Navigating Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan In A Post-Coup Era – Analysis

By Phyo Thura Aung

Myanmar’s progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP) has been set back by political instability, economic challenges, and environmental degradation following the 2021 military coup. 

Key Takeaways:

1. Myanmar’s political instability, worsened by the military coup and escalating conflict, has undermined progress in governance and peace-building efforts, making MSDP Goal 1 (peace and stability) unattainable.

2. The coup has significantly weakened Myanmar’s economy, with declining GDP, rising food insecurity, and restricted trade, creating substantial barriers to achieving MSDP Goals 2 (economic stability), 3 (job creation), and 4 (Human Resources & Social Development).

3. The military and other EAOs’ exploitation of natural resources has caused severe environmental degradation, while limited resources have constrained sustainable conservation efforts, jeopardizing progress on MSDP Goal 5 (environmental sustainability).

Introduction

Myanmar, a developing country, approved the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP) in 2018 to guide its efforts toward achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using 2017 as a baseline, Myanmar achieved notable progress across various SDG sectors during 2018 and 2019. However, in 2020, numerous challenges and crises severely hindered its progress. The country now ranks 120th out of 166, with stagnating progress, data gaps, and declining trends in the peace and environmental sectors. Only slight improvements have been observed in SDG Goals 1, 6, 8, 9, and 12, reflecting significant areas for improvement in government management and leadership.

1. Governance Sector

1.1 State Administration Council (SAC)

Since the military coup in 2021, the State Administration Council (SAC) has forcibly seized power, overturning the democratically elected government and violating agreements with Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). The military has conducted violent campaigns against civilians and EAOs, deploying bombs, airstrikes, and other heavy weaponry. These actions have caused significant loss of life, widespread property destruction, and displaced over three million people, creating a nationwide crisis of internally displaced persons (IDPs).

Attempting to obscure these realities, the military organized a superficial “national peace forum” in Nay Pyi Taw involving select EAOs allied with the regime. This forum failed to address critical peace issues or halt military aggression. Reports from ISP Myanmar indicate over 7,000 airstrikes affecting more than 156 townships since the coup, directly undermining MSDP Goal 1, which emphasizes peace and stability as foundations for national development.

As a result, most EAOs have withdrawn from the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Only a coalition of seven EAOs remains engaged with the military, underscoring a significant breakdown in trust and cooperation. This failure highlights the regime’s inability to honor commitments or foster sustainable peace.

1.2 National Unity Government (NUG)

In response to the military coup, the National Unity Government (NUG) was established in April 2021 by elected representatives from the 2020 general election. Its primary objectives are to dismantle military rule, restore democracy, and transition Myanmar to a civilian-led federal system.

The NUG has formed the People’s Defense Force (PDF) to resist the military junta, protect civilians, and coordinate armed resistance. The PDF collaborates with EAOs such as the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), reflecting efforts to build a united front despite resource limitations and differing strategies among resistance groups.

Seeking international recognition and support, the NUG has gained backing from entities like the French Senate, though global recognition still needs to be improved. The NUG continues diplomatic efforts to expose the junta’s human rights violations while advocating for democracy and inclusivity, aligning with MSDP goals.

1.3 Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)

Numerous EAOs have resumed armed resistance against the military since the coup, withdrawing from the NCA in response to the regime’s actions. Notably, prominent groups such as the Karen National Union (KNU), Chin National Front (CNF), and All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF) have denounced the coup and re-engaged in combat, asserting that the military’s actions nullified the NCA.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTA) – comprising the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – launched “Operation 1027” in October 2023. This offensive has significantly reshaped post-coup conflict dynamics, capturing substantial territory and highlighting the growing strength of EAOs.

While these developments demonstrate increased EAO resistance capabilities, the military retains control over critical urban areas and strategic locations, ensuring ongoing conflict. Airstrikes, forced conscription, and external influences like China’s strategic interests complicate the conflict further. Despite territorial gains by PDFs and EAOs, fragmented governance and lack of coordination with the NUG hinder a cohesive resistance.

2. Socioeconomic Sector

2.1 State Administration Council (SAC)

The military coup triggered profound economic and social instability. Myanmar’s GDP has plummeted from approximately $78 billion in 2020 to $64 billion in 2023, marking an 18% contraction. This decline is attributed to reduced foreign investment, trade disruptions, and restrictive policies.

In May 2024, the Ministry of Commerce’s Department of Trade issued measures tightening requirements for import licenses, enforcing legal actions against goods arriving without the necessary documentation. These policies have disrupted supply chains and contributed to inflation. Consequently, the prices of essential goods have surged, with data indicating that grocery prices have tripled compared to 2020. Meanwhile, wages remain stagnant, exacerbating food insecurity and poverty. International businesses withdrawing from Myanmar have led to widespread job losses, shrinking the formal economy. These trends signal failure in achieving MSDP Goals 2 (Economic Stability), 3 (Job Creation), and 4 (Human Resources & Social Development).

