Trump And Musk Brawl: Geopolitical Repercussions – OpEd

Hollywood could not have produced a more riveting movie playing out to audiences in the United States and all around the world to anyone having a handphone. 

Just a few days after praising Elon Musk as “one of the greatest business leaders and innovators the world has ever produced” with what he described as a leading role in the “most sweeping and consequential government reform effort in generations”, President Donald Trump is now engaged in a no holds barred fight with his “First Buddy”.

Although the battle field is the U.S. and “the big beautiful bill” that they are in conflict over, it has rapidly degenerated into a public brawl between what many see as the two most powerful and richest men in the world. It is a fight that is unprecedented for its personal below the belt attacks, financial threats and allegations of misconduct and impropriety.

The Stakes in Musk Vs Trump 

American analysts following this feud are assessing it in terms of the domestic impact of the largest spending bill in American history. The “big and beautiful” federal spending proposal is estimated to add a possible U.S$2.4 trillion to America’s debt over the next decade according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. 

Musk has described the bill  as “a disgusting abomination”,  and as “massive, outrageous and pork-filled” and warned of its negative impact on America’s debt burden and the lives of ordinary Americans. Trump, on the other hand, sees the bill as improving ”the fiscal trajectory of the United States” and unleashing “an era of unprecedented economic growth”. He has also characterized it as arguably ”the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!” 

“Myth, hoax, grotesque, immoral” are some of the descriptions thrown by the Democrats and Republicans at each other’s position on the bill as well as the protagonists. They will not be the last words hurled in this battle and its impact on the economic future and well being of the U.S. 

Geopolitical Ramifications Of The Fallout 

Elsewhere in the world, the fallout effects in the relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk are also receiving special attention given the significant influence that the two leaders command in politics and business.

Here’s a breakdown of potential fallout effects on global geopolitics 

• Impact on U.S. Tech Policy

Musk’s involvement, particularly as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established to streamline bureaucracy and shift national technological policy, now appears to have ended. The feud, transforming a personal clash into a geopolitical catalyst, will accelerate tech decoupling away from the U.S. While immediate crises may not arise, allies and adversaries will recalibrate strategies to navigate this new instability.

• Economic Instability and Trade Wars

Trump’s latest tariff and protectionist policy measures have already sparked resistance in countries around the world. Musk’s opposition to Trump’s recent tax and spending bill, which impacts the electric vehicle industry, suggests a potential for continued internal conflict that could translate into unpredictable economic policies with global repercussions.

• Shifting Political Alliances and Funding

Musk’s significant financial contributions to Trump and Republican candidates in the past indicate a volatile landscape for political funding and influence. This internal political shifting could impact the U.S’s standing and reliability as a global partner.

• Soft Power and International Perception

The public spectacle of the Trump-Musk fallout has added considerably to the perception of unpredictability and internal discord within the U.S. This is eroding trust among allies and the U.S’s soft power and hegemonic position globally.

• NATO and European Relations

The Trump administration questioning of NATO’s value and Trump’s transactional approach to alliances have strained relations with European allies. The internal U.S. political discord, amplified by the Trump-Musk feud, has further introduced uncertainty to these alliances in the defence and security areas. Both Trump’s and Musk’s interventions are pushing European nations to seek greater self-reliance in foreign policy.

• Blurring Lines between Corporate and State Authority

Musk’s intervention in U.S. policy decisions highlights a growing shift in the balance of power between government and corporations. The fallout could affect the ability of private entities to shape national and international policy.

• Influence of Social Media Platforms

The public nature of their dispute, largely conducted on X (formerly Twitter) and Truth Social and hugely amplified by mainstream media, underscores the increasing role of social media platforms as arenas for geopolitical discourse. This can lead to rapid shifts in sentiment and policy, with potential for unintended consequences.

What is clear is that the Trump-Musk fallout is more than just a personal dispute or one with consequences for only American domestic policy. Although a highly visible manifestation of political and economic tensions within the U.S., given the global reach of both individuals and American role in the world, the reverberations are likely to contribute to more unpredictable and potentially volatile global geopolitical dynamics.

The Longer Term Impact

Presently, Musk is at the receiving end of a demonizing campaign by Trump and his Republican colleagues which shows little sign of abating or reconciliation, although this is being urged by a small number of Musk’s Republican supporters.

Meantime he has incurred a significant financial loss with his personal net worth plummeting by an estimated $34 billion mainly due to the fall in Tesla’s share price. Despite this massive decline, Musk remains the world’s wealthiest individual with a fortune estimated at $334.5 billion according to Bloomberg.

In response he has called for a new U.S. party targeting the “80% in the middle”. Should this development take place, it could fracture conservative movements and further weaken U.S. foreign policy cohesion. However, this is highly unlikely to happen given the record of third parties in America.

For now, this is Musk’s consolation shared with his supporters:

“Trump has 3.5 years left as president,” Musk wrote on X, “but I will be around for 40-plus years.”