Pakistan: Unending Carnage In Balochistan – Analysis
By SATP
By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
On January 8, 2025, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) cadres seized control of the whole of Zehri town in the Khuzdar District of Balochistan for almost eight hours, and set fire to multiple Government buildings, including a Levies Force station, NADRA and municipal committee offices and a bank.
According to local officials, around 80 cadres entered the area at about 11pm from the nearby mountains, deploying armed cadres around the Bazaar and other locations of Zehri town. Cadres set up checkpoints around the Zehri Bazaar and pickets on the mountains to resist any action from Security Forces (SFs). The cadres stormed the Levies Thana (Police Station), took the personnel hostage, ransacked the records, and set the building on fire, damaging part of the structure, furniture and other items. The cadres later attacked a private bank branch, took the staff hostage and looted over PKR 90 million from the strong room.
“They remained in the area for at least eight hours,” Kalat Division Commissioner Naeem Khan Bazai later disclosed, adding that when SFs arrived and launched an operation, the cadres escaped, taking two Levies vehicles with them. The cadres also took away 20 AK-47 rifles, 4,000 rounds of ammunition and 10 motorcycles. Via its media channel Hakkal, BLA subsequently claimed responsibility. According to BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch, the group took full control of Zehri for more than ten hours, seized Government institutions and set fire to the local Police Station. According to the group, the operation served as a “military exercise” ahead of the second phase of ‘Operation Herof’ (Operation Dark Storm).
On January 6, 2025, five soldiers were killed and several others sustained injuries in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack on a military convoy in the Poganzan area of the Zamuran tehsil (revenue unit) in Kech District. BLA claimed responsibility for the attack, saying, it targeted a convoy delivering supplies to the Sangwan post.
On January 4, 2025, at least 12 people, including 11 Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, were killed while another 56, including children, suffered injuries when a suicide bomber rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into a passenger coach in the New Behman area on the outskirts of Turbat town in the Kech District of Balochistan. The passenger coach, which was taking FC personnel from Karachi to Turbat, was part of a convoy of seven buses and six escort vehicles. Senior Superintendent of Police (Serious Crimes) Zohaib Mohsin, who hails from Turbat and was on leave, also sustained injuries in the blast as he was passing through the area along with his family in his vehicle. The official stated that 53 people were on the targeted bus, mostly FC personnel, and that another two FC vehicles were also damaged.
While claiming responsibility for the attack on its media channel Hakkal, BLA stated its Majeed Brigade carried out the blast in which it claimed 47 personnel were killed and more than 30 sustained injuries. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch said the convoy included personnel from MI 309, FC SIU, FC 117 Wing, FC 326 Wing, FC 81 Wing, and retired Army Captain Zohaib Mohsin, who was serving as Turbat Senior Superintendent of Police (Serious Crimes). In the statement, BLA accused Pakistani forces of “torturing innocent Baloch people, opening fire, and forcibly disappearing many individuals. This attack is a clear message that the land of Balochistan will never be safe for the occupying state.”
In the first 12 days of the current year, Balochistan has recorded at least 19 Security Force (SF) fatalities in five terrorism-related incidents, so far (data till January 12, 2025), according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). During the corresponding period of 2024, the province had recorded eight SF fatalities in two terrorism-related incidents. Through 2024, 315 SF fatalities were recorded in the province, a rise of 69.35 per cent over year 2023, at 186 SF fatalities. In terms of SF fatalities, the 2024 tally was the highest since the SATP database started documenting fatalities in Pakistan. The preceding high in the province was 202 in 2022.
The overall fatalities in Balochistan in 2024 totalled 774 (273 civilians, 315 SF personnel and 186 terrorists) in 250 incidents of killing, as against 471 such fatalities (160 civilians, 186 SF personnel, and 125 terrorists) in 169 such incidents in 2023, registering an increase of 64.33 per cent. The number of deaths was the highest in over a decade. 975 fatalities were recorded in the province in 2013.
Incidents of killing increased from 169 in 2023 to 250 in 2024. Such incidents have been on an ascending trend since 2021. There were 148 such incidents in 2016, and dropped to 82 in 2017, 69 in 2018 and 48 in 2019, spiking to 76 in 2020, 111 in 2021, 160 in 2022 and 169 in 2023. Similarly, major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased from 52 in 2023 to 74 in 2024, and the resultant fatalities from 299 to 539. The number of explosions and resultant fatalities increased from 92 and 162, respectively, in 2023, to 203 and 279, respectively, in 2024. Though the number of suicide attacks increased from five in 2023 to six in 2024, the resultant fatalities decreased in 2024 to 65, from 70 in 2023. The most lethal suicide attacks of 2024 included:
November 9: 31 persons, including 17 SFs personnel, were killed and more than 60, including 46 SF personnel, sustained injuries, when a suicide bomber blew himself up near the ticket counter of the Quetta Railway Station. The Majeed Brigade of BLA claimed responsibility for the attack.
