West Philippine Sea Flashpoint, Minilateralism And Trump 2.0: Geopolitical Enmesh In Meta-Narratives Of US, China, Japan, And ASEAN – Analysis

In March 27, 2024, China Coast Guard ship 4103 suffered holes in its hull above waterline after its collision with the Philippine Coast Guard’s (PCG) Japanese-made Parola-class 44-meter long, 320 ton multirole response cutter BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409). This was followed by a series of coercive acts by China against Filipino fishermen and a serious threat to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Philippines – an overt portrayal of the deteriorating diplomatic and political relationship between the two countries.

To recall, China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels made an aggressive interference during the humanitarian Rotation and Reprovisioning (RoRe) mission to BRP Sierra Madre (LS57) at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal. On June 17, 2024 (Monday) at 5:59 AM, CCG and CMM vessels used dangerous maneuvers, including ramming and towing against supply boats of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). These coercive and aggressive actions during the RoRe mission, an example of which is where a CCG personnel was caught on camera while threatening to injure an AFP soldier with pickaxe, resulted in severe damage to AFP vessels, including their communication and navigation equipment.

An addition to this was when Chinese maritime forces injured eight Philippine Navy (PN) soldiers, one of whom suffered a serious injury, and seized their guns in a violent encounter. The seriously injured PN fighter, who formed part of the elite  Naval Special Operations Group (NAVSOG), reportedly lost one of his fingers when the forward portion of the CCG rigid hull inflatable boat (RHIB) went on top of the Filipino watercraft . Considering the weight and speed of the CCG RHIB when it collided with the Filipino watercraft, the force of the impact caused the troops to lose their balance and mobility. Worth noting is the fact that the assaults by the CCG against Philippine vessels were committed by either water cannon and/or ramming the watercraft. Even extending to the point whereby it was alleged that in addition to the use of water cannons, there were suspected militia vessels accompanying  the CCG that used a long-range acoustic device that could impair hearing and cause “severe temporary discomfort and incapacitation.” Another instance to remember prior to the June 17 West Philippine Sea (WPS) incident was threatening maneuvers and obstruction when four (4) CCG ships and six (6) Chinese maritime militia boats fired water cannons at PCG vessel BRP Bagacay and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel BRP Bankaw in Bajo de Masinloc during a resupply mission and maritime patrol operation.

A string of recent stand-offs at Sabina Shoal have sparked calls for the Philippines to urgently rethink its South China Sea strategy – though opinions are divided over its best course of action. When Manila deployed the BRP Teresa Magbanua to Sabina Shoal more than four months ago, it was claimed that such were innocent movement on the part of the Philippines in securing maritime security to which China contest otherwise. Sabina Shoal or known to the Philippines as Escoda Shoal is located some 146km west of the Palawan Island and lies within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines and around 1,200km from the nearest major Chinese land mass, Hainan.

Highlighting the event which transpired last August 11, two (2) Chinese Air Force aircraft dropped flares in the path of a Philippine Air Force plane while the latter was on a routine patrol over the Bajo de Masinloc, which is within the Philippines’ EEZ, putting the lives of the Filipino soldiers at risk. In terms of capacity and capability of China, on August 14, the Philippine Navy (PN) stated that the number of Chinese military vessels in the WPS had nearly tripled compared to a count conducted earlier that month. Both instances only prove China’s overarching expansionist ambitions toward the WPS remains undeterred in all fronts.

These acts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are inconsistent with international law and are the latest in repeated threats to the status quo in the South China Sea, directly threatening regional peace and stability.  By impeding necessary provisions from reaching the Filipino service members stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, the PRC has also undertaken unwarranted interference in lawful Philippine maritime operations.

On a high note, the President’s visit to the Western Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) in Palawan last June 23 paved way to narratives and policy direction. After his talk to the troops, especially to the members of the WESCOM who conducted the RORE mission to Ayungin Shoal last June 17,  the President gave his commitment and resolve to support the dedicated and courageous men and women in the Armed Forces in their fight to defend Philippine territory. Strongly mentioned in his speech dated June 24 was, “(h)istory itself can tell that we have never, never in the Philippines yielded to any foreign power. We owe to our forefathers the duty to keep the freedoms that they fought, bled and died for, and that they presently enjoy. With this, the Philippines has been on strong stance in numerous instances echoing the nations’ will of not giving up an inch, not even a millimeter of its territory to any foreign power.

Looking into the lens of Indo-Pacific Security and Philippine Strategic Policy 

This strategic policy intent was guided by over-all geopolitical alignment of the Philippines in Indo-Pacific Security and ASEAN partnerships. On one occasion, Secretary of National Defense Atty. Gilbert Teodoro said that what ensued in the Ayungin is not a misunderstanding or an accident. It is a deliberate act of the Chinese officialdom to prevent Philippines from completing the resupply mission. He said, “After our visit to our troops in Palawan yesterday, where the President personally talked to the troops involved in the RORE we have now come to a conclusion that it was not a misunderstanding or an accident. We are not downplaying the incident. It was an aggressive and illegal use of force. We, however, continue to find peaceful solutions to this issue. As pointed out by the President, “we are not in the business to instigate wars. The Philippines is a responsible state. We will continue to exercise our freedoms and rights in support of our national interest, in accordance with international law.”

