Navigating Political Crisis And Conflict In Mozambique: Quad’s Interest And Strategy – Analysis

By Raghvendra Kumar

Introduction: A Brief History of Conflict in Mozambique

(FPRI) — The situation in Mozambique remains tense amidst an ongoing political crisis following last October’s contested election results. For months, violence and unrest have escalated as opposition-led protests challenge the outcome, which saw the incumbent FRELIMO party secure 65 percent of the vote. Despite allegations of electoral fraud by major opposition parties, the Constitutional Council, Mozambique’s highest court, upheld the results. The swearing-in of the president and members of parliament last week—reaffirming FRELIMO’s decades-long dominance in a multi-party democracy—was boycotted by major opposition parties. This development has heightened fears of further violence in a country already shaken by weeks of deadly protests and reignited debates about its fragile governance and political stability.

With its unique maritime geography, strategic location, dynamic economy, and natural resource wealth, Mozambique has emerged as a prominent investment destination in Southern Africa. Strategically positioned along the Mozambique Channel—a critical global maritime route—it is a vital corridor for transporting coal, oil, and other minerals. This positioning has become even more significant in light of ongoing conflicts and attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea, making it strategically important for neighboring and landlocked African countries, as well as for foreign powers. The discovery of vast natural gas reserves, estimated at 180 trillion cubic feet (with 75 trillion cubic feet extractable in Area 1 alone), has significantly enhanced Mozambique’s long-term economic prospects. By 2030, the country is projected to become one of the world’s leading natural gas and coal producers, solidifying its position as a key player in the global resource market. In addition, Mozambique’s abundant resources, including iron ore, gold, gemstones, and mineral tantalite, have attracted substantial interest from foreign investors eager to advance resource development initiatives.

However, despite Mozambique’s significant economic potential, the evolving security situation in the country has profoundly impacted the interests of the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” (Quad)—a diplomatic partnership between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. The deteriorating security environment, marked by violent political crises and rising acts of terrorism, poses serious challenges to the substantial investments made by Quad members in Mozambique, necessitating a strategic response to foster regional stability. The country’s history of conflict, rooted in post-colonial power struggles, economic distress, and grievances over the unequal distribution of resource revenues, continues to undermine its stability. The adverse effects of climate change and undemocratic electoral practices further exacerbate these issues, creating space for non-state actors to shift the narrative from growth and development to securitization.

Since 2017, the violent insurgency led by the Islamic State in Mozambique (ISIS-M) has remained active in several parts of the northern province of Cabo Delgado, destabilizing the country and hindering its domestic economy. Additionally, the recent escalation of political unrest following the contentious October 2024 elections has further aggravated the fragile security situation. This instability has significantly deterredforeign investments, particularly in the extractive industries, and has hampered the government’s ability to leverage its natural wealth for sustainable development. As a result, Mozambique remains a weak state, struggling to realize its full economic potential amidst ongoing turmoil. Against this backdrop, this essay explores how the Quad, with its shared Indo-Pacific vision and increasing focus on Africa, can strategically engage with Mozambique to address its political instability, economic challenges, and security threats. By examining opportunities for collaboration, capacity-building, and investment, the essay aims to contribute to the broader discourse on the Quad’s role in fostering stability and development in resource-rich yet conflict-prone regions like Mozambique.

Political and Security Situation in Mozambique

Mozambique’s fragmentation and fault lines are deeply rooted in its post-colonial history. After gaining independence from Portugal in 1975, following a decade-long armed anti-colonial resistance movement led by FRELIMO (Frente de Libertação de Moçambique or Mozambique Liberation Front), the country entered a new phase of turmoil. Post-independence, an armed conflict erupted between FRELIMO and RENAMO (Mozambican National Resistance), a political-military hybrid organization that later became the main opposition party. This violent power struggle lasted 16 years and claimed over a million lives, displacing millions more and compounding the country’s challenges. The conflict officially ended in late 1992 with the signing of the Acordo Geral de Paz (General Peace Agreement or GPA). This agreement established a multi-party political system and marked the end of centralized economic planning.

