What Realities Can Be Seen In The Mirror Of The Syrian Revolution? – OpEd

On the morning of Sunday, December 8, 2024, Syria and the Middle East witnessed one of the most significant transformations in their history: the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This historic event not only marks the end of a brutal dictatorship in Syria but also carries profound and far-reaching implications for the political and social dynamics of the region, particularly for the Iranian regime.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had repeatedly justified his regime’s costly interventions in the region by emphasizing their strategic importance, stating, “If we don’t fight and spend resources in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, we will have to fight in the streets of Kermanshah, Hamedan, and other provinces.” Similarly, cleric Hossein Taeb declared, “If the enemy attacks us and seeks to take Syria or Khuzestan, our priority must be to preserve Syria. If we hold onto Syria, we can also reclaim Khuzestan. But if we lose Syria, we won’t be able to hold onto Tehran either.”

Reality 1: The Collapse of the Iranian Regime’s Strategic Depth

The Iranian regime had always considered the fall of Syria as a strategic defeat for itself. From the onset of the Syrian crisis, the mullahs prioritized the survival of Assad’s regime through extensive military, financial, and ideological interventions. However, several key factors demonstrate the failure of this strategy:

1. Weakening of the IRGC and Hezbollah: The Iranian regime relied on Syria as a logistical and operational hub to supply arms and manpower to Hezbollah. Assad’s fall dismantled this critical support base, significantly undermining Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon and the region.

2. Iran’s Domestic Crises: Popular uprisings, economic collapse, and international pressures have eroded the regime’s capacity to sustain its proxy forces. This, coupled with Hezbollah’s military setbacks and the mullahs’ diminishing influence in Syria and Iraq, paved the way for Assad’s downfall.

Reality 2: The Role of the Syrian People in Toppling Dictatorship

Assad’s fall was primarily the result of the persistent struggle and resistance of the Syrian people against over four decades of dictatorship by the Assad family. What began as civil protests transformed into a widespread armed uprising due to relentless crackdowns. This resistance underscored the fragility of the regime’s grip in the face of collective public determination.

Reality 3: Armed Struggle as the Only Path to Overcoming Dictatorship

Syria’s experience once again highlights that armed struggle can play a decisive role in confronting regimes like those of Assad, Shah, or Khamenei. Civil disobedience and non-violent resistance often prove inadequate or even prolong the lifespan of oppressive regimes.

For the Iranian people, this is a valuable lesson. The fall of Assad demonstrates that regimes built on internal repression and regional interventions are highly vulnerable to organized and revolutionary uprisings.

Reality 4: The Parallels between the Syrian Revolution and Iran’s 1979 Revolution

The Syrian revolution evokes striking similarities to Iran’s 1979 revolution. Just as the Iranian people, during their anti-monarchical uprising, tore down the symbols of monarchy—statues of Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah—they also flung open the doors of prisons, liberating detainees from the Shah’s torture chambers. Similarly, in Syria, the people expressed their rage against decades of corruption and oppression by dismantling the symbols of the Assad dynasty and toppling its brutal dictatorship. They also opened the gates of Assad’s prisons and torture facilities, freeing countless victims of his oppressive regime.

Bashar al-Assad’s flight to Russia mirrors Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s escape, highlighting a remarkable resemblance between the two dictators. Both sought to deny their atrocities, but history has judged—and will continue to judge—them differently.

The horrifying and shocking images of atrocities committed by Assad’s regime and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in prisons like Saydnaya reveal the extent of the brutality of such dictatorships. They also expose Assad as a puppet of the Iranian regime. These atrocities forcefully illuminate the reality of despotic governments like the mullahs’ regime in Iran.

Moreover, these brutalities expose the disgraceful policies of appeasement pursued by global powers. These policies not only undermine human rights but also embolden tyrants, allowing atrocities akin to the horrific crimes of Hitler to resurface.

Impacts and Consequences of Assad’s Fall

1. Severe Weakening of the Iranian Regime: For years, Khamenei argued that his regime’s survival depended on its presence in Syria. Assad’s fall marks the loss of a crucial strategic pillar for Tehran, dramatically increasing both internal and external pressures on the regime.

2. Weakening of Hezbollah: Hezbollah, which had long benefited from logistical and military support via Syria, has now lost this strategic base, leaving it more vulnerable to internal and external challenges.

3. Reduced Iranian Influence in the Region: Assad’s collapse restricts the mullahs’ ability to exert influence in Iraq and other parts of the region, further isolating the regime internationally.

Conclusion: A Mirror for Iran

The Syrian revolution reflects a potential future for Iran. Just as Bashar al-Assad was brought to his knees by the will of his people, the mullahs’ regime is similarly vulnerable to growing popular uprisings and the erosion of its domestic and regional power base. Assad’s fall illustrates that organized and revolutionary struggle is an inevitable path for oppressed nations striving for freedom and democracy.