New Wave Of Terrorism: The ‘Resurrection’ Of The Islamic State – Analysis

Although it seemed just a few years ago that the Islamic State was a thing of the past and would fade into history, this radical Islamist organization is still active. Moreover, it remains one of the most significant non-state political actors globally. Over the past few years, ISIS, or ISIL, has experienced a revival and a new renaissance, not only in its base in Syria and Iraq but also in Afghanistan, Nigeria, Mozambique, Southeast Asia, and other regions. ISIS has proven to be a highly resilient organization, ready to adapt to circumstances and capable of regenerating despite numerous adversaries.

The Rapid Rise and Fall of the Islamic State

The organization capitalized on the chaos and disorder that followed the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, seizing vast parts of both countries. In 2014 and 2015, it controlled large areas of both nations (about the size of the UK) and declared the Caliphate of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. By the end of 2015, ISIL had under its control 12 million inhabitants, with an annual budget of one billion dollars from oil and gas revenues, and 30,000 armed fighters with quality military equipment captured from the Iraqi and Syrian armies. Its greatest achievement was the capture of Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, which was under jihadist control from the summer of 2014 to the summer of 2017.

A reign of terror was imposed, including a radical Sharia system, looting, kidnappings, cultural destruction, killings, and the persecution of all dissenters, including Shia Muslims, Jews, Christians, and others. A genocide was carried out against the Yazidis. Besides Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State also managed to seize territories in Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Nigeria, Mali, Pakistan, and other places. Despite its successes, ISIL could not hold on for long in Iraq and Syria due to its inferiority compared to professional armies and the Russian and US interventions. By the spring of 2019, ISIL had lost nearly all its territory in Iraq and Syria and was confined to desert pockets and underground cells. By the end of 2020, guerrilla activities had further diminished. However, in recent years, there has been a reversal.

Back From the Dead

Today, in the summer of 2024, ISIS is alive and well, and it is the most active it has been in the past five years. The organization is particularly active in Syria, where it leads a low-intensity but highly persistent insurgency. ISIL’s presence is strongest in desert regions like the eastern parts of the provinces (governorates) of Homs, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor. These Syrian provinces have become the site of frequent ISIL guerrilla attacks on the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces and local militias.

For example, in February 2023, 53 people were killed in the Homs province in the town of Ain Sokhna. In January this year, 14 SAA soldiers were killed in Palmyra. In Iraq, the Islamic State maintains an extensive network of secret cells (many members being disillusioned supporters of the late Saddam Hussein), especially in the northern and western parts of the country. While the group has significantly weakened, its cells still carry out guerrilla attacks on Iraqi security forces and civilians. The jihadist presence is most prominent in the provinces of Kirkuk, Nineveh, and Anbar.

A report by the U.S. Secretary of Defense in mid-July revealed that the number of ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq has dramatically increased this year, and their number could double by the end of the year compared to last year. Although international recognized governments, Kurdish forces (YPG), Russian, Iranian, American, Turkish, and other troops are acting against ISIS in these two countries, the radical Islamist organization remains unfazed. During 2023, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for a total of 121 terrorist attacks, while in the first six months of this year, it took responsibility for 153 attacks. The US anti-terrorist coalition, in cooperation with Kurdish forces, carried out around 200 missions against ISIS in the first half of 2024, in which they eliminated 44 operatives and captured 166. However, this has not discouraged them. In July, ISIS organized an attack on a Shia mosque in Oman. Six people were killed, and more than 30 were wounded. ISIS is active in secret cells in Pakistan and Indonesia. In recent years, the organization has been most successful in parts of Africa with Muslim populations. Since the beginning of 2021, Islamic State forces have managed to seize certain areas in civil wars in Nigeria, Mozambique, as well as establish secret cells in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Dangerous activity of ISIS-K

In Afghanistan, the ISIS branch known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) remains very active, even though the Taliban took control of the country exactly two years ago. The hatred and rivalry between the Islamic State and the Taliban are well-known. ISIL cells are most active in the eastern Afghan provinces such as Nangarhar and Kunar, but also in neighboring countries like Pakistan and the republics of Central Asia. In January, ISIS-K organized a bombing in Kerman, Iran, which killed about 100 people and injured 284. In March, the organization carried out a large terrorist attack in a concert hall in Krasnogorsk, killing 145 people and injuring more than 500. The organization is responsible for numerous attacks on Taliban state institutions as well as on civilians.