The United States of America, on one hand, categorically said that US policy on the WPS has not changed and will continue to support Philippines, being one of its long standing ally, through the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). As of the present, President Bongbong Marcos gave the green light for the acquisition of Multi-Role Fighters according to AFP Chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. during today’s First-semester command conference in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City. He reiterated that there was no decision yet as to what multi-role fighter to obtain or the numbers to procure.

Another Rep. Raul “Boboy” C. Tupas led a dialogue on May 20, 2024 on an alleged Gentleman’s Agreement. Former Executive Secretary Salvador C. Medialdea, former Secretary of National Defense and now Chairperson of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) Delfin N. Lorenzana, and former National Security Adviser Hermogenes C. Esperon, Jr. were called last legislative inquiry about a thorough Investigation in aid of legislation on the reported Gentlemen’s Agreement between former President Rodrigo R. Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Said officials all denied the existence of an alleged “Gentleman’s Agreement” but shared some information on the interactions between former President Rodrigo R. Duterte and People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping.

Former ES Medialdea clarified that the “status quo” practiced by the Duterte administration stemmed from the previous agreement entered by former Secretary of National Defense Voltaire Gazmin and an official from the Chinese embassy to supply only food and water to the troops in BRP Sierra Madre located in Ayungin Shoal. Note that a gentleman’s agreement (e.g., executive agreement) is allowed under international law and does not require any formalities, however, its validity depends on its contents which must not be contrary to the Constitution of any state. Nonetheless, if there was an agreement, it was rescinded by current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

US, Japan, and Philippines Trilateral Defense Formula

Meanwhile, prior to Trilateral Summit between US, Japan, and Philippines – as three Indo-Pacific maritime democracies last April, there was a call among agencies for a political dialogue to tackle Senate Bill No. 654 proposed by Senator Francis “Tol” N. Tolentino  or the Philippine Navy Archipelagic Defense Act that seeks to establish Philippine Navy forward operating bases. Director Jose Harry M. Barber of the Policy and Development and Planning Service (PDPS) of the Office of the Civil Defense (OCD) impressed something well-grounded during the last hearing on some Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) concerns last March 5, 2024. He manifested the agency’s full support of the passage of subject bills and acknowledged the proposed bills’ significance particularly at the local level through nature-based solution and cost-effective initiative.

Following this, the Department of National Defense (DND) and other security sector member agencies became busy for the trilateral summit recently conducted. As a backgrounder, on April 10, 2024, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio held an important bilateral summit which resulted in a historic agreement that upgraded these countries longstanding defense alliance by including and strengthening the following, to wit:

1. Establishment of a US-Japan Alliance Joint Command and Control Structure that will allow seamless integration of operations and capabilities between US forces in Japan and the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF), allowing for greater inter-operability and planning during contingency and peacetime situations;

2. Japan together with the US and Australia would work on upgrading and integrating their defense communications and air defense networks to counter air and missile threats;

3. Japan would work together with US and Australia in joint development and manufacture of future weapon and defense systems;

4. Japanese shipyards will be participating in maintenance and repair of US naval ships in the region;

5. Japan and the US will establish a working group for cooperation on fighter pilot training, including development and use of AI and advanced simulators, and co-development and co-production of jet trainers; and

6. The US committed to start the training pipeline and ship modifications for Japan to acquire operational capability of the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) system, and cooperation in the development of the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) program to counter high-end, regional hypersonic threats.

The United States has also reiterated its unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan under Article V of the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation (their version of Mutual Defense Treaty) as well as confirming the inclusion of Senkaku Islands in the treaty coverage, as well as using the US’ full range of capabilities including nuclear capabilities. Although not yet an actual commitment, the US together with its AUKUS partners Australia and the United Kingdom are considering including Japan in the AUKUS Pillar II program which aims to developed advanced defense capabilities. 

Now, these developments will definitely affect the security landscape of the region especially as Japan has started to make changes in the interpretation of its pacifist Constitution, as well as increase its defense spending to 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and making it the 3rd largest defense spender in the world in a few years.

Way Ahead and Strategic Policy Direction as a Nation

As way forward, the United States Senators Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and Tim Kaine (D-VA), members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on April 10, 2024 introduced the Philippines Enhanced Resilience Act of 2024 (PERA Act), a bill to strengthen and modernize the U.S.-Philippines alliance through significantly increased U.S. security assistance. 

The bipartisan legislation follows increased aggression by PRC in the South China Sea and comes as the United States, Japan, and the Philippines hold a leaders-level summit in Washington, D.C., on April 11, 2024.