February 7: At least 17 people were killed and 31 sustained injuries in a suicide attack at the campaign office of Asfandyar Kakar, an independent candidate of PB-47 for Balochistan Assembly, in the Khanozai Union Council of Pishin District.
January 29: Nine terrorists including three suicide bombers, four SFs personnel and two civilians were killed while four others, including two SF personnel and one child, sustained injuries when BLA cadres lunched three “coordinated attacks” on the Frontier Corps Headquarters, Railway Station and District Jail in the Mach town of Kachhi District. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed responsibility of the attack.
Even as all parameters of violence indicate that the overall security situation in Balochistan has deteriorated significantly in 2024, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killing of ethnic Baloch by the security apparatus remain rampant. According to the Human Rights Commission of Balochistan (HRCB)’s preliminary report of January 6, 2025, on human rights violations in 2024, at least 801 cases of enforced disappearances were reported in Balochistan. The majority (99.88 per cent) of victims were male, with the Frontier Corps (FC) responsible for 72.03 per cent of the cases. House raids were the most common mode of abduction. According to the report, these incidents primarily target Baloch students, political activists, human rights workers, and ordinary citizens. Among the victims, students represented a significant proportion. The report claims that SFs, intelligence agencies, and their affiliated local militias – known as ‘death squads’ – were directly involved in these human rights abuses.
Authorities in Balochistan as well as at the Federal level have long adopted the policy of suppressing peaceful political and public protests with an iron hand. For years, protesting families of the victims of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings have faced similar patterns of violence by the security establishment.
The Balochistan Government on September 9 put the names of a large number of people on the Fourth Schedule under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA). Including a name in the Fourth Schedule means the person concerned has been proscribed. A Home Department official, while seeking anonymity, confirmed that dozens of names had been added in the Fourth Schedule, with around 300 people finalised for the list. “As many as 130 people belong to Quetta, who have been included in the Fourth Schedule,” he disclosed. National Party (NP) President Dr. Malik Baloch claimed that 3,000 people were to be included in the Fourth Schedule.
State sponsored enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings have led to a spiral of retaliatory attacks and violence targeting the SFs and state establishments in the province, by Baloch insurgents. Civilians, especially State-backed local militia members, locally known as ‘death squad’, believed to be siding with the state machinery, have also been targeted. In this environment of chaos, Islamist terrorist groups have also thrived and even joined the Baloch groups. The major active Baloch insurgent groups include the Baloch National Army (BNA), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA).
According to a January 6 report in The Balochistan Post, the Baloch insurgent groups collectively carried out 938 attacks, resulting in over 1,002 deaths, 689 persons injured, and at least 546 instances of property damage in 2024. Their operations spanned 25 Districts and covered 327 areas. Additionally, 76 Baloch insurgents were reported killed during these operations. Compared to 2023, the total number of attacks increased by 53 per cent, while reported fatalities rose by a staggering 80 per cent, indicating a heightened intensity in the insurgency. When compared to 2023, the year 2024 marked a significant escalation in the armed conflict in Balochistan. The number of attacks, according to the report, increased from 612 in 2023 to 938 in 2024, while fatalities surged from 557-plus to over 1,002. Cases of injury also rose sharply, from 423-plus to 689, and incidents of property loss increased from 340 to 546. The areas of operation expanded from 134 locations in 26 Districts to 327 locations across 25 Districts. The data highlights the growing reach and operational capacity of Baloch insurgent groups, despite continued counter-insurgency efforts by the State.
According to SATP data, the BLA remained the most active group in 2024, carrying out 302 attacks that reportedly led to over 580 fatalities and more than 370 persons injured, and at least 171 incidents of property damage. The group claimed to operate across 240 areas in 21 districts, demonstrating an extensive geographic reach and operational capacity. BLA lost at least 52 cadres during the year – many of them belonging to the Majeed Brigade, known for its high-profile suicide operations. The BLA claimed 37 cadres of the Majeed Brigade carried out six major operations in 2024, allegedly inflicting significant losses among SFs.
BLF followed BLA in terms of numbers, executing 284 attacks in 2024, maintaining its prominence as one of the most active groups in the region. These attacks led to over 280 fatalities and over 167 persons injured, with property losses reported in 90 attacks. The group reported activity in 15 Districts and 189 areas, targeting both urban and rural locations. Despite its widespread activities, BLF reported comparatively lower fighter losses, with 16 cadres killed during the year.
Baloch Raj Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), a coalition of “pro-independence” armed groups, conducted 204 attacks in 2024, that reportedly resulted in at least 41 fatalities and over 30 persons injured. BRAS reported 190 cases of property damage, with activities spanning 16 Districts and 189 areas. Other insurgent groups – including BRG, BRA, and UBA – collectively carried out 148 attacks in 2024. These operations caused 101 fatalities, 122 persons wounded, and 95 cases of property damage. While operating on a smaller scale, these groups remained active in 13 Districts and 103 areas, with a focus on targeting infrastructure and state assets.
