Pashinyan Promotes New Ideology To Guide Armenia’s Geopolitical Transformation

(Eurasianet) — Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is pushing for an ideological transformation to establish what he calls “real Armenia.” To succeed, he will have to win a three-front fight to overcome opposition from Azerbaijan, Russia and a powerful bloc of domestic critics.

Having returned from a foreign tour that took him to Washington and Paris, Pashinyan answered questions in parliament on February 12 about his “Real Armenia” vision. The tenets of the ideology are still being fleshed out, he explained. But the broad outline is the promotion of a Westernized, democratized nation that has drawn a line on the past and is firmly fixed on forging a prosperous future.

The prime minister stated that a written platform for the Real Armenia concept would be finalized and published soon. Once published, he added, the government would launch an effort to sell the vision to the electorate. “From that point,” Pashinyan stated, referring to publication of the platform, “we must begin the formation and formulation of a consensus around the concept of ‘real Armenia.’”

Pashinyan told MPs that he has received assurances of support from US and French officials for what he is trying to accomplish, describing an impromptu meeting with US Vice President JD Vance in Washington in early February as “very important and very productive.” 

Parliament took immediate action on the real Armenia vision February 12, approving in its first reading a bill authorizing the government to seek European Union membership, a process that could take decades to accomplish.

The prime minister’s efforts to achieve an identity makeover for Armenia is rooted in the country’s decisive defeat to Azerbaijan in the Second Karabakh War in late 2023. The military disaster prompted the collapse of the country’s traditional strategic partnership with Russia, which many Armenians believe failed to fulfill security commitments to defend Armenian sovereignty. Since then, Pashinyan has sought to strengthen ties to US and European political, economic and security institutions, while striving to conclude a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Peace, Pashinyan holds, is a prerequisite for the formation of a prosperous domestic economy. The real Armenia concept seeks to tie all its policy goals together.

Pashinyan may have the backing of the United States and France, as well as many MPs, but how far he gets in pursuit of the real Armenia project is uncertain given the scope of opposition he faces from three directions.

Russia, Armenia’s main trade partner at present, is firmly opposed to the country’s efforts to move into the Western geopolitical camp, especially its pursuit of EU accession.

“We consider the West’s line in the South Caucasus to be absolutely destructive, because it is not aimed at stabilizing the situation in this strategically important region for Russia, but at trying to ‘contribute’ to inflicting a strategic defeat on us from this flank,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said in an interview published February 10 by the Russian outlet Izvestia.

Armenia remains a member of the Russia-dominated trade group, the Eurasian Economic Union, giving the Kremlin economic leverage over Yerevan. Following the Armenian parliament’s EU accession vote, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded by noting that Russian officials “proceed from the fact that Armenia continues to receive dividends from membership in the EAEU in the processes of Eurasian economic integration, and these dividends are more than obvious.”

Elsewhere, the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process that had until recently seemed tantalizingly close to reaching the finish line, now is moving in the wrong direction. Both sides have traded accusations of late that the other intends to restart armed conflict. And on February 13, Baku filed a new lawsuit in the International Court of Arbitration in the Hague, seeking to hold Armenia responsible for causing environmental damage in Karabakh. The issue of handling international court cases involving Armenia and Azerbaijan has been one of the points holding up finalization of a peace treaty.

Perhaps the most determined opposition to the real Armenia vision is coming from critics within Armenia and among Diaspora groups. A major source of discontent within these constituencies is Pashinyan’s willingness to recognize Azerbaijan’s lasting sovereignty over Karabakh.

“Pashinyan is trying to deprive Armenians of the right to even dream of restoring “historic Armenia” someday in the future,” stated a commentary published in late January by the Armenian Weekly, which is operated by Armenian Revolutionary Federation. “He naively thinks that by announcing that Armenia does not have any territorial demands against its neighboring countries, he will convince Azerbaijan to sign a meaningless peace treaty with Armenia.”

Pashinyan seems clear-eyed about the daunting obstacles standing in his way. In parliament, he said it will be up to Armenian voters to decide whether the “real Armenia” blueprint is fully implemented. “This ideology must be tested in the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2026,” Pashinyan told MPs.