North Korea Joins Russia In Ukraine War – Analysis
Russia’s recent mutual defence treaty with North Korea and subsequent ratification by Russia’s State Duma, the lower House of the country’s parliament, has injected a new dimension to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This Russia-North Korea bonhomie has drawn Ukraine as a proxy battlefield for Korean Peninsula tensions. Those stakeholders working for peace are alarmed by this development as the fault-lines are showing bigger cracks. The larger implications are on issues of disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Indo-Pacific region, with added focus on Japan, China and the Korean Peninsula.
The “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty signed in June in Pyongyang during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit includes a clause committing the two states to providing military support “without delay” if either is attacked.
The ratification of the security treaty by the Russian Parliament has led the Ukraine crisis into a hazardous new phase. Recent intelligence reports from the US revealed that North Korea has sent thousands of troops to Russia to aid fight against Ukraine on Russia’s behalf. As reported in the New York Times, John F. Kirby, a national security spokesman at the White House, said North Korea had sent at least 3,000 soldiers into training sites in eastern Russia between early- to mid-October 2024.
These soldiers believed to have travelled by ship from the Wonsan area in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia. The soldiers then travelled onward to multiple Russian military training sites in Eastern Russia, where they are currently believed to be undergoing training. Though there is no information as of now if these soldiers will enter into combat alongside the Russian military, but this is certainly a highly concerning probability.
The participation of North Korean soldiers in Russia’s war in Ukraine, though a dramatic move, also could mean a sign of Russia’s weakness, not strength, as Russia that boasts of a mighty military power had to depend on a tiny new allay for its war in Ukraine. Viewed differently, this unprecedented level of direct military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is indeed a matter of worry as the security implications in Europe and the Indo-Pacific could be huge.
Being concerned about this new twist as the Korean Peninsula and Inter-Korean issue has escalated further following the Russia-North Korea bonhomie, South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador and urged the immediate withdrawal of North Korean soldiers from Russia. Interestingly, the Kremlin has denied the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia despite satellite pictures testify to the contrary. Since the security environment centring on inter-Korean relations in the Korean Peninsula is already fragile and volatile, the deployment of third-party ground forces risks transforming the conflict between Russia and Ukraine into even more of a global security crisis.
The military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is scaled up dramatically after Vladimir Putin visited North Korea and signed a comprehensive defense treaty in June 2024. After North Korea started supplying ammunition to Russia, bilateral ties between the two developed into a more sustained partnership. South Korea’s intelligence agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that dozens of North Korean officers and one prominent missile development expert, Kim Jong-sik, travelled to Russian frontline positions providing direct guidance on using Pyongyang’s weaponry to Moscow’s forces. The presence of these officers marks North Korea’s significant shift from arms supplier to active participant.
This collaboration offers mutual benefits. Due to the prolonged war, Russia badly needed munitions and potential manpower from North Korea. In the three-year conflict, Russia has the casualty of between 100,000 and 200,000 soldiers and therefore it is expected that Russia would induct around 10,000 troops from North Korea by December 2024.
Putin is aware that North Korea has a massive conventional military, with 1.3 million active soldiers and an additional 7.6 million on reserve, almost a third of its population. North Korean soldiers are experienced and serving a mandatory eight to ten years but their actual capabilities is less known since the country remains isolated. It is also believed despite bold claims, North Korea possess outdated weapons systems.
This is because an estimated half of the KN-23 missiles used by Russia believed to have exploded midair. This offers crucial insights to how sophisticated are North Korea’s military technological capabilities. Pyongyang’s adversaries such as the US and South Korea are obviously aware of this.
There are other adverse consequences that Kim Jong-un need to factor in. The distressed member of troops deployed to the frontlines would be more miserable now, though they continue to stay under domestic control and have no option than to suffer. Also, if some North Korean troops decide to use this opportunity to defect or claim exceptional considerations if captured as prisons of war, human rights issue can make international highlights. The world knows that the Kim regime takes defection as a serious affront and issues strict punishments, including imprisonment of family members or even execution for some returned defectors.
Obviously South Korea is alarmed as it would have reason to feel that North Korea’s military involvement in Ukraine could both legitimise Pyongyang’s weapons program and provide combat experience that could threaten South Korean security. Seoul also contends that North Korean troops in Ukraine violate UN precedents, including recent UN General Assembly resolutions condemning military cooperation with Russia.
There is indeed a danger that the participation of a third nation in Ukraine conflict risks triggering a global war, given the complex web of security alliances and the potential for escalation beyond Ukraine’s borders. Russia however counters that the current cooperation between Russia and North Korea does not run counter to the security interests of South Korea and that such cooperation is being realized within the framework of international law.
The US considers the involvement of North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict on Russia’s behalf as a major escalation and shall have serious impact not only in Europe but in the Indo-Pacific as well. The Russia-North Korea defence deal signals a fundamental shift in global power dynamics.
Japan too is concerned about the deepening of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia as worrying, given its impact on the security of the region surrounding Japan. So, the situation is more complicated and risk threshold is feared to be breached any time.
