Presidential Elections In Belarus: Lukashenko And The Art Of Balancing Relations Between East And West – Analysis
By IFIMES
Belarus will hold its presidential elections on 26 January 2025. According to the Belarusian Constitution, the president is elected for a five-year term. Under the electoral law, any citizen of Belarus born in the country, who is at least 35 years old, and has resided continuously in the Republic of Belarus for at least ten years prior to the elections, is eligible to run for president. Candidates must not have a criminal record. Presidential candidates are nominated by citizens of Belarus, provided they secure at least 100,000 signatures from eligible voters. The nomination process is conducted by initiative groups of citizens, comprising at least 100 members.
The presidential elections are considered valid if more than 50% of all citizens of the Republic of Belarus registered on the electoral roll participate in the voting process. A candidate is elected president if they receive over 50% of the votes cast during the election[2].
The Central Election Commission (CEC) has registered five candidates for the upcoming seventh presidential elections. These include the incumbent Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko; the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus Oleg Gaidukevich, chairman of the Republican Party of Labour and Justice Alexander Khizhnyak, private entrepreneur Anna Kanopatskaya, and the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Belarus Sergei Syrankov. After verifying the authenticity and accuracy of the collected signatures, the nominees were officially confirmed as candidates.
According to data from the Central Election Commission, Lukashenko’s candidacy secured over 2.5 million supporting signatures, while the other candidates collected just over 100,000 signatures each. Igor Karpenko, chairman of the Central Election Commission, stated that 93 international observers have been accredited to monitor the presidential elections, along with 951 national observers in regional commissions. From 1 January 2025, the electoral process entered the pre-election campaign phase. The number of registered voters as of 25 February 2024 stands at 6,825,985.
Presidential elections 2020
The outcome of the presidential elections held in early August 2020, in which Lukashenko won by a large majority, intensified tensions with the domestic opposition, backed by Western powers. This led to several thousand protesters gathering at Independence Square, facing the seat of the Belarusian government, in a manner reminiscent of the so-called “colour revolutions” in many former Soviet republics at the beginning of the 21st century.
At the same time, Lukashenko’s relations with Moscow were strained following the detention of 32 Russian nationals and one Belarusian citizen, accused of plotting to destabilise Belarus and overthrow his government. While Moscow awaited the release of its citizens, early signs of a “colour revolution” began to emerge, resembling the one in Ukraine in early 2014.
Western countries issued threats and attempted to intimidate Lukashenko, warning him of sanctions and isolation. Some Western governments, primarily France, Germany, and Poland, went as far as demanding a repeat of the presidential elections.
The demonstrations escalated into violence between some protesters and security forces, leading to the arrest of hundreds of demonstrators. In the streets of Minsk, vehicles driven by protesters ran over police officers, resulting in the deaths of nine security personnel—an unprecedented event in the history of “colour revolutions.”
Although Lukashenko took the initiative to apologise to protesters, called on the Minister of Internal Affairs to take responsibility for failing to adhere to directives on the peaceful handling of demonstrators, and ordered the immediate release of all detainees, the unrest persisted. Russian state media joined the campaign against the Belarusian government, airing footage of violence by Belarusian security forces and their excessive breaches of the rights and safety of ordinary citizens uninvolved in the protests. This fuelled growing dissatisfaction and outrage among political and social circles both within Belarus and internationally.
Disturbing scenes from the bloody demonstrations were featured on the programme Solovyov Live (Соловьёв Live), hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, a figure closely aligned with the Kremlin. Solovyov claimed that Belarusian security forces would not have resorted to violent treatment of helpless youth, women, and the elderly without the approval and explicit directives of the state leadership. This, he speculated, might partly explain the violent actions of some protesters. In an effort to present a balanced view, Solovyov also aired footage of armed clashes between security forces and certain protesters. These individuals displayed combat skills and street-fighting experience, suggesting they had been trained and prepared in advance, likely under instructions from a “third party” that manipulated the peaceful protests, turning them into violence and bloodshed.
Moscow scaled back its unconditional support for the government in Minsk, permitting Kremlin-affiliated commentators to criticise and condemn Lukashenko’s handling of his citizens. He was accused of betraying Russian interests, including his refusal to recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia after the 2008 armed conflict. His refusal to acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, citing strict adherence to the UN Charter and international law, heightened the pressure on him to change his stance.
