Mongolia Matters: Upcoming Elections Could Further Democratic Gains—Or Not – OpEd
On June 28th an extraordinary exercise in democratic governance will take place in Central Asia: Mongolians will, for the ninth time since adopting a new constitution, go to the polls and cast their ballots in parliamentary elections.
It was just over 34 years ago when an extraordinary event shook this Central Asian country: a handful of young hunger strikers, driven by an unshakeable belief that communist one-party rule had to end, gathered in the square outside the country’s parliament building and demanded a democratic form of government. The hunger-strikers, eventually joined by tens of thousands of protesters, faced off against hundreds of police waiting orders to clear the square. The slaughter at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square was still fresh in protesters’ minds. There was no backing down for either side. For two months, three weeks, and six days they stood face to face. Then, without a shot being fired, or a club being swung, the governing politburo resigned, a new constitution was adopted, and a democratic Mongolia was born.
Mongolia’s transition to a multiparty democracy was hailed as evidence that governance based on a free press, the rule of law, private enterprise, and a political system built on the will of the people was not a Western concept, but a universal conviction. Countries, such as the U.S. and those in Europe, referred to Mongolia as an “Anchor in the East” for democratic reforms and rushed to embrace Mongolia’s emergence into the world community.
For its part, Mongolia, sandwiched between Russia and China, adopted what it termed a “Third Neighbor” foreign policy to reduce its geographic isolation. In 1996, elections saw the first peaceful transfer of power as the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party, the former communist party now renamed the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), handed control of the government over to a coalition of opposition parties that won 50 of 76 seats in parliament. Since that time, it has been a bumpy road on their democratic journey and challenges remain.
During the past eight years, the MPP has controlled the country and last year pushed through electoral changes that, the MPP stated, would provide greater opportunity for civil society representation. Chief among these is the expansion of seats in parliament, the State Great Kural, from 76 to 126 seats. There will be 78 members elected by majority vote in a dedicated constituency, with 48 selected by proportional representation. The theory behind the expansion is that it will bring legislators closer to their constituents because they will be representing fewer people. Estimates are that a parliamentarian represented 27,000 constituents in 1992. Today, due to population growth, that number is about 44,000. On paper, this looks reasonable. However, it could have the opposite effect.
Critics point out that this could fundamentally cement MPP power within parliament. The MPP dominates parliament holding 62 of 76 seats and its main opponent, the Democratic Party, just 11. Building in a “cushion” of 48 proportional seats would further stretch opposition parties’ resources and provide a “shock absorber” to prevent major shifts in public opinion to be reflected in any one election such as what occurred in 1996.
Dr. Fernando Casal Bertoa, a party politics expert at the University of Nottingham, stated, “The mixed electoral system will not strengthen Mongolia’s democratic governance. What Mongolia needs is more strong political parties, and more female parliamentarians, not less. And the mixed electoral system will not help to achieve these two major elements.”
Writing on this change, former two-term president Elbegdorj Tsakhia warned, “the ruling MPP issued two drastic and controversial changes to the country’s Constitution that will expand the number of parliamentary seats and implement a system where candidates are chosen from party lists. This is a step back, not a step forward, and could permanently cement their political power for the foreseeable future.” Following the June 2021 presidential election, Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, an election consultant and security analyst based in Ulaanbaatar, warned, “the consolidation of power in the hands of the MPP is pushing the country towards a hybrid single-party regime.”
Layered on top of parliamentary changes is the extremely high likelihood of “outside forces,” referred to by Elbegdorj in his op-ed, moving their dark hands into the electoral process through funneling money to preferred candidates and/or the use of social media. In a report published in October 2023, U.S. intelligence identified 17 democracies (including the U.S.) where Russia used social media to undermine confidence in the electoral process and/or generate storylines to support favored candidates. “Russia is using its spy network, state-run media and social media to undermine public trust in elections around the world,” the document stated. Reports of Russia allocating $20 million for influence operations are spreading around Ulaanbaatar.
China uses similar disinformation techniques to advance their foreign policy goals in elections and shape public perceptions on issues. Both Meta and Microsoft documented covert Chinese government plans to manipulate public opinion to support and advance their agenda.
Clearly, it suits both Putin and Xi to have a compliant country on their borders where authoritarianism or dictatorship is the preferred political system. A country holding democratic values and ideals, no matter how small, represents a fundamental threat.
Many might ask: “Why does Mongolia matter? Why is it in the interest of the U.S., or any country, to focus on a state with just over three million people tucked so far away?” The answer is that democratic political systems bend towards common values we cherish—respect for human and individual rights, the rule of law, and free market economics. They are also inherently peaceful and have a stabilizing influence that propagates these values outward. Non-democratic states represent the opposite and at some point, in some way, threaten regional and international peace.
As Mongolia heads into parliamentary elections later this month, it is imperative that the country’s collective “Third Neighbor” democracies strengthen and engage with Mongolia at all levels of the political, economic, and social spectrum. Mongolians will determine their future, but to paraphrase John Lennon, they sure could get by with a little help from their friends.
- Grayden Mitchell, research assistant for this article, attends Syracuse University majoring in political science and will be observing the June elections.
