Why Trump Will Not Win The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize – OpEd

Shortly now, if not already taking place, the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize selection committee will be examining nominations for this year’s winner. The result of this coveted and highly sought after prize is expected to be announced in early October.

This year’s winner will carry special significance in view of the possible ending of the two bloodiest wars waged in recent times – that in Gaza and Ukraine. 

Should even a temporary truce if not a definitive and sustainable peace settlement be negotiated to stop the casualties and deaths in these two killing fields – with their threat of expansion beyond their current territories and the possibility of nuclear weapons being brought into the fray – a contender if not the favourite to win the prize is US President, Donald Trump. This is due to his undeniable leading role in bringing together the key combatants, and his pressure on them to arrive at whatever peace agreement is finally put in place – even if the agreement may be controversial and may not not last very long.

According to the Norwegian Nobel Institute over 300 individuals and organizations have been nominated for this year’s prize. By convention, the identities of nominees are not publicly announced. However, nominating bodies such as academic organizations, scientists, lawmakers and former laureates are permitted to disclose their submissions. 

Nominations are selected according to their achievement in relation to the following concerns:

1. Promote Peace Agreements: Facilitate or broker significant peace agreements between conflicting parties. 

2. Reduce International Tensions: Work towards reducing tensions and potential conflicts between nations. This could involve diplomatic efforts, treaties, or other forms of negotiation.

3. Humanitarian Efforts: Lead or support large-scale humanitarian efforts that alleviate suffering and promote peace. This could include addressing issues like poverty, disease, and displacement.

4. Disarmament: Advocate for and achiev significant progress in global disarmament, particularly in the reduction of nuclear weapons.

5. Promote Democracy and Human Rights: Support and promote democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in regions where these are under threat.

6. Environmental Peacebuilding: Engage in efforts that link environmental sustainability with peacebuilding, as environmental issues can be a source of conflict.

7. Public Advocacy: Use public platforms to advocate for peace and non-violence, influencing public opinion and policy.

Trump’s supporters will argue that he is the most outstanding leader working to end the current military conflicts in both war torn regions; and that his work for peace surpasses that of Pope Francis, an early favourite in part owing to the western media coverage on his ailing health condition; and another early favorite in former North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg whose nomination by his fellow Norwegian colleagues in Norway’s parliament is more than disquieting and shocking as he has been a consistent war hawk in Europe and elsewhere in the world including the Asia Pacific region.

For now, Trump has one nomination from US Republican congressman Darrell Issa who said on social media platform X  that he had nominated Trump as “no one deserves it more”. According to Issa’s office, the nomination was based on Trump’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. However, the nomination was submitted after the official deadline and may not be accepted. 

What Influences The Peace Prize Award

No one should have any doubt that the peace prize selection is heavily and decisively influenced by the ideological positioning of the Norwegian government. 

Winners have included the European Union (EU) in 2012 whose selection was unprecedented, unexpected and undeserving. They have also included US president, Barack Obama, who was awarded the prize just months into his presidency with the committee citing his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”.

Obama subsequently, with other NATO member countries, organised the overthrow of Muammar Gadaffi’s legitimate Libyan government and was instrumental in enhancing US military commitment to Afghanistan as well as launching numerous airstrikes in Syria and Yemen that killed close to 4,000 people. The secretary of the Norwegian Committee has subsequently indicated that the award to Obama was a mistake whilst Obama himself in a television programme has confessed that he did not know why he received the award.

Why Trump Will Not Win This Year’s Award

Likely to be against awarding the prize to Trump is the Norwegian government, especially if the peace agreement results in Russia taking control of the Crimean region and Ukraine is unable to become a NATO member. The selection committee itself is appointed by the Norwegian parliament and is supposed to be independent although with members representing the various political parties of Norway, the claim of independence and neutrality appears baseless and has little merit. 

As a NATO member country and closely aligned with the EU on foreign policy issues, Norway has not only been committed to supporting President V. Zelensky but it has also provided Ukraine with substantial military and financial assistance, especially since following Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine in 2022. 

Trump has argued that Zelensky is gambling with World War III but this possible scenario appears lost to the Norwegian government and other NATO countries determined to win the peace through more war – apparently however long the war needs to be continued with NATO and EU support to ensure Putin’s and Russia’s capitulation – rather than through Trump’s transactional diplomacy aimed at stopping the massive losses in lives and infrastructure. Trump’s concern – “I want the bloodshed to stop” is clearly not a priority or concern of EU and NATO since they don’t have their boots on the ground in what the Russians regard as a proxy war instigated by NATO.

A Surprise Winner?

Should the prize committee be looking out for a global political figure to surprise the world for this year’s award, they may want to consider China’s president, Xi Jinping, whose contribution to global security and development especially through his Belt and Road Initiative and leadership role in the BRICS grouping now comprising 55 per cent of the world’s population and 46% of global GDP meets most, if not all, of the selection criteria publicly listed for the award.