Trump’s Approval Rating: Media Narratives Vs. Political Reality – Analysis

In the past few weeks, major global media outlets have been bombarding the public with claims of U.S. President Donald Trump’s alleged low approval ratings.

The narrative is as follows: “After the first 100 days of his second term, Trump has the lowest approval rating of any U.S. president in history.” In this way, U.S. and other media outlets hostile to Trump take pleasure in his struggles, perhaps seeking some form of retribution after his election win, possibly even anticipating some kind of populist revolt. However, a closer look at the actual polls and a broader analysis show that the situation for Trump is not as critical as it is being portrayed.

Exaggeration

Although the headlines of media outlets claim that Trump has the lowest approval rating in history, the polls themselves admit that he has the lowest rating since President Dwight Eisenhower. This means we’re talking about around 70 years of history, not the full 249 years since the founding of the United States. According to polls by CNN and SSRS, Trump’s approval rating after 100 days stood at 41%, with 58% of Americans disapproving of his actions. These same polls show that Trump’s approval rating fell by 11% from February to April.

When analyzing polls, it’s important to note that they are not infallibly reliable; elections are the true measure. Polling flaws are a common occurrence. Questions arise about whether respondents answered truthfully, who was targeted, when they responded, and how the questions were formulated, among other factors. The aforementioned poll (though others claim similar results) was conducted with only 1,678 respondents, either via phone or online, a very small sample considering that there are 168 million registered voters in the U.S. Polls should not be taken as gospel. For example, just before the presidential election last year, polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were tied at 47%, yet Trump lost by a narrow margin.

Low Approval Rating – Not a New Phenomenon

An approval rating of around 40% is not a novelty, and several other presidents in recent history have experienced similar ratings. Joe Biden had an average approval rating of 42.2% during his only term from 2021 to 2025, while Donald Trump had 41% in his first term. Despite the low ratings, had Biden been a decade younger and capable of intellectually competing with Trump in a campaign (sharp retorts, quick reactions, and meaningful mental games), there is little doubt that he would be very close to winning the 2024 election. With a charismatic public performance, he could overcome significant challenges such as the migration and economic crises, which he failed to resolve during his term. In any case, he would perform far better than Kamala Harris, who was unprepared for the challenge both in terms of political substance and form: unclear formulations, gaffes, and a lack of strong political messages.

Similarly, although Trump had the lowest average approval rating since 1938 during his 2017-2021 term (41%, dropping to 31% towards the end of his term), he narrowly lost the 2020 election. He lost key swing states by only a few tens of thousands of votes. In the end, if it hadn’t been for the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused chaos in public health, a recession, and tarnished Trump’s image as an unchallenged leader, there is no doubt that Trump would have secured a convincing, possibly even overwhelming (landslide) victory, similar to the one in 2016. From 2017 to 2019, the U.S. economy experienced stable growth, unemployment reached historic lows, and stock indices broke records. Additionally, Trump’s administration implemented effective deregulation of the economy, tax reform, and began withdrawing U.S. troops from prolonged wars, which resonated with American voters weary of interventionism.

“Popular” Obama and “Unpopular” Bush

When considering presidential approval ratings, it’s important to note that the media darling, Barack Obama, didn’t have a particularly spectacular rating, despite how the media portrayed him. His average approval rating during his eight years in office from 2009 to 2017 was “just” 47.9%. Obama’s approval was affected by major societal and racial divisions, especially evident in the second half of his presidency. There was a rise in radical left-wing groups like Antifa, as well as waves of protests tied to the Black Lives Matter movement, particularly after incidents of police violence against African Americans, which further polarized the public. On the other hand, the rise of right-wing groups like the Tea Party, which initially operated within the Republican Party, eventually led to more extreme political discourse. Radical right-wing groups such as the Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, and various nationalist and anti-government militias, as well as the revived Ku Klux Klan, emerged.

In contrast to the “popular” Obama, his predecessor in the White House, the “unpopular” George W. Bush, had a better approval rating – 49.4% – during his eight years in office from 2001 to 2009. Despite being portrayed as an awkward speaker and a symbol of the failure of U.S. intervention in the Middle East (the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq), Bush enjoyed significant support from Americans. He had high approval ratings during critical moments, such as after the September 11, 2001 attacks, when he symbolized determination and national unity. Despite his later drop in popularity due to the wars and the financial crisis, his earlier strong support had a lasting impact on his relatively solid average approval rating throughout his term.

Social Divisions Destroy Presidential Approval Ratings

In the 20th century, U.S. presidents had much higher approval ratings. Bill Clinton had an average rating of 55.1%, George H. W. Bush had 60.9%, and Ronald Reagan had 52.8%. These are elusive figures for 21st-century presidents. Why? Because the United States was not as strongly polarized as it is today. The differences between liberals/progressives and conservatives were not as sharply drawn. America has become drastically divided, and there is less tolerance for the other side. The right recognizes Republican politicians, and the left recognizes Democrats. Few politicians from either the Republican or Democratic parties at the national level (state and local politics are another matter) can enjoy any significant support from voters of the opposing party.

The deeply entrenched ideological divide in America has resulted in presidents, regardless of their achievements or personal qualities, primarily drawing political support from their own base, while attempts to garner broad national support have become increasingly difficult.

This means that in the U.S., there are roughly 50% Republican and 50% Democratic voters. A Republican or Democratic president can maybe gain 1 or 2 percentage points of approval from the opposing party’s voters. If their own supporters are even slightly dissatisfied and don’t explicitly express support, the president’s approval rating will hover around 40-45%.

Trump Has No Reason to Worry

Taking all of this into account, Donald Trump has no reason to be concerned about his approval rating. His rating has fallen somewhat due to political scandals within his administration, federal government employee layoffs, concerns over tariffs, and a friendlier stance toward Russia. Ultimately, regardless of his approval rating, Trump will not have the opportunity to run for the presidency in 2028 because the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits a third term. Trump could potentially reach a third term through other convoluted and difficult political maneuvers.

However, even assuming that Trump’s approval rating is truly low, it will not negatively impact the functioning of his administration. The U.S. midterm elections for Congress will take place in November 2026. At that point, the president’s approval rating will play some role, but the ratings of Senate and House candidates and the party’s ratings in federal states and districts will be much more significant. Even if Trump ends his term with a low approval rating around 30%, a Republican presidential candidate will be able to distance themselves from him and claim that he is a person for themselves. All in all, it’s much ado about nothing.