Riding The Trump Wave: India’s Gamble With A Tumultuous Ally – Analysis
By Dr. Jagmeet Bawa and Dr. Sandeep Singh
The world has taken notice of Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election. The presidential elections in the United States have a significant impact on regional security, economic policy, and international diplomacy due to its status as a global superpower.
India, one of the United States’ closest strategic allies, also eagerly anticipated this outcome, and many Indians see Trump’s comeback as a chance for deeper bilateral relations and strategic advantages. But there are also serious potential drawbacks, which puts India in a difficult balancing position. Will India face unexpected difficulties under Trump’s leadership, or could it be a game changer? In order to understand the implications of Donald Trump for India, it is essential to analyze his objectives for America and contextualize India, a significant player in US strategy, albeit not as crucial as some in India may assume, within that framework.
The Unprecedented Comeback: Trump’s 2024 Win and Cleveland’s Legacy Reimagined
Donald Trump’s extraordinary reascendancy to the U.S. presidency in 2024 draws historical comparisons to Grover Cleveland, the sole president prior to Trump to hold non-consecutive terms. Cleveland, who held office from 1885 to 1889 and again from 1893 to 1897, epitomized political resilience by losing his re-election campaign yet successfully reclaiming his position through a concerted and strategic resurgence.
Similar to Cleveland, Trump utilized his time away from the White House to sustain public prominence, openly criticizing the policies of his successor and echoing voter dissatisfaction. Cleveland’s relentless opposition to the elevated tariffs enacted by President Benjamin Harrison capitalized on economic discontent, which ultimately catalyzed his political resurgence. This strategy reflects Trump’s 2024 campaign, in which he leveraged prevalent dissatisfaction arising from economic instability, including inflation and perceived policy shortcomings under President Joe Biden.
Trump’s resurgence can be ascribed to a multitude of factors that parallel Cleveland’s historical context while also being distinctly modern. His triumph was propelled by a confluence of anti-incumbency sentiment, substantial backing in rural America, strategic augmentation of his minority constituency, and his capacity to sustain credibility among voters as an unvarnished, genuine political figure. Cleveland opposed federal expenditure initiatives that he believed undermined American resilience, whereas Trump’s policies focused on pledges of economic revitalization and national pride, appealing to a substantial segment of the electorate, particularly those who felt marginalized by the Democrats.
Furthermore, Trump’s coalition-building tactics resembled those of Cleveland’s political operatives, who maintained his visibility despite challenges. Trump also gained from a demographic transformation, garnering heightened support from Latino and Black voters while solidifying allegiance among rural, working-class whites. Kamala Harris’s campaign, by contrast, faced challenges in addressing economic criticisms and reconciling internal contradictions within the Democratic platform. Concerns regarding perceived hypocrisy in foreign policy positions and the inability to mobilize essential voter demographics, particularly women, further highlighted Trump’s advantage. Trump’s unrepentant demeanor, despite his controversial policies, starkly contrasted with the perceived inconsistency of the Democrats, facilitating a historic and uncommon political resurgence.
Trump’s Transactional Blueprint for America’s Objectives and Its Impact on U.S.-India Relations
Donald Trump’s goals for America highlight a focus on transactions and trade, characterized by economic nationalism and protectionist policies. His focus encompasses the implementation of comprehensive tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances, emphasizing the importance of reciprocal agreements, and confronting adversaries such as China with substantial tariffs, potentially reaching 60% or higher. Trump appears to focus on immediate outcomes rather than fostering enduring partnerships or engaging in multilateral agreements, as evidenced by his previous actions and the strategy he may adopt in a potential second term (Sharma, 2024).
