Trump’s Middle East Visit: A Calculated Power Play In The New Geopolitical Normal – Analysis

May 10, 2025May 10, 2025 Geopolitical Monitor 0 Comments

By Dr. Mohamed ELDoh

President Donald Trump’s planned visit to the Middle East from May 13 to 16 is far more than a symbolic tour—it is a deliberate power maneuver shaped by economic urgencies at home, global geopolitical flux, and the enduring centrality of Gulf states to US strategy in the region. While the visit’s formal itinerary may remain diplomatically vague, the underlying objectives reveal a carefully calibrated agenda: securing economic relief, reinforcing political optics, and tightening the US grip on its most reliable Gulf allies, namely Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia.

These three countries are not only pillars of regional stability but also serve as functional proxies for US power projection without the costs of direct military involvement. From energy leverage and financial liquidity to regional conflict mediation, each of these states offers unique assets that Trump is likely determined to harness. But in doing so, he must navigate a minefield of competing agendas, rising global multipolarity, and shifting loyalties, especially amid the growing influence of China and the complex role of Russia.

America First, Gulf Funded

Trump’s foremost concern remains domestic: he must return to DC brandishing tangible wins to validate his “America First” doctrine. With inflationary pressures mounting due to tariff policies, Trump is keen to showcase deals that funnel Gulf wealth into the US economy. This includes multi-billion-dollar investment commitments from Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. Unlike previous administrations that emphasized diplomatic nuance, Trump is less interested in long-term statecraft and more focused on the transactionality of foreign policy.

His apparent snub of Oman—likely due to Muscat’s reluctance to pledge massive investments—signals that access to the president is now gated by the cooperation value a certain nation can bring to the U.S. It also sends a message to other regional players: economic alignment with US interests is the new prerequisite for diplomatic engagement.

Energy Politics: An Unlikely Bargain

One of Trump’s most pressing concerns will be oil prices. High energy costs threaten to exacerbate inflation at home, undermining his economic narrative. Yet Saudi Arabia, the world’s oil price kingpin, has compelling reasons to maintain elevated prices to balance its national budget and sustain its ambitious Vision 2030, especially with several multi-billion infrastructure projects already under development. The negotiations will therefore be less about persuasion and more about strategic bartering. Trump could offer expanded security guarantees or arms deals in exchange for short-term concessions on oil output.

However, any such compromise will be tentative. Gulf states are increasingly aware that energy leverage remains one of the few remaining tools that grant them parity in an otherwise asymmetric partnership with Washington.

Ukraine and the Search for a Quick Fix

A potentially underappreciated dimension of the visit is Trump’s desire to exploit Gulf diplomacy to mediate an end to the Ukraine conflict. During his presidential campaign, President Trump promised to end the Ukraine war “in one day.”

The pledge remains unfulfilled, and with time running out, Trump views the Gulf—particularly Saudi Arabia—as a useful conduit to Moscow. Earlier in 2025, Saudi Arabia quietly hosted US-Russia backchannel talks, reinforcing its position as a neutral mediator. Trump is expected to reward Riyadh with public praise, while also pushing for a renewed Gulf initiative to shepherd in a ceasefire. Should the effort succeed, it would be a major public relations victory for Trump and a strategic elevation for Saudi Arabia on the world stage.

Targeting Beijing: A New Gulf Litmus Test

The China factor will loom large over the visit. Trump will be looking to pressure the Gulf states, not just the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, but all six GCC members, to demonstrably distance themselves from Beijing. Washington sees the Gulf as a critical fault line in broader US-China tensions.

However, for their part these states have increasingly been hedging their bets, engaging China economically while remaining security-dependent on the US. Thus, there’s a risk that pushing too hard could backfire. Trump should convince—not coerce—his Gulf counterparts that closer alignment with Washington remains their safest bet. This will require offering well-grounded economic motivation for the Gulf to do so, particularly in the domains of security cooperation and high-tech trade.

The Abraham Accords and the Tiran Gambit

Normalization with Israel will be another top agenda item. Trump is likely to push Saudi Arabia to formally join the Abraham Accords, while urging the UAE to revitalize its existing commitments. Yet the political cost of such steps is rising in Arab public opinion, especially amid the continuing Israeli operations in Gaza and heightened regional sensitivities on various issues, including the topic of displacement of the Gazan population brought about by the Israeli government.