However, Mozambique did not remain “pacified” for long. Even after the GPA, sporadic political violence persisted, including food price riots and political assassinations. The peace achieved was merely negative, as deep-seated structural fissures and fault lines began to resurface. Although the 16-year conflict formally concluded in 1992, its underlying issues were never fully resolved. Conflict re-emerged in 2017 with the rise of an Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado, led by Ahl al-Sunna wal-Jama‘a (ASWJ) —also known as al-Shabaab or ISIS-Mozambique. The insurgency began with an attack on Mocímboa da Praia in October 2017. Since then, the conflict has claimed over 4,000 lives and displaced approximately 800,000 people. While fundamentally different in origin and character from earlier conflicts, this insurgency is deeply rooted in structural inequality, poverty, oppression, marginalization, and deprivation caused by corrupt elites. Many citizens blame the discovery and mismanagement of valuable resources, particularly natural gas and rubies, for exacerbating the insurgency and fueling terrorism in the province.

The cessation of widespread hostilities in Mozambique was short-lived. The declaration of FRELIMO presidential candidate Daniel Chapo as the winner after securing a landslide majority in the October 2024 elections—continuing FRELIMO’s streak of winning every general election since the 1992 General Peace Agreement (GPA)—has reignited fears of renewed conflict. The main opposition leader, Venâncio Mondlane, has claimed the election was rigged and fraudulent, marking the end of the fragile political peace the country has experienced since 1992. Mozambique has been gripped by escalating, deadly political violence since the Oct. 9, 2024 presidential election results were challenged by voters. The country has experienced spiraling unrest, with widespread looting and vandalism met by heavy-handed coercion from security forces, resulting in hundreds of deaths. The president’s swearing-in on Jan. 15, 2025 has heightened tensions, and the risk of violent manifestations remains alarmingly high. Furthermore, the already fragile situation in northern Mozambique, particularly in Nampula and Cabo Delgado provinces, where violent extremism persists, adds to the convergence of crises. This combination of political instability and violent extremism could exacerbate security challenges, deepen the humanitarian crisis, and threaten international interests, including those of Quad member states.

Quad’s Interests at Stake

Mozambique’s extensive maritime profile, characterized by a long coastline, deep-water ports, fertile arable land, abundant fishing opportunities, and vast natural resource reserves, positions the country as a hub of investment potential. Geoeconomically, the Mozambique Channel, which borders the country, is distinguished by having the second-richest coral reef biodiversity in the world and serves as one of the most lucrative fishing grounds, generating approximately $2 billion annually from tuna fisheries alone. It is also becoming a rising destination for coastal tourism and diving. Moreover, the Mozambique Channel is critical to the global supply chain, with 30 percent of the world’s maritime traffic transiting this geostrategic corridor. Trillions of dollars’ worth of natural gas reserves have further heightened Mozambique’s significance in global energy systems. However, weak security architecture and fragile governance structures jeopardize these opportunities and threaten the interests of major global stakeholders, including Quad member states.

For the Quad members, Mozambique is strategically positioned within their shared vision for an open, inclusive, and resilient Indo-Pacific. The Quad’s commitment to strengthening the international order for the global good makes stability in Mozambique a critical concern. Mounting crises in adjacent regions, such as the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where Houthi-perpetrated attacks on international and commercial vessels have disrupted freedom of navigation, trade flows, and the safety of maritime personnel, further underscore the strategic significance of securing alternative maritime routes. The increased traffic flow through the southern tip of Africa highlights the criticality of the Mozambique Channel, as any disruption to this route could severely impact global commerce and stability. Therefore, strengthening governance institutions in Mozambique becomes paramount for regional and international security.

