Myanmar: Confusion, Delusion Vs Resolution Of Revolution – OpEd
Myanmar has endured the longest ongoing civil war in the world, lasting nearly four score years since gaining independence in 1948. Many viewed the armed conflicts as largely ethnic-based revolts for autonomy. This misinterpretation was exploited by the Myanmar military (pejoratively known as Sit-Tat), which has seized power since 1962 under the guise of defending unity and sovereignty. However, the last coup by General Min Aung Hlaing on February 1, 2021, ironically presented an opportunity for all ethnic groups in Myanmar to uproot the military dictatorship, the root cause of long-standing crises of continued armed struggles, atrocities, and poverty.
The coup was met with strong resistance through widespread, peaceful demonstrations and the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). The brutal crackdown by the military led to the formation of armed resistance across the country, entering a violent new chapter known as the Spring Revolution. This involved a genuine nationwide resistance by all ethnic groups, brought together into a unified front with aligned political objectives and military cooperation. Now in its fourth year, Sit-Tat faces fierce opposition from both established ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) and newly formed Local Defense Forces (LDF) and People’s Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG). The once-perceived supremacy of the military and its decades-long dominance in Myanmar’s political arena has suffered a colossal defeat and now appears destined for the garbage heap of history.
It is crucial to learn lessons from the American Revolution to the Arab Spring. The former was a revolution against a foreign oppressive ruler, Great Britain, with an overwhelming strategic and military advantage, by attracting the support of Britain’s enemies, France and Spain1. The latter was a failure to replace the repressive autocracies with democracies due to the absence of stable institutions or external assistance2. The Myanmar Spring Revolution is unique in that it is a constellation of opposing forces of justice and injustice, dictatorship and democracy, autonomy of ethnic groups and the ambition of forming a federal union based on equal opportunity, as well as geopolitics caught between the two most populous countries and global tension at the peak of a new cold war between the two superpowers.
The key to victory is for all Myanmar people to have a clear vision of their common goals—what they are fighting against and what they are fighting for—as well as to steer delicate diplomacy in the region and between the superpowers. The goal is not merely to end the military dictatorship, but to fulfill the pursuit of liberty, democracy, peace, and prosperity through justice, equity, harmony, and unity for all ethnic groups in Myanmar.
As the revolution turned the tide from stalemate since October 2023, misinformation and disinformation increased, confusing the public and the world, resulting in delusions that jeopardized the revolution and enabled the junta. The hypes of “fragmentation” and “disintegration” were amplified by the junta proxy media and “experts” sympathetic to or affiliated with military elites as the EROs exercised their long-lost autonomy in newly gained territories. The intention was to instill the delusion of decentralized government leading to self-governing statelets, resulting in a failed state3. This echoed the notorious propaganda of Ne Win and his generals. In reality, no ERO has ever demanded complete secession.
It is true that the Sit-Tat has overwhelming firepower, including the air force and heavy artillery. But the delusion that the military is not on the brink of collapse is the same mistake made by some experts who predicted three years ago that “the military will win in the end.”4 History has taught even the superpowers that advanced weapons and overwhelming firepower are not the determining factors in winning a war. Sit-Tat is on a deep slippery slope due to lack of support from the people and mismanagement by corrupt leadership. The days of Min Aung Hlaing and his inner circle are numbered. Quoting Sun Tzu: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” It is crucial to remember that the military is not the only means to an end in a revolution, which also requires political, diplomatic, and economic fronts.
At the beginning of the revolution, there was a naive expectation of military intervention by the US as in Afghanistan and Syria and military aid as in Ukraine and Israel. There were hypes about the R2P (Responsibility to Protect) by the UN or a No-Fly Zone by the West and the US. The lack of these actions, as well as the continued presence of the US embassy in Yangon and the absence of recognition of the NUG, culminated in the delusion among Myanmar people that US influence was limited in shaping Myanmar’s future, being restricted by Beijing. The reality was that although the US condemned the coup and refused to engage with the military junta, its response was inadequate due to competing priorities and a more general approach to humanitarian intervention. This meant that the US might have overlooked opportunities to fully support democracy and freedom in Myanmar, especially considering the urgency of the situation and the numerous conflicts demanding US attention worldwide.5.
The aid allocated in NDAAs by the US was not palpable to people in conflict-affected areas, leading to the delusion of misuse of the funds. The reality was that there were obstacles in delivering the aid due to limited cross-border access and existing NGOs being practically restricted in their operations in military-controlled ports and territories.
There has been confusion about the genesis and role of the NUG, leading to the delusion that the NUG was sidelined during the acceleration of the revolution because of inadequate transparency, further compounded by disinformation and misinformation. After the coup, the 298 elected parliamentarians who escaped arrest held a virtual emergency session and formed the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH)6. The National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC)7, a national assembly consisting of CRPH representatives, ethnic groups, political parties, CDM activists, and CSOs, was established under the Federal Democratic Charter (FDC) and later appointed the NUG to function as an interim government during the revolution8.
The NUG led the revolution on diplomatic and economic fronts, fundraising, technical support, and administered governance via administrative offices, provided a crypto banking (Spring Development Bank), digital currency (NUG Pay) worldwide, and services for health and education in liberated areas. Three military regions under Central Command and Coordination Committee (C3C), Joint Command and Coordination (J2C) were formed to coordinate military operations with NUG and ERO leadership9. The NUG has achieved historical unity and cooperation with the EROs through sincere dialogue and successfully formed a political alliance (K3C) with the Chin National Front, Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, and Kachin Independence Organization (non-signee)10.
The Myanmar diaspora around the world is also a crucial proponent of the revolution in fundraising, logistic support, and advocacy to their concerned residential countries and international communities. While there are multiple community organizations in different parts of the world that appear to be heterogeneous and desynchronized, it is a good indication of historic global participation of all Myanmar ethnic descendants. The reality is all Myanmar diasporas are standing for one common goal benefiting all people of Myanmar.