2.2 National Unity Government (NUG)

Despite limited resources, the NUG has implemented alternative tax systems to generate revenue in areas under its control. These funds are used to sustain essential public services and stabilize communities. The NUG collaborates with EAOs and local networks to facilitate trade and resource-sharing, mitigating the junta’s economic disruptions.

The NUG also addresses the needs of IDPs, coordinating aid to alleviate starvation and economic deprivation. According to UNHCR, international funding still needs to be increased, with only 32% of humanitarian aid needs met by September 2024. These efforts, though constrained, align with MSDP goals and reflect attempts to foster economic resilience.

2.3 Role of CSOs, NGOs, and INGOs

Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), NGOs, and UN agencies are crucial in responding to humanitarian and economic crises. CSOs focus on grassroots support, while NGOs like the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT) assist with food security and social protection. However, restricted access to conflict zones, limited funding, and military-imposed constraints hinder their efforts.

International agencies such as OCHA, UNHCR, and WFP provide essential aid, though their operations face significant funding gaps. By September 2024, only 32% of OCHA’s $1 billion funding appeal had been met, leaving millions without sufficient assistance. The inability of humanitarian organizations to fully address the crisis exacerbates economic instability, joblessness, and the failure to recover economically, significant obstacles to fulfilling these MSDP goals.

3. Environmental Sector

3.1 State Administration Council (SAC)

Since the coup, the military has prioritized resource extraction over environmental sustainability, contributing to widespread deforestation and biodiversity loss. As of the 2024 environmental report, Myanmar ranks 177 globally, with a 27.1% score mentioning a failure to comply with the MSDP plan. Furthermore, projects like the Myitsone hydroelectric dam, previously halted due to environmental concerns, are being reconsidered under the junta, threatening ecosystems and displacing communities significantly, threatening more than 5 million people living in low-lying and coastal regions. These actions prioritize short-term economic gains, exacerbating environmental degradation and undermining MSDP objectives. According to Global Forest Watch, from 2002 to 2023, deforestation in Myanmar has intensified, with satellite data revealing that 16% of the country’s total tree cover was lost during this period. This has led to the displacement of thousands of people and significantly undermined livelihoods in the affected regions.

3.2 National Unity Government (NUG)

The NUG emphasizes sustainable resource management, empowering local communities through its Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC). Initiatives such as mangrove restoration projects in the Irrawaddy Delta align with MSDP Goals 4 and 5. However, ongoing conflict limits measurable outcomes.

3.3 Role of CSOs, NGOs, and INGOs

Local CSOs, such as the Myanmar Environmental Rehabilitation and Conservation Network (MERN), focus on forest conservation, biodiversity, and climate resilience, including mangrove restoration in the Irrawaddy Delta. Despite military-imposed restrictions, these organizations continue rehabilitating ecosystems and raising environmental awareness. However, illegal logging and resource exploitation by the military and some EAOs complicate their work.

International agencies like UNDP and WWF support Myanmar’s environmental policies. The UNDP has assisted in promoting Myanmar’s National Environmental Policy, while WWF has raised awareness about deforestation and illegal resource extraction. Agencies like IUCN provide technical support for conservation projects and sustainable practices. Despite their efforts, the ongoing conflict and instability hinder progress toward the environmental goals of the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP), including land degradation and sustainable resource use.

Case studies of affected communities, such as those displaced by the Myitsone Dam, should be integrated to improve environmental governance. More vital coordination between CSOs, INGOs, and global partnerships is essential to align efforts with the MSDP and address Myanmar’s role in regional climate policies.

Conclusion

Myanmar’s ongoing conflict and political instability have severely impacted its progress in governance, socioeconomic stability, and environmental sustainability. While efforts by the NUG, EAOs, and civil society provide some hope, the challenges posed by the military regime and some EAOs, resource limitations, and international funding gaps highlight the urgency for coordinated action to realign with the MSDP and achieve sustainable development.

The following actions need to be performed immediately to address these challenges effectively.

1. International backing for humanitarian efforts must be enhanced, empowering local CSOs, UN agencies, and NGOs to address urgent needs, particularly for displaced populations.

2. Greater diplomatic pressure is needed on Myanmar’s military regime and their affiliated EAOs to encourage peace talks and restore democratic governance. 

3. Including civil society from the NUG control area in policymaking will ensure local voices are heard and pave the way for sustainable peace.

4. New policies should curb environmental damage caused by the military’s resource exploitation and advocate for sustainable, community-led conservation initiatives in NUG and EAO control areas such as Kachin and Karen States.

5. Resolving Myanmar’s ethnic and political tensions through strengthened conflict resolution and peace-building mechanisms will be crucial for sustainable progress.

By addressing these areas, Myanmar can work toward rebuilding a stable, democratic, and sustainable future while making meaningful strides toward achieving its SDGs and MSDP objectives.

About the author:

• Phyo Thura Aung is a Research Assistant at the Sustainability Lab of the Shwetaungthagathu Reform Initiative Centre (SRIc). He passionately advocates for social change in Myanmar while advancing his academic journey in Vietnam. 
• Harry Myo Lin contributed to the peer review process as an external reviewer.

Source: This article was published at The Sabai Times