At the beginning of August, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism, Vladimir Voronkov, highlighted ISIS-K’s alarming ability to conduct terrorist attacks abroad. Besides the attack in Krasnogorsk, Voronkov emphasized the organization’s ability to gain support from the Afghan and Central Asian diaspora in Europe, calling ISIS-K “the greatest external terrorist threat.” He warned that Afghanistan must not become a terrorist hub again like in the 1990s. The Taliban government has rejected any connection with the Islamic State, claiming it has largely eliminated the group’s hideouts. Experts note that ISIS-K is heavily exploiting anti-Israeli sentiments among Muslims, which have surfaced due to the current Israel-Hamas war, to fuel the radicalism of its sympathizers.

Jihadism – An Ideology With a Thousand Lives

Many thought that the problem of the Islamic State was resolved when the organization’s supreme leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in October 2019. His death coincided with the general collapse of ISIL forces. However, it has once again been proven that radical Sunni Islamist organizations, unlike classical nationalist ideologies such as German Nazism and Italian Fascism, are not tied to leaders but to ideas.

Time and again, the deaths of prominent jihadists have not resulted in the collapse of Islamism. History continuously shows that leaders can be eliminated, but ideas cannot. Just a few examples suffice. The so-called father of the “jihadist-Salafist movement,” Egyptian Islamic theologian Sayyid Ibrahim Husayn Qutb, was executed in 1966 for conspiring to assassinate Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser. The founder and leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor of ISIS, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was killed in a U.S. airstrike on June 7, 2006, near Baqubah. Al-Zarqawi was responsible for many brutal attacks in Iraq, including executions and bombings.

Perhaps the most famous jihadist of all time, Osama bin Laden, leader of Al-Qaeda, was killed on May 2, 2011, in a US special forces operation in Pakistan. Bin Laden was responsible for numerous terrorist attacks, including the most horrific attacks on the U.S. on September 11, 2001. In the same year, on September 30, US drone strikes in Yemen killed Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S. citizen and senior leader of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Eleven years later, on July 31, 2022, in a US drone strike in Kabul, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who succeeded bin Laden as the leader of Al-Qaeda, was killed. Zawahiri had been bin Laden’s long-time deputy and a key figure in planning many terrorist attacks. All these mentioned Islamists are the elite of the global jihadist movement and the greatest authorities who are no longer alive. However, the problem of radical Islamism in 2024 is no smaller than it was in 2004.

Reasons for the Resurgence

The reasons behind the Islamic State’s significant resurgence are complex and not easily explained. In Syria and Iraq (and similar arguments apply elsewhere), it can be unequivocally stated that jihadists exploited the “complacency” of the local governments and foreign troops, who believed the problem was resolved and entered into a well-known and highly dangerous comfort zone. After the defeat of ISIS, the Syrian and Iraqi forces, along with foreign allies, withdrew from the liberated areas, leaving behind weak security and military forces unable to maintain order and stability. This allowed ISIS members to reorganize and prepare for new actions, particularly in the rural and desert regions of Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State was significantly aided by the fact that the US, as well as Israel, focused on the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shiite militias rather than radical Sunnis, who pose a much greater threat to the Collective West. In reality, Shiite Iran does not intend to change regimes in the West or organize terrorist attacks for that purpose, while Sunni radicals do.

After more than a decade of warfare, ISIS fighters have become more experienced and skilled in strategic planning for military and terrorist operations. It has been shown that military tactics and strategies are best learned in combat. Similarly, this time ISIS’s insurgency is slower and less flashy than before but certainly more sophisticated. Economic difficulties in the region, including high unemployment and poverty rates, have further fueled the recruitment of new fighters. Many young people with no prospects for a better life join militant groups as a means to secure income and a sense of belonging. Furthermore, prisons in Iraq and Syria, where many ISIS members were incarcerated, have become centers of radicalization and recruitment.

