SCO Summit In Islamabad: A Test Of Pakistan’s Regional Diplomacy – OpEd

In October, Pakistan will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Islamabad—a critical moment for the country’s international diplomacy. For Pakistan, this is not just another high-level gathering; it is an opportunity to showcase its commitment to multilateralism, rebuild its global image, and potentially recalibrate its strategic relationships with regional powers. As Islamabad prepares to welcome leaders from China, Russia, and Central Asia, the summit’s significance goes beyond formal discussions, offering a platform to address both economic and security challenges that Pakistan faces in an increasingly polarized geopolitical landscape.

A Diplomatic Lifeline Amidst Domestic Turmoil

The timing of the summit is crucial for Pakistan, which is grappling with a myriad of domestic challenges. The nation faces a looming economic crisis, political instability, and ongoing security concerns, particularly along its border with Afghanistan. Hosting the SCO offers Islamabad a chance to stabilize its diplomatic narrative and shift focus towards regional cooperation, rather than internal discord.

Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar’s caretaker government, installed after the dissolution of Parliament in August, will be under immense pressure to prove that Pakistan remains a credible international actor despite its political upheaval. The summit provides an opportunity for Pakistan to engage with its most influential partners, especially China and Russia, and push forward its own agenda on regional security, economic partnerships, and connectivity.

Economic Cooperation: A Glimmer of Hope?

One of Pakistan’s key objectives at the SCO summit will be to seek enhanced economic cooperation. With inflation soaring and its foreign exchange reserves dwindling, Pakistan desperately needs to strengthen economic ties with its regional neighbors. China, through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), remains Pakistan’s largest economic partner and most reliable source of infrastructure investments. The summit could offer an opportunity to expand CPEC projects and invite more investments from Central Asian countries looking for access to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan’s ports.

Furthermore, the SCO’s growing emphasis on regional trade and connectivity could serve as a gateway for Pakistan to diversify its economic partnerships. For instance, expanding energy cooperation with Russia, a conversation that began when the two countries signed a liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal earlier this year, may find new momentum at the summit. These initiatives, however, require more than just agreements on paper—they need political stability and implementation on the ground, both of which remain uncertain in Pakistan’s current climate.

The Shadow of India: Diplomatic Opportunities and Tensions

One of the most anticipated aspects of the summit is whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend. Pakistan extended a formal invitation to India, but New Delhi has remained non-committal. If Modi chooses to attend, it would be the first high-profile visit by an Indian leader since 2015, when he made a surprise stop in Lahore to meet then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. But given the frosty relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors—exacerbated by India’s 2019 decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status—it seems increasingly likely that Modi will skip the event.

Should Modi decline the invitation, the chances for any diplomatic breakthrough between India and Pakistan will dim further. Tensions between the two nations have not only stalled bilateral relations but have also crippled South Asian regional cooperation, with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) effectively frozen since 2016. The SCO, which includes both India and Pakistan, remains one of the few multilateral forums where the two countries regularly interact, even if only symbolically. Modi’s absence would diminish the summit’s potential to serve as a platform for dialogue, casting a shadow over the possibility of broader regional cooperation.

Security Concerns and Regional Stability

Beyond economic issues, security is a central theme for Pakistan at the SCO summit. As the war in Ukraine continues to reshape global alliances, and as the situation in Afghanistan remains volatile, Pakistan will use the forum to reinforce its stance on regional stability. The presence of Russia and China—the two most influential players in the SCO—gives Islamabad an opportunity to discuss its concerns about Afghanistan’s stability and the threat posed by militant groups that operate along its border. Pakistan will likely seek assurances from its SCO partners, particularly Russia, on coordinated efforts to stabilize Afghanistan and curb the threat of terrorism.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which Pakistan is a key part, also ties into the broader security concerns. Beijing has an interest in ensuring stability in Pakistan and the surrounding region to protect its investments in CPEC. Russia, while focused on its conflict in Ukraine, has been increasingly interested in deepening its role in South Asia, particularly through energy deals with Islamabad. Pakistan may find common ground with these major powers on security cooperation, though balancing these relationships with its strained ties with the West, especially the United States, will remain a delicate task.

The Prospects for Pakistan

While the SCO summit offers Pakistan a significant stage, the prospects for substantive outcomes are uncertain. Much depends on how effectively Islamabad can leverage its relationships within the SCO to address its pressing economic and security challenges. Pakistan’s caretaker government, facing an impending general election and a struggling economy, will need to prove that it can manage these relationships and navigate the complexities of international diplomacy. Whether or not the summit leads to meaningful agreements, it provides Pakistan with a rare opportunity to shape regional narratives and assert itself as a key player in South Asia’s future.

At the same time, the summit will be a test of Pakistan’s diplomatic agility. If India skips the event and other SCO members remain cautious, Pakistan could find itself sidelined in a forum where it has historically played a peripheral role. On the other hand, if Islamabad successfully strengthens its ties with China, Russia, and Central Asia, it could signal a shift in the region’s balance of power, with Pakistan playing a more active role in shaping its future.

As Pakistan prepares for October’s summit, the stakes are high. The SCO offers a chance to reset its regional relations, particularly at a time when its internal challenges threaten to overwhelm its international standing. Whether Pakistan seizes this moment or lets it slip through its fingers will have lasting implications for its place in an increasingly divided and competitive world.