The Indo-Pak War Scenario – OpEd

The unsettled Kashmir dispute and conflicting geopolitical intentions have exacerbated the India Pakistan rivalry, and precipitated it to dangerous heights following the April 2025 Pahalgam attack. Recent developments seem to indicate that Pakistan is also emerging as strategically more superior of the two. Pakistan’s strategy is multifaceted in that it has exposed India’s vulnerabilities, compelling South Asia’s power dynamics to be redrawn. 

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is its ultimate safety in the event India presses its failure of conventional superiority. Pakistani strategy is different from India’s declared No First Use doctrine. Islamabad deliberately retains a strategic ambiguity on the use of nuclear weapons, reserving the right to do so if Pakistan’s sovereignty or its very survival is threatened. After the Pahalgam attack, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif’s stance once again forces an existential calculus upon New Delhi. India’s conventional advantages are mooted because of the catastrophic risks accompanying escalation, neutralizing India’s ability to pursue large scale military objectives. The recent flare up of violence along the Line of Control (LoC) is an example of this trend. A day after Pakistan crushed India’s infantry brigade headquarters, drone installations and battalion’s posts, New Delhi humiliated itself by admitting defeat in the Chora sector with the symbolic white flag, which is a highly ineffective form of conventional brinkmanship.

The alliances with China and Gulf states only helps Pakistan gain more from the entire situation. A steadfast ally, Beijing has always been calling for de-escalation, using its UN Security Council position to offset Indian aggression. During the 2025 crisis, while mediating in the conflict, China invested strategically in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), to give its ally Islamabad economic and political insulation. At the same time, it exacerbated pressure points resulting from Pakistan’s outreach to Gulf nations whose financial sway and energy ties with India are vital. Pakistan framed the Kashmir problem as a humanitarian problem and managed to mobilise the Muslim world around it and isolate India in OIC forums.

While India’s GDP far surpassed Pakistan’s, Islamabad has worked to build economic buffer zones with regional partners. During the crisis, the suspension of bilateral trade and closure of airspace disrupted Indian supply chains, revealing Pakistan’s ability to inflict asymmetric economic loss. However, India’s dreams of being a global economic power make it susceptible to backlash from abroad. This asymmetry was brought into sharp relief by the Indus Waters Treaty crisis, in which India suspended water flows. Pakistan, being an agrarian economy, threatened to turn water scarcity as an existential threat, a red line that India can’t afford to cross.

Recently, Pakistan’s military has proved itself tactically fitting in response to India’s missile strikes on civilian targets, including the Mosque in Bahawalpur, Kotli and Muzaffarabad. Further, India’s moral standing eroded as the DG ISPR disclosed India’s ‘shameful’ abhorrence of targeting non-combatants. With Pakistan’s fortified defences on the ground along the LoC, including artillery deployments in Leepa Valley, India’s incursions have been blunted. This resilience is reinforced by public sentiment in Pakistan, especially in conflict zones. ‘Fear doesn’t exist in our language,’ said one activist, emphasizing a sentiment also contained in the nationalist stance of politicians like Khawaja Asif. 

Human rights groups say India’s heavy-handed tactics in Kashmir of mass detentions, property demolitions, silence and censorship have alienated the local population and drawn global condemnation. However, Pakistan’s own narrative of resisting oppression has also chimed with the diasporas and HR organizations, further adding onto India’s pressure. Also, India has proved to be fickle on relying on US support, to avoid antagonizing Pakistan. Washington has been unwilling to jeopardize counter terrorism cooperation.

Pakistan’s edge in the war extends not to acquiring any territory, but to forcing India to pay the price of unsustainable costs. However, by playing on nuclear deterrence, diplomatic networks and asymmetrical tactics Islamabad will compel New Delhi for de-escalation. Pakistan, seeing the cracks appear, could leverage India’s economic disruptions and reputational damage against it in the 2025 crisis, laying bare India’s weaknesses in water diplomacy.

Following Recommendations

• Dialogues through Track-II, mediated by neutral states, Switzerland, for instance, to address core grievances. Kashmir and water rights should be discussed. 
• The UN and World Bank to enforce the Indus Waters Treaty and prepare an inquiry into human rights violations in Kashmir.
• Fight Indian propaganda with campaigns based on facts about the humanitarian crises unfolding in Kashmir.
• Early Warning Systems and Infrastructure hardening to start to enhance community preparedness in border regions. 

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Sun Tzu

Finally, Pakistan’s approach to military preparedness, nuclear deterrence, and flexible diplomacy puts it in a better position to win the long endurance battle against India. Instead of confronting, Islamabad can minimize foreign policy risk by prioritising attrition, thus exposing New Delhi’s strategic overreach.