A more controversial proposal rumored recently under quiet discussion is the establishment of a US military base on Tiran Island, a strategic location in the Red Sea. While potentially beneficial to both US and Israeli security objectives especially for countering the Houthis threat, such a move could spark serious backlash—not just from Iran and Palestinian proxies in the region, but also from Egypt. Cairo could view such an arrangement as undermining its security arrangements for the Suez Canal and Sinai, as well as diminishing its regional role in favor of a growing Saudi-Israeli-American triangle.

If Trump pushes this too far, he risks alienating Egypt—a long-standing US partner—and driving it further into Beijing’s or Moscow’s orbit. The strategic costs could far outweigh the benefits. What is ultimately needed is the strategic security cooperation realignment between the US, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

Gulf Demands: Shifting Leverage in a Multipolar Order

While Trump arrives with a list of asks, the Gulf states are not passive actors. They too have a strategic wishlist and are likely to push hard for reciprocity. These include:

Syria Policy Reset. The Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, is spearheading a regional reintegration of Syria under President Sharaa following Bashar al-Assad’s downfall in December 2024. Gulf leaders want Trump to shift the US policy away from hostility and lift the Caesar Act sanctions that hinder reconstruction and investment. With Qatar and Saudi Arabia pledging to settle Syria’s debts with the World Bank, the Gulf is poised to play a central role in Syria’s economic future—if Washington cooperates.
Deterrence over Iran and Israel. Gulf capitals are increasingly alarmed by the potential for unilateral Israeli escalation against Iran, especially in Lebanon and Syria as well as the targeted strikes in Yemen. They fear being caught in a regional war that would destabilize their economies. Thus, they will likely urge Trump to restrain Israel and initially seek diplomatic solutions, not confrontation. However, a calibrated military coordination between the U.S. and regional Arab partners is surely needed given that the Houthis in Yemen have been posing continuous threat to the safety of vessel traffic in the Red Sea, negatively impacting Egypt’s Suez Canal. Furthermore, given the significant tourism investments by Saudi Arabia along its Western coast, de-escalating the Red Sea crisis is a critical need.
Technology and Defense Deals. Advanced military hardware—including next-generation fighter jets, air defense systems, and drones—will top the list of Gulf asks. Saudi Arabia may also press for US approval of a civilian nuclear program, citing parity with Iran and energy diversification. It was already announced in April that US-Saudi civilian nuclear deal negotiations were moving forward.
AI and Semiconductor Access. The UAE, in particular, is concerned about US export restrictions on advanced semiconductor chips critical for AI development. Trump would likely be asked to ease these restrictions, possibly in exchange for deep Emirati investment in US tech firms and increased distancing from Chinese suppliers. This is a strategic gamble that both sides will likely weigh carefully. It has been reportedthat the US administration is already considering easing export restrictions on the UAE to allow it to buy semiconductors for building AI infrastructure. However, with Trump’s visit to Abu Dhabi soon, a more strategic US-UAE cooperation on AI could be in the cards.
Qatar’s Security Guarantees. Doha is likely to push for continued US military presence and seek reaffirmation of its Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status. It also wants political protection in Washington, particularly in light of Congressional criticism of its ties with Hamas. Qatar’s role as a major regional mediator requires flexibility, which it hopes Trump will preserve.

A Transactional Summit with High Geopolitical Stakes

Trump’s 2025 visit to the Middle East is emblematic of a broader shift in US foreign policy—a move away from institutional alliances and long-term diplomacy toward transactionalism and short-term optics. His reliance on Gulf allies for economic, political, and strategic wins reflects not only his priorities but also the shifting global order in which multipolarity is the new normal.

For Gulf states, the visit is both an opportunity and a test. While they welcome renewed attention from Washington, they are increasingly assertive and selective in their alignments. They will not offer loyalty without benefit, nor will they ignore the rise of alternative global powers. What emerges from this visit may not be a redefinition of the US-Gulf alliance—but it will certainly clarify its contours in an era of global turbulence and recalibrated power.