Africa And The Misfortunes Of Climate Change Stress – Analysis
Food and water insecurity, population displacements, competition for land, health risks: the exposure of the African continent to the impacts of climate change is contributing to the emergence of numerous security risks for the populations. This is due in particular to the large share of agriculture and fishing in the economies, sectors that are particularly sensitive to climate variations, as well as the relatively low adaptation capacity of countries.
Climate change in Africa
First of all, an increase in average temperature has been observed throughout the continent (as in the rest of the world). Some regions have already exceeded +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era. According to a pessimistic emissions scenario, which, however, in view of the commitments made by States in terms of mitigation, appears likely: the average temperature in Africa could exceed +3.5°C in some regions, and at least +2°C, by 2050. However, the more the average temperature increases, the more the other impacts intensify: in strength and in frequency.
The report entitled “State of the Climate in Africa 2021”, published on September 8, 2022, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that African countries will soon experience water stress.
It explains that the rate of temperature rise in Africa, about +0.3°C per decade from 1991 to 2021, is faster than the global average and that the average near-surface air temperature in Africa is estimated to be 0.68°C above the baseline.
The report is based on the fact that the surface area of Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since 1960, resulting in a reduction in arable land, a decline in fish production, and a loss of biological biodiversity in the Chad Basin.
In addition, according to the same report, about 418 million people in Africa do not have access to safe drinking water, 779 million people lack basic sanitation services, and 839 million lack basic hygiene services.
For a more integrated management of water resources, the WMO report proposes to African countries, transboundary cooperation, through data exchange and knowledge sharing, crop diversification, and the use of more drought-resistant crops.
This is in addition to the adoption of investment policies for water resources management and sanitation.
This is first of all the case of heat waves phenomena, which affect the whole continent, particularly the Horn of Africa. These heat waves have of course harmful consequences on the populations, but also on the fauna and flora. Also linked to the increase in average temperature, there is a significant increase in desertification phenomena which, according to the FAO, could cause the loss of 2/3 of the continent’s arable land by 2030. The Sahel strip is particularly concerned, but also the east coast and the south and north of the continent.
The disruption of the climate system is also causing changes in rainfall patterns, with significant regional disparities. The decrease in precipitation contributes to drought phenomena, which are already strongly affecting the North and South of the continent. This trend will continue in the coming years: the percentage of the decade spent in drought in 2050 could exceed 80% in North Africa, and in the South of the continent
Manifestations of climate change
Conversely, changes in precipitation patterns can also cause increased rainfall, often resulting in floods, which are sometimes coupled with landslides. East Africa is a particularly vulnerable region to both droughts and floods that follow one another and undermine natural and social systems.
Another manifestation of climate change on the continent is the rise in sea levels. Here it is of course the countries with a coastline that are affected, and in Africa, we note a particularly significant rise from Mauritania to the Gulf of Guinea. In addition, populations located in island states, such as the Seychelles, Madagascar, or Mauritius are particularly threatened as their territory is submerged by water. The south-western part of the continent is also affected, with a rise of about 5mm per year. In addition, the increase in CO2 emissions, and the amount stored by the oceans, is causing an acidification of the water that impacts plant and animal organisms.
Finally, as stated in the latest IPCC report released in August 2021, (1) climate change is accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters of climate origin. In addition to flooding, there is also an increased occurrence of storms and cyclones. We are thinking here particularly of the east coast of Africa, especially in Mozambique, which has been affected in the last two years by particularly violent cyclones, at very close intervals.
The phenomenon has become more severe in recent years due to climate change induced by man, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2) Its disruptions are such that they reduce the frequency and quantity of rainfall, plunging states into drought. This means that water reserves cannot recharge as they should in order to maintain a hydrological balance.
What is water stress?
Under the combined pressure of population growth, lack of infrastructure and global warming, Africa will be particularly exposed to large-scale water shortages in the coming years. This economic, social, and existential threat to Africa could lead to new waves of migration to Europe.
A reference study published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (3) on Tuesday, October 5, 2021 has drawn up a damning report on water stress at the international level. To sum up, almost everywhere in the world – but particularly in Africa – situations of water stress are multiplying, defining the threshold where water availability is less than 500 m3 per year and per person.
On this important issue, Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization: (4)
“Increasing temperatures are resulting in global and regional precipitation changes, leading to shifts in rainfall patterns and agricultural seasons, with a major impact on food security and human health and well-being.”