Uprisings and escapes from prisons (led by corrupt administrations) have allowed experienced fighters to return to the battlefield, further strengthening ISIS’s capabilities. It is estimated that around 10,000 ISIS members are currently serving prison sentences in Syria and Iraq. If they were somehow freed (which is not impossible given the political instability there), ISIS would gain a massive boost for new large-scale offensives. Currently, ISIS has a force of about 3,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq. Jihadists benefit from the digital age in which we live. Thanks to the widespread internet, social media, smartphones, and other technological devices, Islamist propaganda spreads uncontrollably around the world.

Planned Terrorist Attack in Vienna

Recent history shows that concerts have become a favorite target for terrorists due to the large number of people in a confined space. From 1996 to 2020, there were 33 actual or planned terrorist attacks at concerts worldwide, resulting in 263 deaths. In 70% of cases, attackers used bombs and other explosive devices, while in 24% of cases, firearms were used. In November 2015, an ISIS unit attacked a concert audience at the Bataclan in Paris, killing 89 people.

An ISIS suicide bomber carried out a bombing at a concert by American singer Ariana Grande in May 2017 in Manchester, killing 22 people and injuring more than a thousand. Then there was the attack in Krasnogorsk this year. Had American intelligence agencies not uncovered it, a spectacular terrorist attack would have occurred in Vienna at the beginning of August. The target was supposed to be one of three planned concerts by the world’s most popular singer, Taylor Swift. Given the immense popularity of the American megastar, the consequences could have been the most severe to date. Each concert was to gather 65,000 spectators in the stadium, creating a huge number of targets and potential victims with around 20,000 visitors outside the stadium. It is known that the target was not Swift herself but the audience inside and outside the Ernst Happel Stadium.

Once again, Salafist propaganda through the internet and social media among the youth was a key trigger for the attack. All four of the identified attackers were teenagers aged 19, 18, 17, and 15. The mastermind of the operation was a 19-year-old who planned a suicide attack with the goal of killing as many “infidels” as possible. Police found explosives, detonators, knives, machetes, and ISIS literature with the suspect. He even had a rotating light on his vehicle that is used by the police, which could have taken him to a crowd of people. The 17-year-old worked for a company that provided security for the concert. Although the suspects were Austrian citizens, they had Turkish, Iraqi, Croatian, and North Macedonian origins. The planned attack was a significant blow to the Austrian state. First, the attack would likely have occurred if not for the intervention of the Americans. Second, it was demonstrated that a small group of terrorists could prevent three major concerts from taking place. One might wonder what would have happened if a terrorist unit of 10-20 members appeared. Third, given that fans of Swift (Swifties) from around the world, especially the US, were expected to attend the concerts, it would have been a huge embarrassment and a bad advertisement for Austria. Fourth, Vienna missed out on the economic “boom” that the concerts would have brought. For example, eight Swift concerts in London brought the city $400 million.

The “Bright” Future of Terrorism

Considering the current geopolitical circumstances and the perennial characteristics of the global jihadist movement, it can be anticipated that Islamist terrorism has a “bright” future in the near term. No major power addresses the problem of jihadism, with the primary threats being identified as rival powers—NATO, Russia, China, Iran (depending on the perspective). The Islamic State will continue to be active in its base, Iraq, Syria, and the broader Middle East. Terrorist and military actions could further destabilize states in the Middle East, Sahel, South and Central Asia, and trigger new political, economic, and humanitarian crises.

The ongoing wars in the Holy Land, Syria, Myanmar, and African countries benefit the Islamists. The migrant crisis at the European Union’s borders could be exacerbated by an influx of refugees from violence-stricken areas. Additionally, terrorist attacks are expected to occur in Europe, Russia, the United States, and elsewhere. In Europe, it can be anticipated that targets will include events related to the Christmas and New Year holidays, concerts by popular musicians, and sporting events like the UEFA Champions League. The fact that one of the Vienna jihadists was of Croatian origin demands special attention from Croatian intelligence services and politics. It should not be forgotten that Islamist radicalism in Bosnia and Herzegovina (strong and entrenched Wahhabi-Salafi community), which has been steadily growing for the past thirty years, is a serious concern. Potential terrorist attacks on the Adriatic coast during the tourist season, such as Split’s Ultra Europe Festival or other events, could severely damage Croatian tourism for a long time, as happened in Sri Lanka. Islamist terrorism is a massive threat, but it seems that many influential circles either do not know or do not want to acknowledge it.