Svalbard: Another Flashpoint Of Arctic Tensions – Analysis

Is Svalbard becoming a geopolitical flashpoint in the High North? Trends unfolding in the Arctic indicate a potential conflict scenario involving Russia and China, adding to the region’s tensions. 

The latest incident concerns Norway’s decision to restrict the sale of the last privately owned land in Svalbard, ostensibly to prevent its acquisition by China. On July 1, the Norwegian government declared that the sale of property in Søre Fagerfjord, located in south-west Svalbard, now requires state approval under the National Security Act. This measure was taken due to fears that the sale to certain parties could threaten national security interests. The property owner had expressed willingness to sell to buyers potentially challenging Norwegian sovereignty in the region. However, legal experts have raised concerns over Norway’s decision.  

Per Kyllingstad, the attorney for the sellers, had indicated that there had been definite interest from Chinese buyers who have shown a sustained enthusiasm for the Arctic and Svalbard. He characterized the sale as a rare chance to purchase “the last private land in Svalbard, and possibly the last private land in the world’s high Arctic.” 

Legal experts are arguing that the Norwegian government’s decision conflicts with the Svalbard Treaty. The treaty, signed in 1920, grants Norway sovereignty over the Svalbard archipelago but also ensures that all signatory countries have equal access and rights to engage in commercial activities. The Svalbard Treaty has been signed by 46 countries, including China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea.

The Norwegian government firmly maintains that its decision aligns with the Svalbard Treaty. Attorney General Fredrik Sejersted emphasizes that the state’s actions are within the legal framework established by the treaty. He notes that Article 7 does not apply to this situation. The new regulations specifically target the company and its current owners, requiring them to notify and obtain government approval before entering into negotiations or completing any sales.

An Arctic expert Andreas Østhagen points out that the fear of China might be a questionable reason for the Norwegian government to spend 350 million EUR on the last private property on Svalbard. However, he acknowledges that China has a clear interest in the region. Traditionally, Norway’s approach to Svalbard in terms of foreign and security policy has been to maintain a low profile, avoiding unnecessary attention. The worry is that increased discussions about Svalbard with other nations could lead to more misunderstandings and complications.

Why Russia Matters? 

Located between Norway and the North Pole, Svalbard is under Norwegian sovereignty. Its unique international status allows citizens from various countries certain freedoms, and Russia has maintained a significant presence there for years with its foothold. Latest reports say that the Russian state-owned company Arktikugol has plans to establish an Arctic research station in Pyramiden in partnership with BRICS nations, endorsed by Russian officials. This project was announced shortly after Norway designated the University Centre of Svalbard (UNIS) as the sole institution authorized to offer higher education on the archipelago.

At a working group session on oceanic and polar research in Murmansk, Russia emphasized the importance of political cooperation among BRICS nations for the Svalbard science centre project. Moscow plans to develop an international science complex in Pyramiden with China, India, Iran, and the UAE—BRICS nations considered ‘friendly states’ by Russia. This follows Russia’s reclassification of Norway from ‘unfriendly’ to ‘very unfriendly’ last August. Under the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, Russia can exploit the archipelago’s resources. With dwindling coal reserves in Barentsburg, Russia is focusing on academic projects to maintain its strategic position, challenging Norway’s University Centre in Longyearbyen and the global scientific community in Ny-Ålesund.

The Murmansk Marine Biological Institute (MMBI) is key in establishing the new science centre in Pyramiden. Denis Moiseev, MMBI’s deputy science director, expects the centre to open this year. MMBI has partnered with China’s Polar Research Institute for joint Arctic expeditions. Russia’s plan includes a central science hub in Pyramiden and branches in Grumant, Coles Bay, and Barentsburg, covering ethno-humanities, cultural-historical studies, palaeography, and medical biology. A consortium of allied research and educational institutions will also be created. Moiseev noted the BRICS centre will be comparable to Norway’s UNIS.

Meanwhile Norway emphasized the need for stable governance and national control over Svalbard, stressing a consistent management approach. In response, Russia announced its plans in Svalbard, leveraging its rights under the 1920 Svalbard Treaty.  To counter Russia’s influence, Norway proposed creating a Svalbard Science Office to enhance research oversight, coordinate activities, and liaise with the international research community, ensuring Norway’s control over research development in Svalbard.

While President Putin emphasized the Arctic’s strategic importance, citing its untapped mineral resources as crucial for Russia’s growth, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister warned Norway against reducing Russian rights in Svalbard, escalating geopolitical tensions. 

Over years, Arctic politics has shifted from cooperation to confrontation. During the Cold War, Norway and the Soviet Union balanced tensions with scientific cooperation. Since the early 2000s, increased Arctic interest, especially from Russia, has focused on economic development and climate research, with Russia boosting its military presence.

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Arctic security tensions rose, further escalated by the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia’s closer ties with China have bolstered Beijing’s ‘near-Arctic’ claims, challenging other Arctic states. Against this backdrop, experts emphasized the need for careful monitoring by European High North countries, NATO, and the U.S. due to growing geopolitical tensions.

Svalbard, near Russia’s Northern Fleet on the Kola Peninsula, exemplifies the emerging tensions. Its rich fish stocks, mineral deposits, and increased accessibility due to melting ice make it a focal point. Despite misconceptions, Norway retains full sovereignty over Svalbard under the Svalbard Treaty, though debates persist over treaty adherence, with Russian complaints about restricted helicopter use, environmental regulations, and military-use satellite stations.

Norway established a Svalbard Science Office to manage research, coordinate activities, and liaise with the international research community even as Russia is expanding academic activities and fostering partnerships with BRICS nations and other ‘friendly’ countries. Tensions have increased, with Russia’s warning Norway over Svalbard’s management, framing it as a sovereignty issue similar to Ukraine.

Arctic geopolitics gets complicated with new issues like Svalbard. Norway may need to collaborate with allies to clarify Svalbard’s legal and political status and address misconceptions about NATO’s security guarantees. This approach can help manage the evolving Arctic security landscape and prevent distorted narratives. 

Russian interest in Arctic resources surged since its 2007 flag-planting at the North Pole, making the Arctic a critical political arena with significant potential for fossil fuels. Pyramiden, a coal mining town in Svalbard, symbolizes Soviet ideals with the northernmost statue of Lenin. Despite minimal coal output, Russia’s presence in Pyramiden has always been politically motivated. After the Cold War, Pyramiden’s population declined, but Russia maintained its presence. The creation of the Svalbard Committee in 2019 by President Putin’s aides indicated Russia’s continued interest. Activities like water and sediment sampling help legitimize its Arctic presence.

Svalbard has two active coal mines. Norway’s Mine No. 7 extended operations to 2025 due to the energy crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The other mine, near Barentsburg, reflects Russia’s effort to maintain its presence despite dwindling reserves. Observers suggest Russia’s scientific and economic activities in Svalbard are pretexts for geopolitical or military aims. The Norwegian Intelligence Service has warned about Russia’s nuclear capabilities in the Arctic, viewing Western military activity as a threat.

The Arctic Council, which facilitated Arctic cooperation, suspended activities after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ending collaboration. Post-invasion, natural resources have gained political importance due to sanctions and energy scarcity. An Arctic presence is crucial for Russia to access these resources. Svalbard’s proximity to the Kola Peninsula and its naval and nuclear assets makes it strategically important for Russia’s bastion strategy. Control of Svalbard is essential for Moscow’s interests, but Norway and its allies are unlikely to let Russia pursue its ambitions unchallenged, making Svalbard a potential hotspot for renewed geopolitical contestation.