Apart from SFs, ‘non-locals’, especially persons of Punjabi ethnicity who are thought to be Army collaborators, faced the wrath of the Baloch insurgents. These non-locals allegedly work as spies for SFs, and are also believed to be part of a systematic effort to deny work and benefits to the Baloch population. According to partial data compiled by the SATP, a total of 309 non-locals have been killed in Balochistan since August 26, 2006, (data till December 31, 2024). Of these, 254 were Punjabis. The other non-locals who fell to the ethnic collateral damage included 38 Sindhis. The major attack on Punjabis in 2024 was in the morning of August 26, when 24 Punjabi travellers were killed in the Rarasham area of Musakhail District in Balochistan, when BLA cadres offloaded passengers from trucks and buses and shot them after checking their identities.
This anti-Punjabi and anti-non-local sentiment among Baloch insurgent groups has been brewing since the military action in which Nawab Akbar Bugti, leader of the Bugti tribe and President of the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP), was killed in a military operation in the Chalgri area of the Bhamboor Hills of Dera Bugti District, on August 26, 2006. Further, many ‘outsiders’ are engaged on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects and are targeted because Baloch insurgents fear that CPEC will convert the Baloch people into minorities in their own homeland. Indeed, CPEC projects principally employ workers brought in from outside the province, overwhelmingly from Punjab.
The CPEC projects in the province have been a major bone of contention between the Pakistani state and Baloch insurgents. Baloch resentment towards CPEC dates back to its inception in 2013, and is based on the widespread belief among both the civilian population and insurgents, that CPEC is part of a ‘strategic design’ by China to loot the resources of the province. The USD 62 billion CPEC is a massive series of projects that includes a network of highways, railways and energy infrastructure, spanning the entire country. CPEC is a flagship project in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Baloch groups have carried out attacks directly targeting Chinese nationals engaged in economic activities. According to partial data compiled by SATP, since July 19, 2007, at least 20 attacks directly targeting Chinese nationals have been recorded in Pakistan (15 in Balochistan, three in Sindh and two in KP), resulting in 88 deaths (data till December 31, 2024). The dead included 19 Chinese nationals, 13 Pakistani SF personnel, 42 Pakistani civilians and 14 attackers. Another, 66 persons, including six Chinese nationals, were injured in these attacks. Most recently, BLA’s Majeed Brigade orchestrated a vehicle-borne suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers on a road near the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, in the night of October 6, 2024, in which three Chinese engineers were killed and 13 persons sustained injuries.
As part of efforts to stem the tide of growing unrest in Balochistan, the Federal Government was expected to give the go-ahead to a proposal for the establishment of “internment centres” for terrorism suspects in the province. According to a September 8 media report, the Government decided to give special powers to law-enforcement authorities as well as the Army, for the preventive detention of terrorism suspects for three months without a First Information Report (FIR) or court orders. Those powers had a sunset clause of two years. The Government has now decided to introduce similar amendments to the ATA, 1997, to give the special powers to law-enforcement agencies for Balochistan.
While the violence in the province has social and developmental causes, instead of exploring possibilities of dealing with the Baloch insurgency through constructive measures such as peace-talks, negotiations or economic and relief measures, the Pakistan establishment has adamantly followed a ruthless approach of suppression of the Baloch people. On August 22, 2024, the Government approved PKR 60 billion to carry out Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (Commitment for Stability) to fight militancy in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Central Apex Committee on the National Action Plan (NAP), chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, launched the Army Operation Azm-e-Istehkam on June 22. In response, the BLA-led BRAS, an umbrella organization of Baloch ‘pro-independence’ groups, issued a statement on July 8, 2024, against Pakistan’s military campaign. In a media release, BRAS ‘spokesperson’ Baloch Khan condemned the operation as a blatant intensification of the ongoing ‘genocide’ against the Baloch people. He asserted that BRAS and its allied organizations were prepared to defend their land and people against any form of military action, promising to defeat the ‘invading’ forces.
While the Baloch people in general and insurgents in particular has been resisting and fighting years of neglect and injustice by the Pakistani States, Islamabad’s policy of suppression and neglect of the demands and protests of the Baloch people remains unchanged. The use of extreme, often indiscriminate force, ‘disappearances’ and the targeting of people through ‘death squads’, have fed the anger of local populations, compounded further by skewed economic policies and a denial of benefits to the Baloch people of the various ‘developmental’ initiatives in the province, including CPEC. There is little reason to believe that Balochistan can escape the cycles of bloodshed and destruction that have afflicted the province for decades.
- Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management