New Direction Of US Under Trump: From Climate Leadership To Fossil Fuel Dominance – OpEd

At a rally in Virginia last June, he mocked climate change: “Global warming is fine. In fact, I heard it was going to be very warm today. It’s fine.” Then, unable to stop himself, he continued joking: “The ocean may rise one eighth of an inch in the next 497 years, they say, one eighth, which gives you a little bit more waterfront property if you’re lucky enough to own.” (1)

It is not hard to guess that the owner of these sentences has no interest in taking precautions against global warming.

On the contrary, the goal of Trump and his team, who will be moving into the White House in the coming days, is to produce more oil, gas and coal. Their slogan is self-explanatory: “Drill, baby, drill.”

The new president has made it one of his top priorities to establish “energy dominance” in the world by increasing fossil fuel production. (2) To achieve this, it is expected that he will open public lands for exploration, accelerate permits for fossil fuel investments, relax environmental regulations, eliminate clean energy incentives, and end tax breaks for electric vehicles. Other expected developments include withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement once again and reducing the US’s climate finance commitments.

Think tanks closely aligned with Trump are also calling for the promotion of abundant energy access for the American people and the cessation of collaboration and funding for NGOs advocating for climate change action.^,(3) (4) Meanwhile, Chris Wright, a petroleum and gas company executive considered for the Department of Energy, is known for denying the reality of climate change. (5)

Although renewable energy costs are now more advantageous than fossil fuels in many cases, making the energy transition irreversible, the new approach within the US administration may slow down the transition to cleaner energies worldwide. 

When we evaluate this entire picture together, it becomes evident that the progress made in climate action under Biden’s presidency is likely to be jeopardized in the new era, with previously suppressed fossil fuel investments regaining momentum. While renewable energy costs are now more competitive than fossil fuels in many cases, Trump policies could slow down the transition to cleaner energies all over the world.

In fact, the US’s fossil fuel production has not slowed down under Biden’s presidency either. On the contrary, the country became the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas by a wide margin. It accounts for about one-fifth of global oil production and a quarter of natural gas production. It is also the fourth-largest coal producer. Nearly 10 percent of global crude oil exports and more than 20 percent of petroleum product exports are made by the US. It dominates the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market with a 20 percent share and ranks fourth in coal exports with a 7 percent share. (6) While it doesn’t seem easy given the current market conditions, we can easily say that Trump’s attempt to surpass this profile will have shocking effects in many regions.

Whether Trump will follow through on his promises and reduce energy costs by increasing fossil fuel production remains to be seen. However, in this new era, many countries will be closely watching Trump’s energy policies, particularly nations like Russia and the Gulf countries, whose economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports. On the other hand, falling prices would present opportunities for many energy-importing developing countries, including China and India. Trump’s policies could lower these countries’ energy costs while also reducing the climate-related pressure to move away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, Trump’s potential imposition of high tariffs on energy imports has already caused panic in his two neighbors, Canada and Mexico. (7) However, it’s likely that the effects of such policies will not be limited to these two countries.  

Among those most affected by Trump’s energy and climate policies is the European Union (EU). The loss of support from the US, which has been its most important partner in climate action in recent years, will make the EU’s efforts in climate diplomacy more difficult and make decarbonization policies much more costly. Moreover, Trump’s incentives to boost LNG exports will elevate the EU’s dependence on US energy to even higher levels, especially amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. Whether this will mean “jumping out of the frying pan into the fire” for the EU remains to be seen.  

In conclusion, with Trump’s return, the direction of global energy and the future of efforts to combat climate change appear to be in limbo. If the rhetoric of the campaign translates into action, we could see roadmaps being reassessed in many countries, with energy plans being revised in a way that weakens climate commitments.

Endnotes:

1.  The New York Times, 2024. “At the Republican National Convention, Climate Change Isn’t a Problem”, by Lisa Friedman, July 15, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/climate/republicans-climate-change-fossil-fuels.html.
2.  Time, 2024. “Breaking Down Donald Trump’s Call for ‘Energy Dominance’ and Its Potential Real-World Limits”, by Matthew Daly, November 30, 2024. https://time.com/7199047/donald-trump-energy-dominance-plans-limits/.
3.  Forbes, 2024. “Trump Defends Nominating People With Project 2025 Ties: Here’s The Full List”, by Alison Durkee, Dec 12, 2024, https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/12/12/trump-defends-nominating-people-with-project-2025-ties-heres-the-full-list/
4.  Project 2025, Presidential Transition Project, 2024. “The Truth About Project 2025”, https://www.project2025.org/truth/
5.  The New York Times, 2024. “Trump’s Choice to Run Energy Says Fossil Fuels Are Virtuous”, By Lisa Friedman, December 12, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/climate/wright-trump-oil-gas-energy.html.
6.  Energy Institute, 2024. Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review/home.
7.  The Japan Times, 2024. No winners seen in Trump’s ‘destructive’ energy tariffs, By Lucia Kassai, Robert Tuttle and Elizabeth Elkin, December 13, 2024, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/12/13/economy/trump-energy-tariffs-no-winners/.