Challenges Of Demography: The Rapid Growth Of Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Population Threatens Israel’s National Security – Analysis

Demography in Israel is not just about numbers. It is the most important national security issue and a crucial indicator influencing Israeli-Palestinian relations. As of early 2023, around 7.45 million Jews were living in Israel and the West Bank. Approximately the same number, 7.53 million Palestinians or Arabs, lived in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Israel, and East Jerusalem. Given such figures, it is no surprise that Jewish politicians oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, as it would quickly outnumber Israel due to the traditionally stronger fertility rates of Palestinians and potentially better living conditions for Palestinians than currently exist. Such a populous Palestinian state could pose a military threat to Israel. This is why the Israeli right opposes the two-state solution.

At the same time, Israeli/Jewish nationalists are against a single-state solution, even if it were under Israeli control. If Israel were to annex the entire West Bank, and Palestinians remained there, it would pose a significant demographic challenge, potentially leading Palestinians to outnumber Jews significantly over time. This is why Israeli nationalists publicly or secretly advocate for the relocation of Palestinians to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

However, demographic trends are not constant and change over time. In recent years, in Israel and parts of the West Bank under Israeli control, Jewish fertility has been increasing, while Palestinian fertility has been declining (largely due to poor social conditions in the West Bank). However, the rising Jewish fertility also becomes problematic when considering its structure – the significant increase in the separated and privileged ultra-Orthodox Jewish population.

Comparison of Jewish and Arab Fertility

In the decades following the establishment of Israel in 1948, the Arab population had stronger fertility rates than Jews. For example, in 1960, Arab women had an average of 8 children, while Jewish women had 3.5 children. By 1980, the ratio had fallen to 6 children per Arab woman and 3 children per Jewish woman. Around 2000, the ratio further decreased to 4.5 : 2.7 in favor of the Arab population. Due to higher fertility rates, the percentage of Arabs in Israel increased from 13% in the early 1970s to the current 21% (Muslims, Christians, Druze, and others).

However, by 2019, the fertility rate of Jews surpassed that of Arabs. In Israel and the Israeli-controlled parts of the West Bank (Area C), the ratio was 3.05 to 3.04. These figures do not include fertility rates of Arabs in the Gaza Strip and under the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, as they are not Israeli citizens. Simultaneously, there is a decline in the birth rate. Between 2018 and 2022, the average fertility rate among Jews dropped from 3.17 to 3.03 children per woman. Among Muslims and Christians, the decline was even greater – from 3.20 to 2.91 for Muslims, and from 2.06 to 1.68 for Christians. Among the Druze, there was a decline from 2.16 to 1.85.

Religion in Israel

The modern State of Israel defines itself as a Jewish, democratic, and secular state where religion is separated from the state. However, in practice, Israeli secularism is vastly different from secularism in Europe and USA. Although Judaism is not the official religion of Israel (the founders of Israel were secular Zionists), it is a religion with significant privileges over all others.

The five officially recognized religions in the state are Judaism, Islam, Christianity, the Druze religion, and the Bahá’í faith. They are divided into 14 recognized religious communities. Other religions can practice their rites but are not officially recognized and do not receive funding from the Israeli government. The vast majority of Israeli citizens are registered members of one of the religious communities.

A specificity of marriage in Israel is that marriages are conducted exclusively between members of the same religious community, and interfaith marriages are not allowed. However, the Israeli state recognizes marriages in which the spouses are of different faiths if conducted abroad. Therefore, many mixed marriages are conducted somewhere nearby, such as in Cyprus or Malta. In 2010, an amendment was made allowing two partners to marry in a civil ceremony if they do not belong to any religious community.

The Importance of Ultra-Orthodox Jews

For a certain significant part of the Jewish population, faith is the most important aspect of life. These are the ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews. The relationship between secular and Haredi Jews in Israel began to shape even before the establishment of the Israeli state between the Zionist movement and religious Jews (the political party Agudat Yisrael was founded in 1912). The leaders of the Zionist movement, secular Jews, were the main advocates for the establishment of the State of Israel, while the Haredi were opposed.

Secular Zionists believed that the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine was necessary to save Jews from persecution and pogroms in Europe. In contrast, the Haredi believed that the Jewish return to the promised ancient homeland (the Holy Land) should be facilitated by someone else, not them, and that the independent establishment of a Jewish state was against God’s will.

