unified, integrated security response designed to address the region’s complex and interconnected threats. The Indo-Mediterranean corridor, spanning from the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, is rife with security challenges, including piracy, terrorism, and geopolitical tensions. To confront these effectively, the IndoMed Quad must operate as a collective defense framework, combining its four members’ military and intelligence capacities.
- Multifaceted Security Threats: The IndoMed Quad nations face diverse security challenges, from Houthi missile strikes threatening commercial vessels in the Red Sea to piracy along key energy routes near Somalia. These asymmetric threats cannot be tackled by individual nations alone. The Quad could offer a comprehensive solution by pooling resources and implementing multilateral military strategies. Integrating naval assets, defense coordination, and rapid-response forces across member nations would provide the necessary infrastructure to counter these threats swiftly.
- Defense Interoperability: Given that the United States, India, United Arab Emirates, and Italy already engage in bilateral and multilateral defense collaborations, enhancing interoperability is critical. Joint naval exercises, coordinated military patrols, and shared defense technologies are some avenues through which the IndoMed Quad could operationalize its security commitments. For instance, Italy’s involvement in EU-led naval missions in the Mediterranean and Gulf of Aden could be synchronized with US and Indian naval capacities to secure maritime chokepoints, ensuring a unified defense posture.
- Intelligence Sharing and Real-Time Coordination: A vital pillar of the IndoMed Quad’s security architecture must be intelligence sharing. By establishing a real-time data and intelligence-sharing framework, the Quad would ensure that all members are equally equipped to preempt and respond to threats. This coordination is crucial for counterterrorism operations targeting groups like al-Shabaab, as well as for monitoring state-sponsored disruptions from actors such as Iran and Russia. Real-time intelligence could help identify risks before they escalate, strengthening the Quad’s capacity to protect critical maritime corridors.
- Strategic Maritime Focus: The IndoMed Quad’s combined efforts must emphasize maritime security, safeguarding one of the world’s most vital trade corridors. Joint naval patrols, establishing maritime security frameworks, and increasing presence in Indo-Mediterranean waters would ensure that commercial shipping remains safe from piracy, missile strikes, and other disruptions. With India and the United Arab Emirates positioned as strategic hubs and the United States and Italy contributing significant naval power, the Quad could ensure long-term stability across these crucial sea lanes.
By integrating their military, intelligence, and defense capacities, the IndoMed Quad would counter existing threats and serve as a long-term stabilizing force in the region. This cooperation would represent a unified approach to security that complements the Quad’s economic and developmental goals, ensuring that the Indo-Mediterranean remains secure and open to global commerce.
Why not for a Quint with Egypt?
By transforming the IndoMed Quad into a flexible, adaptive “Quint,” the inclusion of Egypt would add a pivotal geostrategic layer to this framework and would enhance resilience and stability across critical corridors, creating a unified system capable of addressing the complex security and developmental challenges of the region. At the nexus of the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, Egypt is a middle-space country akin to Rome and a bridge across crucial trade and security corridors linking Europe, Asia, and Africa. Beyond the United States, the other members of this potential “Quint” would be middle powers, each with specific regional influence but with shared interests in countering asymmetric threats like piracy, terrorism, and broader security challenges. Cairo’s ambitions for regional leadership demonstrated through its efforts to diversify partnerships and address vulnerabilities in energy and food security (with India supplying wheat to Egypt), align closely with the IndoMed Quad’s goals.
Egypt maintains robust bilateral relationships with each IndoMed Quad member, further supporting its potential integration into this coalition. Italy and Egypt share a longstanding cooperation in areas such as defense, energy, and migration management, which places Italy in a favorable position to advocate Egypt’s inclusion. The United Arab Emirates and Egypt, meanwhile, enjoy a strategic partnership rooted in economic investment and security cooperation, especially within the Red Sea region. Similarly, Egypt and India have strengthened ties through joint infrastructure projects and shared commitments to maritime security. The United States, as Egypt’s long-standing defense partner, provides substantial military aid and collaborates on security initiatives that reinforce stability across the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, as well as with a Joint Economic Commission.
A Vision for Stability and Long-term Cooperation
The IndoMed Quad emerges as a logical and pragmatic solution to the region’s security challenges. By coordinating efforts, the United States, Italy, the United Arab Emirates, and India can effectively address piracy, terrorism, and geopolitical instability while promoting regional development and integration. In doing so, the IndoMed Quad would counter the influence of revisionist powers like Russia, China, and Iran and serve as a cornerstone of a stable Indo-Mediterranean order.
The IndoMed Quad, alongside alliances such as the original Quad, AUKUS, and the Camp David Principles, would represent a critical component of the US strategy to ensure a secure and prosperous future for the region, reinforcing the global rules-based order.
Ultimately, the IndoMed Quad could serve as an initial model of a flexible mini/lateral system, its objectives, strategic operations, and frameworks to the constantly evolving geopolitical landscape. In doing so, it should be open to a “plus” format, incorporating, for instance, countries like Egypt as aforementioned, or Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states in matters concerning the Red Sea and even potentially extending to African nations or states in the Horn of Africa. This adaptive and inclusive approach would underscore the IndoMed Quad’s role as a practical and functional geopolitical framework capable of fluidly adjusting to emerging regional needs and specific circumstances.
- About the author: Emanuele Rossi is an independent expert in geopolitics, security, and geoeconomics, focusing on the Indo-Pacific and Indo-Mediterranean. He collaborates with prominent think tanks and international media outlets.
- Source: This article was published by FPRI