If approved as a law, the Philippines Enhanced Resilience Act of 2024 will authorize $500 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) grant assistance to the Philippines annually for each of fiscal years 2025 through 2029—a total of $2.5 billion over five fiscal years. That is more than enough to allow the Philippine Air Force (PAF) to procure a squadron of F-16 Block 70 Vipers, and if the Philippine Government can find more funding, such can be added to allow the DND to procure between thirty-six (36) to forty-two (42) Vipers over the next five (5) years by bulk buying and make use of economies of scale.

In this regard, the challenge lies on the re-election of President Donald Trump. How will the Philippines assess and navigate its defense posturing and national security stake with the reinstallation of Trump Administration vis-à-vis Marcos Administration? Will the US be actively joining the QUAD for China’s containment or will it be more lax to re-emphasize its Making America Great Again (MAGA) political banner from domestic to external actors towards multilateral scale? Or US will be more focused on its minilateral political alignment i.e. a more US-centric and lesser stance in Middle-East policy such as the withdrawal of military enforcement in Iraq during its stint? Things like these need to be answered from both parties before this year ends as Ukraine-Russia War has been scaling up with North Korean intervention at the inception of new Russian strategic warfare, as well the continued tension between China and Taiwan in East Asian plethora; something that ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific Security member-states need to re-examine whether to navigate on various existing and prospective bilateral or multilateral mechanisms in the region. 

Also, to meet the challenges of the times, the DND is pursuing a new Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) which aims to broaden the strategic depth of the AFP in protecting its forces within the country’s legal boundaries. Long term plans and development of capabilities aligned with CADC, the AFP can preserve the interests and patrimony of the Filipino people. 

Further, the Philippines will continue its rotation and resupply missions on a regular basis for the welfare of Filipino troops in the BRP Sierra Madre – being a matter of utmost importance. To assure the security of Philippine troops and the citizenry, a stronger and more assertive stance on an international platform is crucial and must be prioritized over the desire of having China be held accountable for its legal ramifications and violations. Diplomatic and political security / defense cooperation efforts must be intensified to garner international support and recognition of our sovereign rights in the WPS.

As a nation in the verge of security pandemonium, may we not forget to call out China’s acts of aggressive militarization and dangerous tactical operation in order for Filipinos to show more commitment in devising peaceful and diplomatic solutions while at the same time pushing for strategic educational reforms that aims not only to educate but that the same time train the citizenry to be physically and intellectually prepared when the Nation calls for aid. The mandatory Reserve Officer’s Training Corps (ROTC) with well-templated Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR), if passed, will be the enabling legislation that will signify this call to action. 

At this juncture, diplomatic channels must remain to be utilized in addressing this pressing issue in accordance with international law. Furthermore, there must be an increased funding for the welfare and training of our troops stationed in the WPS. Filipino troops must be equipped and prepared to handle any aggressive maneuvers by foreign forces. 

Moreover, the Congress’ support for the approval of budget allocations aimed at enhancing maritime defense capabilities if approved and implemented will be a huge step forward towards asserting our strategic geopolitical stance in the WPS. And lastly, genuine and in good faith recognition and support for the families of those affected by those past incidents are also vital. These are not trivial matters that the Philippines and even the ASEAN region can easily ignore, and so – to engage more with international partners in ensuring regional stability and security in the region amidst enmeshed geopolitical balancing act or recalibrated steps as another call to action for the Philippine policy direction to consider in the coming days.

*Ideas and/or views expressed here are entirely independent and not in any form represent author’s organization and affiliation.

About the authors:

• Atty. Fatima J. Saquilayan, JD, CPHR is a Certified Data Privacy Officer (DPO) and a Certified Professional in Human Resources (CPHR) and qualified as Arbitrator with the Office for Alternative Dispute Resolution, Department of Justice. She is currently a Human Resource Director, Emilio Aguinaldo College; Legal Counsel, Cavite Historical Society; and a Lecturer: Claro M. Recto Academy of Advanced Studies (Lyceum of the Philippines); De La Salle University-Philippines; and Law Professor at Emilio Aguinaldo College Institute of the Law and Justice. Her research interests focus on international relations, humanitarian security, sustainable development, and labor law and migration, and cybersecurity.
• Jumel G. Estrañero is a defense, security, & political analyst and a university lecturer in the Philippines. He has completed the Executive Course in National Security at the National Defense College of the Philippines and has participated in NADI Track II discussions in Singapore and Pacific Forum’s Cybersecurity Dialogue. His articles have appeared in Global Security Review, Geopolitical Monitor, Global Village Space, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippine Star, Manila Times, Malaya Business Insights, Asia Maritime Review, The Nation (Thailand), Southeast Asian Times, and Global Politics and Social Science Research Network. He worked in the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Office of Civil Defens e, National Security Council-Office of the President, and currently in the Department of the National Defense. He is currently teaching in De La Salle University Philippines while in the government and formerly taught at Lyceum of the Philippines as part-time lecturer. He is the co-author of the books titled: Disruptive Innovations, Transnational Organized Crime and Terrorism: A Philippine Terrorism Handbook, and Global Security Studies Journal (Springer Link, United States). He is an alumnus of ASEAN Law Academy Advanced Program in Center for International Law, National University Singapore and Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland. He is also a Juris Doctor student.