Facing intense pressure from the West and a coordinated Russian campaign against the Minsk government, President Lukashenko decided to release the detained Russian members of the Wagner Group. The president realised the consequences of his policy of prioritising closer ties with the West over Russia. Analysts believe that Lukashenko has always been skilled at balancing relations between East and West to safeguard Belarus’s independence.
Opposition without a leader
Belarus’s political opposition was effectively without leadership, with no one ready to enter into dialogue with the government within a political framework that could serve as a roadmap for managing the crisis and moving towards negotiations with the current president. Observers pointed to the incompetence of opposition presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, whom opposition supporters claimed won approximately 70-75% of the votes, while official results announced by the Central Election Commission indicated that she secured just over 10%.
Tsikhanouskaya urged her supporters to stay off the streets and remain calm[3] before fleeing to neighbouring Lithuania, where she proclaimed the “need for new elections in Belarus.” From Lithuania, she declared that she would not concede defeat and announced the start of consultations to form a so-called Coordination Council[4], which she stated was intended to facilitate a transfer of power in the country.
Tsikhanouskaya reiterated her willingness to engage in dialogue with the authorities, provided that all individuals detained during the protests are released and those responsible for ordering crackdowns and shootings at protesters are held accountable. Simultaneously, she called on the international community and European nations to assist in facilitating such dialogue. Meanwhile, protesters on the streets of Minsk escalated their demands, calling for Lukashenko’s resignation.
The Russian perspective on the 2020 elections
Alexander Lukashenko received congratulations from several key allies, including China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a diplomatically lukewarm congratulatory message, characterised by generic phrases that emphasised hopes for the continued strengthening of bilateral relations across all areas, as well as support for Belarus’s cooperation within Eurasian organisations and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which links Belarus with Russia and several former Soviet states in matters of security and defence.
Russia feared losing Belarus in the same manner it lost Ukraine after the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014. In response to the reconciliation initiative proposed by the Belarusian president, Russia acted swiftly to mitigate the risk of the revolution taking a direction detrimental to its interests, as had occurred in Ukraine.
Public discontent over the Covid-19 pandemic
The demonstrations in Minsk and the ensuing political crisis after the presidential elections were essentially rooted in an economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Economic growth fell below 5%, while unemployment rose from its previous level of around 4%. Relations with the Russian Federation were further strained by Alexander Lukashenko’s demands for Moscow to increase transit fees for pipelines, oil, and goods bound for Europe (Poland and Germany), a request that Russia rejected.
Belarus adopted a completely different approach to the Covid-19 pandemic compared to the rest of Europe, including its closest neighbours, Russia and Ukraine. While Ukraine implemented a state of emergency in Kyiv and other regions, and Russia closed schools, cancelled group events, and suspended domestic and international flights, daily life in Belarus continued unaffected, as if nothing had happened. President Lukashenko maintained that there was no need for his country to adopt preventive measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus. “Such things happen, but the most important thing is not to panic!” Lukashenko declared.
Constructive opposition – a matter of national interest
Opposition is a vital component of any democratic society, tasked with monitoring government policies with the aim of improving them or highlighting certain shortcomings and errors that may arise in the management of public affairs by the executive branch. Constructive opposition is a legitimate right and a cornerstone of democracy. Protests and the peaceful expression of views and demands are democratic practices universally recognised in democratic systems around the world.
Genuine and constructive opposition plays a constitutional role and is accountable solely to the electorate, and should remain free from the influence of external factors that are viewed unfavourably by Belarusian citizens. It represents the essence of democracy and provides a strong foundation for safeguarding the state within the framework of the constitution and the law, while also reinforcing other state institutions. A clear distinction must be drawn between constructive opposition, which seeks to address and rectify mistakes for the benefit of the nation and its citizens, and destructive opposition, which leverages errors to destabilise security and stability, pushing the state into a spiral of violence and chaos.
Portrait of the current president
The current president, Alexander Lukashenko, has held power for 30 years, ascending to office in 1994 amidst the turmoil following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Early in his presidency and throughout his tenure, he sought to preserve what remained of the state institutions inherited from the USSR. He succeeded in keeping much of the industrial sector under state control and consistently opposed any foreign interference in the country’s domestic affairs. His relations with Russia have always fluctuated, while he simultaneously worked to establish normal relations with the West and NATO.
Lukashenko’s professional life has gone through numerous stages, taking him from a farmer and villager to a politician and president, and eventually to a leader whom many in both the West and the East wish to remove from power. Yet, each time, he manages to thwart these efforts and maintain his hold on power.
