Political Crisis In Georgia: What Are The Scenarios For The Country’s Future? – Analysis

For several days now, tens of thousands of Georgians have been taking to the streets to demand new parliamentary elections and to denounce the government’s decision to suspend negotiations to join the European Union. It is therefore necessary to explore possible scenarios for the future of this small Caucasus country in the grip of a serious political crisis.

The protests are growing in intensity. For the second week, tens of thousands of people have been demonstrating daily to protest the government’s decision to halt the EU accession process until 2028 and call for new elections.

In major Georgian cities such as Tbilisi, Batumi, Rustavi, Gori or Zugdidi, and even in more peaceful places such as Khashuri or Lagodekhi, impressive crowds gather every evening to express their anger against the Georgian Dream Party, which has been in power since 2012. Accused by its opponents of pro-Russian authoritarianism and of having “stolen” the October 26 parliamentary elections, the party is at the center of the protests.

The movement goes beyond the streets. Hundreds of officials from the foreign, defense, and education ministries, as well as judges, have issued joint statements of protest. More than a hundred schools and universities have closed their doors. Some 160 Georgian diplomats denounced the unconstitutional decision to halt the EU accession process, and key Georgian ambassadors resigned, including to the United States, the Netherlands, and Lithuania.

In the face of these protests, the authorities intensified their repression. In Tbilisi, police used water cannons, tear gas, and even rubber bullets. The Interior Ministry reported more than 220 arrests, and dozens of demonstrators, journalists, and police officers were injured – a toll that continues to rise each night.

Escalating repression

The ruling party appears ready to adopt an intransigent stance, ignoring calls for new elections by protesters and pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili. The latter, who has openly broken with the government, has limited prerogatives but has declared her intention to remain in office until a president is elected by a “legitimate” parliament.

Recent scenes of repression provide a worrying glimpse into this situation. A prolonged crackdown threatens not only to further discredit the government on the international stage, but also to accelerate the country’s democratic backsliding.

The country is on the brink of political implosion, and the situation is only getting worse. The demonstrations could intensify and lead to political repression, distancing Georgia from its democratic values by failing to respect the opposition.

It is now clear that the protest movement is not abating. In fact, it is growing in intensity. Faced with this pressure, the government may be tempted to step up repression. Without intervention from the international community, the crisis will be settled on the streets, with its share of violence and repression.

The “Authoritarian” status quo could continue

If the protests eventually subside without major violence, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party could maintain its grip on the institutions. The upcoming presidential election on December 14, which now consists of a parliamentary vote rather than a popular election, could mark a turning point. With the majority it enjoys, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream should easily elect a pro-Russian president and consolidate its power.

Unfortunately, President Zurabishvili will not have the means to oppose a government that firmly controls the presidency and parliament. The popular opposition would lack the leverage to influence the situation, especially if the EU and NATO remain passive. The situation could then resemble an authoritarian takeover.

On December 1, the government again rejected any negotiations with the opposition, and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze assured that there would be “no revolution” in Georgia.

New elections under international pressure

Another possible outcome is international mediation. Following the adoption of the “foreign influence” law last spring, Washington imposed financial sanctions and visa restrictions on dozens of Georgian officials and canceled joint military exercises. Brussels, for its part, suspended accession negotiations.

Targeted sanctions against Georgian officials, such as those imposed on December 1 by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia for “human rights violations” during the current pro-EU demonstrations in Tbilisi, could prove decisive.

Europe has important levers of influence at its disposal, notably in the form of visa requirements and funding for infrastructure vital to Georgia’s economy and society. Increased international pressure could force Tbilisi to reverse its decision and hold elections under the supervision of a new electoral administration. However, such a scenario would require Georgian Dream to agree to limit its hold on institutions, which remains doubtful.

A new revolution

The current situation could also lead to a popular revolution similar to the Rose Revolution of 2003, which led to the ouster of President Eduard Shevardnadze, a former Soviet minister during Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika era. Protesters could draw inspiration from this peaceful popular movement against the autocratic excesses of the ruling power.

On the other hand, a revolution similar to Maidan in Ukraine in 2014 seems less likely. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has drawn a parallel between the current situation in Georgia and the events of Maidan, which led to the overthrow of then pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. In the aftermath, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and provided military support to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

When the Russians invoke Maidan, it’s to instill fear. They want to demonstrate that the pursuit of democracy inevitably leads to bloodshed and subsequent wars. Their message to the Georgians is clear: if you want democracy, be prepared to suffer the consequences.

Finally, a Belarus-style scenario cannot be ruled out. As in the “slipper revolution” of 2020, Georgia could slide into a brutal crackdown on peaceful protests: mass arrests, systematic violence, institutional lockdowns, and border controls. The Georgian authorities may be tempted to emulate the violent methods of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in order to avoid being overthrown.

It is difficult to predict the outcome of the current situation. Georgia is at a crossroads where everything could tip over into a peaceful revolution or a cycle of violence. How determined and responsive the demonstrators and the authorities are will determine everything.