Recognizing Mozambique’s strategic importance for regional and global security, Quad members have made significant geoeconomic and geopolitical investments in the country. These investments aim to secure energy resources, expand trade ties, and foster African economic cooperation. The U.S. government provides over $812 million in annual assistance to Mozambique, improving healthcare, education, economic prosperity, and overall national development. The U.S. government has deeply invested in Mozambique, both geoeconomically and geopolitically. These investments reflect America’s strategic interests in securing energy resources, expanding trade ties, and fostering economic cooperation in Africa. The United States, through ExxonMobil, is heavily invested in Mozambique’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector. The U.S. Export-Import Bank has committed $4.7 billion to the Area 1 Mozambique LNG project led by TotalEnergies. In comparison, the Development Finance Corporation has extended $1.5 billion in sovereign risk insurance to ExxonMobil’s Area 4 Rovuma LNG project, representing the U.S. government’s most significant investments on the continent.

India’s ever-deepening economic, political, and security engagement with Mozambique is a testament to its deep-rooted ties and strategic priorities under New Delhi’s shared vision for the Indo-Pacific. Strategically located Mozambique is considered India’s extended maritime neighbor, being geographically closer to the west coast of India. India has made significant investments in Mozambique’s extractive energy resources, accounting for approximately 37 percent of India’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. It holds the most significant stake in Area 1 of the Rovuma gas field, with a 30 percent ownership and a commitment to invest $20 billion. Additionally, India has supported Mozambique’s development agenda and sustainability with around $890 million in concessional Lines of Credit (LoCs) for various projects. This reflects India’s high stakes and commitment, grounded in the principle of equity in development inherent in its maritime vision of SAGAR, which stands for Security and Growth for All in the Region.

Japan’s longstanding friendship with Mozambique is reflected in its deep-seated geoeconomic and geopolitical stakes in the broader region. Japan has invested heavily in the country’s extractive energy resources, especially in LNG development projects in Cabo Delgado province, where Japan’s Mitsui has a 20 percent stake in Area 1 of the Rovuma gas field, with an estimated $14 billion investment in LNG extraction and development. Over the past 20 years, Japan has invested approximately $1.6 billion in Mozambique, focusing on infrastructure, agribusiness, and natural resources. Key projects include the port of Nacala ($197.7 million) and the Maputo thermoelectric power plant ($125.1 million), with these two projects totaling $441.1 million. Japan’s broader contributions include $661.76 million in loans, $1.11 billion in grants, and $315.92 million in technical cooperation.

Australia supports Mining for Development in Mozambique and has invested heavily in the country’s mining sector. However, these investments are feeling the heat under the renewed political crisis. Two Australian firms have already decided to withdraw from operations in Mozambique. Australia’s South32, which is involved in aluminum smelting and holds a 63.7 percent stake in the Mozal aluminum smelter, has pulled out of its Mozambique operations amid civil unrest. Similarly, another Australian company invested in graphite mining, Syrah Resources, suspended operations at its flagship graphite mine in December, following disruptions caused by protests since September 2024. Syrah said in a statement, “Operating conditions in Mozambique are challenging with ongoing nationwide protests associated with general elections causing widespread disruptions throughout the country.”

Furthermore, as Mozambique has also become a hotspot for transnational organized crime, including maritime terrorism, piracy, and drug trafficking, often closely tied to corrupt elites and weak governance frameworks, decades of lawlessness have created fertile ground for these threats. The country’s ongoing political crisis risks spilling over into the maritime domain, further endangering global interests. This particularly concerns Quad member states, which have invested significantly in Mozambique’s extractive resource industries. The convergence of government instability and land-based crises with extremist activities could result in severe fallout in the Indian Ocean, threatening up to 30 per cent of global shipping traffic transiting the Mozambique Channel. Additionally, foreign entities operating in offshore gas reserves may be forced to extend force majeure again, halting operations and investments.