In the context of India, it is probable that Trump’s strategy would be characterized by a transactional nature. He would assess India’s value through measurable advantages for the U.S., like job creation or heightened exports, instead of focusing on the overarching objective of countering China or fostering enduring strategic relationships. India’s role as a significant ally in countering China is recognized; however, Trump’s interactions with India are expected to prioritize trade balance and the protection of U.S. interests. During his previous term, he implemented tariffs on Indian goods and demonstrated hesitance to prioritize stronger relations without evident mutual advantages. Furthermore, the human rights issues raised by the Democrats may not be as significant during Trump’s administration, which could reduce certain bilateral tensions while underscoring a ‘quid pro quo’ approach.
It can be said that the policy of Trump 2.0 regarding India is expected to be characterized by a distinct approach focused on transactional relationships. The institutional strength of the India-US relationship guarantees its ongoing existence, yet the extent and character of its development will depend on Trump’s priorities. Should the relationship correspond with his ‘America First’ agenda and yield tangible advantages, it could experience instances of collaboration. Under Trump’s extractive framework, India is likely to encounter pressures such as tariffs and demands for reciprocal benefits. Strategic collaboration remains a possibility, particularly in countering China’s influence. However, India needs to approach Trump’s demand-driven strategy with caution to sustain and strengthen the bilateral partnership while safeguarding its wider strategic and economic interests.
Potential Benefits for India
Despite the complexities, Trump’s presidency holds a promising horizon for India-U.S. relations, given the alignment on certain strategic priorities and Trump’s public admiration for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
1. Strengthening the Strategic Partnership
Trump’s presidency may signify a more robust U.S.-India strategic alliance, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. His administration is expected to strengthen India’s position as a counterbalance to China. This alignment was evident during Trump’s first term, characterized by the initiation of a strong Indo-Pacific strategy with India as a central ally. This strategy is crucial for India, which has been entangled in territorial and economic disputes with China, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayas. India’s role in counterbalancing China’s influence is anticipated to be pivotal to U.S. policy, likely enhancing collaboration within frameworks such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with Japan and Australia.
2. Enhanced Defense and Security Ties
During the Trump administration, defense cooperation may achieve new milestones. Trump’s preference for high-value defense agreements may facilitate India’s acquisition of advanced U.S. technologies, thereby aiding the modernization of its defense infrastructure. Joint military exercises may increase in scale and frequency, thereby improving India’s preparedness and promoting interoperability between Indian and U.S. forces. A renewed emphasis on defense partnerships may enhance India’s indigenous defense production capabilities via technology transfers and joint ventures, similar to agreements established during Trump’s prior term, including the sale of advanced helicopters and other defense equipment.
3. Revitalized Trade Relations
Trump’s transactional trade approach could be advantageous for India if bilateral trade negotiations are initiated between the two nations. India has encountered trade tensions with the U.S. regarding tariffs; however, Trump’s emphasis on individual trade agreements may enable India to obtain more favorable conditions, particularly in the sectors of technology, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. This strategy may facilitate the expansion of markets for India’s agricultural products, enhancing exports and supporting the Indian economy. The balance will be crucial, as the U.S. may pursue concessions in specific sectors.
4. Enhanced Energy and Technology Cooperation
Trump’s pro-energy policies are expected to enhance collaboration in the energy sector, allowing India to increase its LNG imports and thereby mitigate its energy deficit. The administration may promote investment in India’s expanding technology sector, particularly in essential domains such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure. These collaborations align with India’s objectives of technological advancement and digital transformation.
5. Counterterrorism and Security Cooperation
The Trump administration’s strong position on counterterrorism may benefit India, which has faced challenges related to cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan. Trump’s support could intensify pressure on Pakistan to confront terrorist organizations operating within its territory. Improved intelligence-sharing between the two nations may bolster India’s capacity to address regional security challenges, particularly regarding threats from groups active in Kashmir.
6. Improved Diaspora Relations
Trump’s acknowledgment of the contributions made by the Indian-American community may enhance relations between the two countries. Relaxing H-1B visa restrictions could enable the entry of skilled Indian professionals into the U.S., thereby increasing remittances to India. Trump’s favorable stance towards the Indian community has garnered significant support in India, and improved relations with the diaspora are expected to bolster India’s soft power in the United States.