Thus, in the last twenty years, the duration and number of droughts have increased by nearly 30% on the continent. By 2030, according to the WMO report, 118 million Africans will be exposed to droughts, floods and extreme heat if adequate measures are not taken. Currently, 40% of the world’s people without access to a sustainable supply of drinking water live in sub-Saharan Africa. Less than a month before the next World Water Forum, the IPCC warns, in its latest report dated February 28, on the water consequences of global warming and proves once again the need for a global mobilization in the face of the humanitarian drama to come
Water stress and its injurious consequences
The least access to drinking water has deleterious consequences that are both transversal and complex for the countries affected. They are of three kinds:
- They are already sanitary: The lack of sanitation capacity is a vector of epidemic diffusion, especially in urban centers, where populations are extremely concentrated and where there is strong demographic pressure. About 3,000 people die every day in Africa from water-related diseases. By 2025, Africa’s urban population is expected to reach 750 million, surpassing the total population of Europe, increasing the risks. By 2022, Lagos could have 15.4 million inhabitants, Kinshasa 17.8 million, and Cairo 12.5 million.
- They are agricultural: Water scarcity has logical consequences on irrigation capacity and yields and contributes to weakening food security in some countries already under stress.
- They are economic: The time lost by households to collect water – estimated at 33 minutes in rural areas and 25 in urban areas – takes away 1 point of GDP from the continent each year and often deprives children of an intellectual and technical education that is fundamental to the socio-economic development of countries. As for the lack of water infrastructure, it is estimated to cost sub-Saharan Africa 5% of its GDP each year.
But the water stress situation can also push people, mostly from the middle class, to look for better prospects outside of their country of origin and thus become climate change refugees. This is highlighted by a recent report of The World Bank: (5)
‘’Climate change is fueling water-induced migration, as rainfall variability in particular drives people to search for better prospects elsewhere. Seventeen of the world’s countries – home to 25% of the world’s population – are already experiencing extreme water stress. Water challenges are disproportionately felt in the developing world, with more than 85% of people affected by rainfall variability living in low- or middle-income countries.
This does not mean that there are waves of poor “water refugees” migrating to escape drought. In reality, it is the poorest who often lack the means to migrate, even when doing so might improve their livelihoods and prospects. Residents of poor countries are four times less likely to move than residents of middle-income countries.’’
Extreme drought in Morocco
It was already known that the drought that Morocco is experiencing this year was one of the most serious in several years. Today, international organizations confirm the seriousness of the situation, indicating that it is, in fact, the worst period of drought in 40 years.
This is what emerges, for example, from the latest report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the state of the climate in 2022. (6) Its main conclusions are reported by Al Ahdath Al Maghribia in its edition on Wednesday, November 23.
In the same report, the organization says that everything suggests that the last eight years have been the hottest the world has ever known, and this is mainly because of the accumulation of gases in the air. As the newspaper also points out, the WMO report is a reminder that people in developing countries are those who suffer the most from the impact of global warming, as evidenced by the recent floods in Pakistan this year, or the severe drought that has affected the Horn of Africa for a long time. Millions of people are already paying a high price for these impacts, with a financial cost estimated in the report at several billion dollars.
The WMO is not the only one to be alarmed by the current climate situation. Indeed, the international NGO Greenpeace has also just published a report on the climate. In it, says the Arabic-language daily, it is indicated that Morocco suffers severely from the effects of climate change, like other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, concerned by this report. Thus, the organization describes as “unprecedented” the drought that has hit the kingdom this year. Worse still, the NGO predicts a worsening of the situation in some agricultural areas, such as the Souss. Greenpeace has drawn up a list of six countries in this region that are likely to suffer the fatal consequences of climate change in the future. And Morocco is listed alongside Egypt, Algeria, Lebanon, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries should expect a significant increase in temperatures on their territories, which will naturally impact their food production.
The oases of Erfoud are suffering the full force of the effects of the drought that has hit the various regions of the Kingdom. Faced with the scarcity of water that has led to a decline in the production of date palms, farmers in the region are sounding the alarm.
In Erfoud, the drought has destroyed a large number of plantations, trees, and palm trees. Faced with this phenomenon, combined with fires and water stress, oasis agriculture is done in very difficult conditions, lament the farmers of Erfoud.