The potential for these crises to disrupt global commerce and investment is a compelling call to action for the Quad nations to prioritize stabilizing this critical region. Strong governance, combined with targeted interventions, will be essential to safeguarding the security of the Mozambique Channel, ensuring uninterrupted trade flows, and protecting both regional and global interests.

Conclusion: Quad’s Strategy for Securing Interests and Regional Stability

The primary objective of the Quad is to advance a holistic conception of security that prioritizes peace and prosperity through “shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.” Achieving this goal relies on fostering regional stability in the maritime domain and on land to promote and protect reliable and resilient supply chains crucial for the global good. In this context, the ongoing crisis in Mozambique presents complex and interlinked challenges that the Quad must address. The shared vision of the Indo-Pacific should integrate East Africa as a primary area of interest, emphasizing partnerships with key stakeholders in the region to resolve overlapping conflicts in Mozambique. These efforts should stabilize the country’s political landscape and conflict-affected areas, creating conditions conducive to long-term resilience and positive peace.

The insurgency in Mozambique’s northern province has disrupted the lives and livelihoods of millions. The recent political crisis further jeopardizes peace and stability, exacerbating longstanding divisions within Mozambican society and deepening local mistrust of government and security actors. The modest security gains made by regional forces against the ISIS-M insurgency are now at risk of being undone. The post-election political crisis also threatens to paralyze critical opportunities for recovery, reconciliation, and resilience. Despite providing independent assistance to East Africa on various occasions, the Quad lacks a unified institutional mechanism to address security threats in the wider Indo-Pacific. It has yet to integrate East Africa fully into its shared vision. This gap presents an opportunity to prioritize strategic collaboration with Mozambique as part of a broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

To address Mozambique’s challenges, the Quad should engage with regional stakeholders, such as the African Union and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), while collaborating with Mozambique’s government to mediate political tensions, promote peace-building initiatives, and strengthen governance. Enhancing security partnerships is essential, particularly through supporting regional maritime security operations involving East African and Indian Ocean Rim countries. This must include expanding counterterrorism cooperation to combat the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, addressing maritime piracy, and improving the capacity of Mozambique’s military, police, and intelligence institutions. Developing a unified political vision within a common Quad agenda is critical for achieving a long-term political solution in Mozambique. At the same time, the Quad should promote economic and social development to stabilize Mozambique’s economy and society. Encouraging FDI in Mozambique’s extractive sectors, emphasizing transparency and equitable resource distribution, is vital. Joint projects in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and climate adaptation can diversify the economy and foster inclusive growth. A consortium of Quad-based private sector actors should invest in primary areas of interest, creating local employment opportunities, particularly for marginalized communities, by strengthening institutions to provide basic services and respond to local needs reliably. This approach will reduce Mozambique’s dependence on extra-regional powers that benefit from conflict and instability.

Building climate-resilient infrastructure and enhancing disaster preparedness are essential to ensure Mozambique’s long-term stability and sustainable development. Local, national, and regional partnerships should focus on consolidating peace and security, promoting good governance, and expanding civic space. The Quad should also urge all political actors in Mozambique to maintain a peaceful disposition as the nation awaits the final election results from the Constitutional Council. Stability during this period is crucial to preserving hard-won security gains and fostering an environment for reconciliation and resilience. Assisting Mozambique in achieving positive peace, stable security, and sustainable development goals through collective efforts will reduce fragility and chart a path toward a stable and prosperous regional environment. Therefore, recovery, reconstruction, and socioeconomic development must remain central to the Quad’s engagement with Mozambique. The Quad can deepen its “shared vision” for the Indo-Pacific by prioritizing its responsibility to forge a strategic partnership with Mozambique.

• About the author: Raghvendra Kumar is a Non-Resident Fellow in FPRI’s Africa Program. He holds a Ph.D. and M.Phil. in African Studies from the University of Delhi, along with a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in Political Science from Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi. His expertise lies in Africa’s maritime security, the blue economy, and geoeconomic competition, particularly in Africa’s coastal and island states.
• Source: This article was published by FPRI