In an October 2021 interview with Matthew Chance, a journalist from the American television network CNN, Lukashenko was asked whether he believed there would be another president of Belarus. Lukashenko replied, “Matthew, I am not going to be president until I die. If you and your patrons in the West, wherever they are, stop interfering in our situation, and we can be calm and confident as a sovereign independent nation and a people who deserve to be independent and sovereign, believe me, everything will happen sooner than you think. But if you dare to interfere in our affairs again, as in 2020, it will be bad.”[5]
Analysts struggle to reconcile the duality of a president who claims he wants to remain in power to resist Russian aspirations to annex Belarus and Western interference in its internal affairs, yet is also portrayed as a dictator who must be removed and whose legitimacy is denied. The West has never criticised other leaders of former Soviet states, such as Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev or Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev, among others.
The question is: Is Lukashenko a dictator or a patriot?
A famous saying goes: “No human being embodies absolute good or absolute evil; instead, every person carries a blend of both, in varying degrees.” This reflection may well be the most accurate description of any individual, including Lukashenko.
It is an undeniable fact that not all nations are prepared to adopt and implement the Western model of democracy. This model is often incompatible with countries that have distinct cultures, traditions, and unique socio-political developments. The success of a specific democratic model in the United States or Germany does not imply that it should be imposed, generalised, or exported to all countries. Each nation has its own democratic framework, rooted in its traditions, historical experiences, and national values. The painful aftermath of the Arab Spring still demonstrates this, where, instead of democracy, anarchy unfolded in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and the ensuing chaos and lawlessness even led to the creation of the terrorist quasi-state ISIS as a direct consequence.
New hopes pinned on President Trump’s policies
The new American administration under Donald Trump could introduce changes and take concrete steps in US-Belarus relations. From the American perspective, Belarus is likely to remain within Russia’s sphere of influence. Rather than focusing on severing Minsk-Moscow ties, efforts may shift toward containing and reducing Russian influence in Belarus. As a result, the US stance toward Belarus and the potential easing or tightening of sanctions will most likely depend on US-Russia relations. Criticism of the Belarusian authorities for human rights violations is likely to continue, albeit in a softer tone and remain largely declarative.
Belarus’s pro-Western opposition fears that support from the United States may diminish. It is quite likely that the new American administration will delegate the responsibility for backing Belarus’s pro-Western opposition to the European Union.
The Trump administration is likely to prioritise enhancing dialogue with Russia to address geopolitical challenges, such as countering Chinese influence, potentially shifting its approach from confrontation to cooperation. Under this scenario, Belarus might expect certain diplomatic concessions from Washington, including visits by senior US officials, similar to those during Trump’s first term. High-profile visits, such as those of National Security Advisor John Bolton on 29 August 2019 and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on 1 February 2020, could be repeated in the near future as part of efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Additional positive signs of a potential easing in US-Russia relations have emerged from Washington with Trump’s appointment of Keith Kellogg, a former National Security Advisor and retired US Army Lieutenant General, as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg’s focus will be on ending the war in Ukraine, and he advocates for tough negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine to achieve this goal.
In an interview with Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk on 13 August 2024, US President Donald Trump commended the authoritarian leaders of Russia, China, and North Korea, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as “at the peak of their game.”
While acknowledging their controversial practices, Trump remarked that, despite often being labelled as dictators, these leaders demonstrate a profound love for their nations, albeit “a different kind of love.”[6]
[1] IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] The Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: https://rec.gov.by/uploads/folderForLinks/about-prb-eng.pdf
[3] After Vote That Many Called Rigged, Challenger to Belarus Leader Leaves Ms. Tikhanovskaya read from a prepared text calling on Belarusians not to resist the police or to protest in public squares in order “not to put your lives at risk. (…) I made this decision absolutely independently.” Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/world/europe/belarus-election-Svetlana-Tikhanovskaya.html
[4] The Coordination Council, initially known as the Coordination Council for Ensuring the Transfer of Power, is a non-governmental body established by presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to facilitate a democratic transfer of power in Belarus. The Council, formed during the 2020 Belarusian protests in response to the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, originally comprised 64 key members (as of 13 February 2021, it had a 7-member presidium). Available at: https://archive.ph/TecYz
[5] Transcript: CNN interview with Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/europe/belarus-lukashenko-interview-transcript/index.html
[6] Trump-Musk interview. Available at: https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/trump-musk-interview-mocking-climate-change-to-mass-deportations-details-124081300574_1.html