Over time, especially after the establishment of the State of Israel, an agreement was reached between the Zionists and Agudat Yisrael that religious Jews would have autonomy, or special status, within the Jewish state to continue studying Judaism. Some of the concessions they received include: 1) state funding for public services and living expenses (including studying in religious schools), 2) exemption from military service, 3) the authority of religious leaders (rabbis) in matters such as marriage, divorce, and related issues, 4) political representation in the Knesset and government through religious parties (e.g., United Torah Judaism, Shas, Mafdal – religious Zionism…).

Privileges of the Haredi

The privileges enjoyed by the Haredi bother many secular Jews. Many of them do not work and live at the expense of the state. The percentage of ultra-Orthodox men who work is 56%, while 79% of their women work. The percentage of working men is extremely low and creates an excessive burden on the Israeli economy.

One of the most important issues is military service. The Haredi are exempt from military duty, which negatively impacts Israel’s security. Due to the specific geography of Israel, which is long and narrow (20,072 square kilometers of internationally recognized territory without East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, and the West Bank), Israelis cannot afford for the enemy to penetrate deeper into Israeli territory in the event of war. If this were to happen, major cities like Jerusalem, Ashdod, Tel Aviv, Beersheba, Petah Tikva, Haifa, and perhaps even the existence of Israel would be at risk.

To protect Israel and prevent the destruction of major urban areas, the primary prerequisite is a large army. Currently, Israeli troops have 170,000 professionals and 500,000 reservists with advanced military technologies (aircraft, drones, missile systems) that can operate at any time in neighboring states or against invading forces.

Huge Growth of the Haredi Population

Although the fertility rate in Israel has increased in favor of Jews compared to Israeli Arabs (3.05 : 3.04), which observers might interpret as a Jewish victory, when looking at the structure of newborns, the advantage is questionable. Haredi women have a significantly higher fertility rate than secular Jewish women. The ratio is 6.64 children for ultra-religious women compared to 2.47 children for secular Jewish women. When the fertility rate of ultra-Orthodox women is excluded, the rate of 2.47 children for secular Jewish women is excellent compared to other developed countries. Women in France have 1.9 children, in the US 1.64, in the UK 1.56, and in Italy only 1.25 children. To maintain the population at the same level, fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is required. This is a problem for the developed Western world.

In recent decades, the high fertility of the relatively small ultra-Orthodox Jewish community (up to 10%) did not pose a problem for Israel due to high fertility rates of secular Jews and mass return of Jews from around the world, especially from Europe (the so-called Aliyah process). However, this is changing recently. There is no longer mass immigration of Jews from Eastern Europe (the area of the former Soviet Union) to Israel.

Admittedly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted immigration from Ukraine and Russia. In 2022, about 60,000 people of Jewish descent arrived in Israel. The problem with these people is that many do not feel like Jews because many have only marginal Jewish ancestry. At the same time, many highly qualified Jews are leaving Israel for the US and other developed Western countries. Moreover, the fertility rate of secular Jews is declining, while that of the ultra-Orthodox is skyrocketing. In 2022, the Haredi population was around 1.28 million, compared to 750,000 in 2009. Haredi accounted for 13.3% of Israel’s population in 2022. Haredi children make up 19% of Israeli children under 14 and 24% of children under four.

Conscription of Haredi into the Army?

As the Israeli war in Gaza continues alongside the conflicts with Hezbollah, there are increasing calls within Israeli society for ultra-Orthodox Jews to be engaged in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Approximately 70% of Israelis support their conscription. Netanyahu’s government announced that the ruling coalition has not agreed on extending the military exemption for the Haredi, which expired on April 1st.

Consequently, the IDF began in early April sending conscription notices to yeshiva students (religious schools). About 63,000 of them could be mobilized. According to Israeli laws, every Israeli citizen who is “Jewish, Druze, or Circassian” must serve in the army at the age of 18. Men serve for about three years, and women for at least two years. Arabs, Muslims, and Christians are not required to serve. Neither are many who obtain exemptions for health and other reasons, and their numbers are increasing.