7. Support for Religious Minorities in South Asia
In recent declarations, Trump has expressed his backing for Hindu minorities encountering difficulties in Bangladesh, a matter that has struck a chord with numerous individuals in India. Should his administration choose to extend support for the protection of religious minorities, it could effectively address the concerns of Hindus and other minority groups in the neighboring regions of India, thereby reflecting a cohesive commitment to the principle of religious freedom.
Potential Challenges for India
While the prospects appear promising, the reemergence of Trump may also introduce considerable obstacles. His frequently erratic and transactional approach to diplomacy, coupled with his “America First” doctrine, may not consistently correspond with India’s strategic objectives.
1. Paroxysm in Foreign Policy
Trump’s approach to foreign policy can be very transactional, frequently putting immediate financial gain ahead of long-term strategic partnerships. His snap decisions have left allies reeling, as evidenced by the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan. Such uncertainty could make long-term strategic objectives, such as attempts to balance China and participate positively in the Quad, more difficult for India, which prioritizes stability in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia.
2. Strained Trade Relations
Trump’s protectionist policies may result in trade friction. Critiques of trade imbalances with partners, such as India, may lead to heightened tariffs or more stringent regulations. Stricter trade policies may present significant risks to India’s IT and pharmaceutical sectors, which depend heavily on U.S. markets, potentially restricting market access and impacting economic growth.
3. Restrictive Immigration Policies
Trump has praised Indian contributions to the United States; however, his position on immigration, particularly regarding H-1B visas, poses a potential issue. The enforcement of stricter regulations on work visas may negatively impact the Indian workforce in the United States, influencing remittances and India’s expanding influence via its diaspora. Policies designed to limit immigration may hinder opportunities for Indian professionals and students.
4. Reduced U.S. Engagement in South Asia
A Trump administration prioritizing a reduction in U.S. engagement in global conflicts may create a power vacuum in South Asia, which could advantage entities opposed to Indian interests. This encompasses Pakistan, where diminished U.S. influence may encourage cross-border terrorism. India prioritizes regional stability, and a reduced U.S. presence may intensify security challenges in Afghanistan and surrounding areas.
5. Environmental and Climate Concerns
Trump’s prior withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his pronounced focus on fossil fuels raise significant concerns for India, a nation susceptible to the effects of climate change. A diminished U.S. commitment to global climate initiatives may jeopardize collective efforts to address climate issues, thereby impacting India’s ambitious goals for renewable energy and environmental sustainability.
6. Increased U.S.-China Tensions
Trump’s assertive approach toward China could heighten regional tensions, potentially compelling India to adopt a clear position. India’s cautious approach towards China is influenced by the potential destabilization of the region due to an intensified U.S.-China rivalry, which could affect trade owing to India’s economic and strategic interdependence with China.
Conclusion
India faces both opportunities and challenges as a result of Trump’s potential comeback to the presidency. Even though his policies might help India fight China, improve defense cooperation, and build relationships with the Indian diaspora, his transactional, trade-centric style and propensity for abrupt changes could strain the two countries’ relationship. India must carefully manage this relationship, striking a balance between the real advantages of a U.S.-India partnership led by a transactional leader and its strategic autonomy.
The ability of Trump’s administration to successfully combine its deal-driven, pragmatic approach with the stability required for a robust, long-term U.S.-India alliance will ultimately determine whether his presidency is a “game changer” or a diplomatic challenge for India. To ensure that it can reap the rewards of this partnership while defending its national interests, India’s diplomatic flexibility will be crucial.
About the authors:
- Prof. Jagmeet Bawa, Professor and Head, Department of Political Science, Central university of Himachal Pradesh, Dharamshala, India.
- Dr. Sandeep Singh, Assistant Professor, Department of South and Centre Asian Studies, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India.