While these groups are not without fault, building and maintaining a unified front across the political and military fronts is key to victory for the revolution. While there will be disagreements and different priorities and interests among the groups, it is essential for all actors to stay focused on their common enemy and avoid turning against each other. The differences can be discussed democratically, debated peacefully, and negotiated sincerely. All parties must avoid the political obstacles set by internal and external enemies that could divide their unity and derail their mission.
The NUG must step up its leadership in expanding the alliance with all the EROs and consolidating unity and solidarity by forming a National Unified Government, which would be a good standing for international recognition. Leaders must embrace transparency, tolerance, flexibility, mobility, and adaptability to meet a plethora of demands with limited resources. The rigidity of old politics and doctrines must be transformed. It is time to set clear strategies for political, military, and economic plans. As much as the NUG has innovatively raised lawful funds, it is time to establish a sustainable business enterprise.
The diaspora should be systematically organized and delegated for their knowledge, skills, and resources to enrich the capacity of the revolutionary forces. To avoid the crisis stage of revolution marked by radical reign of terror and the Thermidor stage with the establishment of a new tyrant as in the French and Russian Revolutions, and to adopt an exceptional American Revolution11, post-revolution plans for reconciliation of differences, reunification of ethnicities, reformulation of a new union with a new constitution, rebuilding of the war-torn country, and restoration of peace and prosperity must be made.
The ASEAN and neighboring countries should accept that the corrupt generals are the impediment to regional stability and economic growth. As some countries may have short-sighted benefits of cheap labor and dumping grounds for their poor-quality products, an unstable Myanmar means more refugees, crimes involving drugs, human trafficking, and online scams that will spread not only regionally but globally. The West and the international community must enforce an arms and jet fuel embargo as well as targeted sanctions against the top brass, their family members, and cronies.
China must honor and implement the 1954 historic “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence” sincerely and in good faith for the mutual benefit of the Sino-Myanmar people, not for the war criminals who are also at the center of corruption scandals.
The US strategy on Myanmar should not be about tit-for-tat with China, but it should be about genuinely being a reliable, trusted, and good partner for values of freedom and democracy. The US should take a leading role in supporting the resistance by providing substantial support for nonlethal assistance for governance and humanitarian aid. The 2017 National Security Strategy of preventing violent conflicts and engaging in peacebuilding12 will not be effective in dealing with Myanmar generals. There will be no negotiation unless the military accepts civilian oversight and surrenders its involvement in politics. It is vital that the military relinquishes political power and forgoes impunity for war crimes.
While the future of Myanmar must be shaped by Myanmar’s people with prudence, patience, and perseverance, the international community must stand firm to support the quest for liberty, democracy, peace, and prosperity. The revolution must prevail.
References:
- https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/diplomacy
- https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4939-1705-1_16
- https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/b180-ethnic-autonomy-and-its-consequences-post-coup-myanmar
- https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/why-myanmars-military-will-win-in-the-end/
- https://www.sanders.senate.gov/op-eds/a-revolution-in-american-foreign-policy/
- https://crphmyanmar.org/history-and-formation-of-crph/
- https://wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Unity_Consultative_Council
- https://www.nugmyanmar.org/
- https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/understanding-peoples-defense-forces-myanmar
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Myanmar-resistance-groups-offer-conditional-talks-with-military
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Anatomy_of_Revolution
- https://www.state.gov/united-states-strategy-to-prevent-conflict-and-promote-stability/
Another excellent op-ed article. As a western observer I noticed your article omits the inclusion of the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi? Is there another spiritual light that inspires the Burmese people. Is the NLD still relevant in the civil conflict and the Sit Tat demise?
Thank you for very thoughtful and relevant question. The objective of this article is not to lose sight of the of bird’s-eyes view of the main issues and to watch out for the opportunistic predictors and to pin-down on the original targets.
1. It was well known that NLD legitimately won the election by the landslide which was dismissed by MAL and Sit-Tat by staging the coup. The top leadership was under arbitrary arrest including both the State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the President U Win Myint who were harshly sentenced with the bogus charges which should be other way around.
2. People across the country responded with peaceful demonstration which was pushed to become arms revolt due to brutal crack down by MAL and Sit-Tat, leading to atrocities.
3. The revolution was born out of fresh and blood of the people. The initial leadership was established by CRPH—> NUCC—> NUG comprised of elected parliamentarians from NLD and other political parties, diverse ethnic groups and civil societies. The Revolution was further enforced and unified by the ERO’s who have been fighting for their freedom and rights lost to the military dictatorships for decades.
4. Yes. NUG was fertilised partly with the DNA of NLD and mainly with the DNA of all the ethnic groups. The revolution is not about a single person, party or group. It’s about one common goal for all people and all people for one common goal.
5. As the revolution picked up the momentum against the odds predicted by the spin doctors and “ experts”, there were increasing distractions and disinformations in the forms of identity of race, religion and political background to break up the unified forces that were detrimental to the revolution and beneficial for the junta and military. These negative distractions were done by internal and external forces who were looking out for the lira self-serving interests only.
6. We have to be very vigilant about the dirty tricks of sham election, pseudo-truce by “peacemakers” to give soft landing and exits of the war criminals if their power-holding cannot be salvaged.
8. We have to protect the safety of the members of political parties on the ground and the political prisoners by avoiding direct association with the Revolution.
9. All actors of Revolution have to keep the unity stronger than ever and stay above the narrow minded self interest.
10. The future of Myanmar must be in the hand of Myanmar people who have sacrificed decades of suffering mentally, physically, economically and socially with thousands of lives lost and millions of victims displaced.