“The date palms are the only source of income for many families. We have no other employment opportunities in this region. We hope that the next rains will be able to feed the water tables,” said Abdellah, a farmer in Erfoud, in a statement to Le 360. (7)
He added, moreover, that the groundwater, which feeds the oases, is heavily impacted because of water stress and the delay in rainfall observed for over two years.
Interviewed by Le360, Abdessamad Hadri, an agricultural engineer, explains that to cope with the drought that threatens the oases, several measures have been taken, including reducing the cultivation of water-consuming varieties, such as watermelon, in the provinces facing water scarcity.
Fires, a disrupted rainy calendar and severe drought are all factors behind the decline in date palm production from 150,000 tons in previous years to 120,000 tons currently.
“Certainly, in this situation characterized by water stress, the production of date palms has fallen this year. But the Green Morocco Plan has given an extremely important impetus to move from a production of 50,000 tons to an average of 140,000 tons annually, “notes Brahim Hafidi, Director General of the National Agency for the Development of Oasis and Argan Zones (ANDZOA), in a statement for Le 360.
It should be recalled that the Generation Green strategy, launched by the King in 2020, will continue the work and focus on the development and planting of 5 million trees, including 3 million inside the palm groves for densification and 2 million outside the palm groves for the extension.
Conclusion: Dire consequences if nothing is done
Under the combined pressure of population growth, lack of infrastructure, and global warming, Africa will be particularly exposed to large-scale water shortages in the coming years. This economic, social, and existential threat to Africa could lead to new waves of migration to Europe.
In addition to the logical sensitivity to the humanitarian disaster to come, the European Union may not be spared from this potential crisis. A World Bank report, released in March 2018, (8) estimates that 86 million people in water distress are forced to migrate and logically tempted by Europe, which would be globally preserved. A figure to be added to the traditional migrations linked to economic vulnerabilities and armed conflicts. And above all, a migratory mass to be put into perspective with the “only” 2.7 million individuals who immigrated to the European Union in 2019, according to European Union data, whose management has been particularly delicate and a vector of major political tensions, contributing strongly to the rise of populism.
This World Bank report, points out that: (9)
‘’The worsening impacts of climate change in three densely populated regions of the world could see over 140 million people move within their countries’ borders by 2050, creating a looming human crisis and threatening the development process, a new World Bank Group report finds
But with concerted action – including global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and robust development planning at the country level – this worst-case scenario of over 140m could be dramatically reduced, by as much as 80 percent, or more than 100 million people.
The report, Groundswell – Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, is the first and most comprehensive study of its kind to focus on the nexus between slow-onset climate change impacts, internal migration patterns and, development in three developing regions of the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
It finds that unless urgent climate and development action is taken globally and nationally, these three regions together could be dealing with tens of millions of internal climate migrants by 2050. These are people forced to move from increasingly non-viable areas of their countries due to growing problems like water scarcity, crop failure, sea-level rise and storm surges.
These “climate migrants” would be additional to the millions of people already moving within their countries for economic, social, political or other reasons, the report warns.’’
You can follow Professor Mohamed Chtatou on Twitter: @Ayurinu
Endnotes:
- The World Bank. Going With The Flow: Water’s Role in Global Migration. August 23, 2021. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/08/23/going-with-the-flow-water-s-role-in-global-migration
- The United Nations. Climate Change. 2022. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports?gclid=Cj0KCQiAsoycBhC6ARIsAPPbeLuFe3R400QZXoCmVn5Td_A0ahi_6e76cux2uwsBwhmvXvhI9jvZoecaAsofEALw_wcB
- World Meteorological Organization. Wake up to the looming water crisis, report warns. October 5, 2021. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wake-looming-water-crisis-report-warns
- Ibid
- The World Bank. Going With The Flow: Water’s Role in Global Migration. August 23, 2021, op. cit.
- World Meteorological Organization. 2022 State of Climate Services: Energy (WMO-No. 1301). 2022. https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22136#.Y4MmeXbMLIU
- Fatima Zahra El Aouni et Khadija Sebbar. ‘’ A cause de la sécheresse, les oasis d’Erfoud face à un avenir incertain’’, Le 360, November 26, 2022, https://fr.le360.ma/societe/a-cause-de-la-secheresse-les-oasis-derfoud-face-a-un-avenir-incertain-271102
- The World Bank. Climate Change Could Force Over 140 Million to Migrate Within Countries by 2050: World Bank Report. March 19, 2018. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050-world-bank-report
- Ibid