Every year, about 13,000 young men are exempted from military service, which is something the IDF can no longer afford due to constant military clashes with Palestinians and other enemies. Only about 1,200 Orthodox Jews serve in the military each year, which is less than 10%. One of the two chief rabbis in the country, Yitzhak Yosef, recently stated that the Haredi “will all move abroad” if forced to enlist in the army. His comment sparked criticism for encouraging Israelis to leave during a national crisis, and ridicule, as many secular Israelis would not mind the mass departure of the Haredi, according to Gilad Malach from the Israel Democracy Institute. Time will tell if the government will indeed begin conscripting the Haredi into the military. Netanyahu is under pressure from right-wing parties not to do so and instead to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Ultra-Orthodox Jews are the main proponents of creating new Israeli settlements.

An Uncertain Path to the Future

At the end of 2023, Israel’s population was 9.84 million, having grown by 1.86% in a year. By 2040, Israel is expected to have 12 million residents. By the end of this decade, the number of Haredi is projected to reach 16% of Israel’s population. According to some projections, Haredi will make up 20% of the total population by 2040, and by 2065, even one-third. By that year, every other Israeli child will be ultra-Orthodox.

The rise of extremely religious Jews leads to many challenges and opens up countless new questions. Despite the Haredi’s contribution to the Jewish demographic struggle against Palestinians, the predicted increase in the ultra-Orthodox population will burden Israel’s economy, society, and armed forces for several reasons. Haredi are the primary recipients of social assistance and scholarships and do not significantly contribute to the economy. The increasing population will result in higher expenditures from the state budget, raising the question of whether the budget can sustain it, as Israel is not the US or Germany with vast resources. Liberal Jews pay taxes and other contributions, which mostly support the ultra-Orthodox Jews. This contributes to discord.

Even if the economy is excluded, the growing number of religious Jews will spur internal conflict with liberal Jews, whose numbers are declining but are still the main protectors of Israel, as they defend the state with weapons against many real and potential enemies. If the Haredi remain exempt from military duty, it will have a very negative impact on the Israeli military units.

Given that fewer and fewer Israeli youth are serving in the military lately (69% of boys and 59% of girls), plus the exempt ultra-religious population, it is likely that the IDF will have to reform. The Israeli army would probably have to transition entirely to a professional composition as reservists are decreasing. This would negatively affect the capabilities of Israeli units in the West Bank and other locations. If the government decided to conscript a large professional army, it would require even more financial resources from the budget.

Cultural Clashes – Liberalism and Religious Judaism

Sooner or later, a cultural and civilizational clash will occur between liberals and ultra-religious Jews. Haredi live a very religious lifestyle (14%) dominated by peaceful, ascetic, and family-oriented life dedicated to God and prayer, without the internet, mobile phones, and secular educational content. The goal of ultra-Orthodox Jews is to pray for the redemption of sins to be ready to welcome the Messiah, who will establish God’s kingdom on Earth.

On the other hand, liberal Jews (45%) live a Western lifestyle with all its advantages and disadvantages. They exhibit entrepreneurial spirit and sustainable business, founding successful startup companies and using high technology (which accounts for 18% of national GDP). Similarly, liberal Jews indulge in the vices of the modern world, such as drugs, alcohol, nicotine, prostitution, gambling, and other criminal activities. Besides these two extremes, there are two moderate groups. Specifically, 25% of Jews live a traditional, and 16% (moderately) religious lifestyle.

Given the rapid growth of the ultra-Orthodox Jews, Israel will soon have to find a solution to deal with this economic, military, and social phenomenon and challenge. If this burning issue is not addressed correctly, it can undoubtedly lead to the internal collapse of the State of Israel. The Haredi population may be a factor that, more than the threat of Palestinian terrorism, Arab states, or Iran, could harm Israel and turn it into a dysfunctional state that could be an easy prey for enemies.

However, every sword has two edges. In a scenario where ultra-Orthodox Jews somewhat change their lifestyle and limitedly accept integration into the rest of Israeli society, they can undoubtedly contribute to Israel’s development. After all, many of them are religious Zionists. This will most likely have to happen because no country can endure a third of its population living on social welfare programs and a minority working for the majority (92% of taxes in the Israeli state budget are paid by 25% of the population) even if it is for lofty religious purposes.