NATO’s Geopolitical Expansion: Geostrategic Challenges of Russia – Analysis

Since its inception in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), has been actively broadening its sphere of influence. NATO’s origins can be traced back to the World War-II and consequently fallout in terms of the Cold War i.e., capitalism vs communism, when the same was worked as a bulwark against security and stability threats posed by the Soviet Union. 

Russia has long been suspicious of NATO’s intentions and has viewed the alliance’s expansion as a direct threat to regional and its national security. Thus, Russia has taken a number of measures to counter NATO’s expansion, including the buildup of its military capabilities and increased diplomatic engagements and efforts with its neighbouring countries. This article will explore the geostrategic challenges posed by Russia in the backdrop of NATO’s geopolitical expansion plans in 2023. It will provide an overview of NATO’s expansion in recent years and examine the current geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. 

NATO-Russia Relations: A See Saw Framework

The power play dynamics between NATO and Russia have been remained intricate and turbulent in the post-Cold War period. Both sides have participated in a sequence of actions and counter-reactions leading to collaborations to conflicts. NATO’s objective is to of foster stability and security in Europe and other regions is perceived by Russia as a direct challenge to its national security due to its opposition to NATO expansion. 

NATO and Russia have had a history of cooperation and conflict since the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the fall of the Soviet Union. The NATO and Russia formalized their relationship with the signing of the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1991, which laid the foundations of cooperation, dialogues, and consultations. But in the early 2000s, conflicts and tensions between NATO and Russia began to rise. Russia viewed NATO’s expansion into the Baltic and Polish republics as provocations and a threat to its national security. Russia was already wary of NATO’s intentions before the 1999 NATO-led intervention in Kosovo, which was not sanctioned by the UN Security Council. 

The current state of relations between NATO and Russia is being characterized by the notable strains and discords. NATO’s objective of fostering stability and security in Europe and other regions is perceived by Russia as a direct challenge to its national security, given its opposition to NATO geopolitical expansion particularly in the recent past. The incorporation of Crimea and the participation of Russia in the hostilities in eastern Ukraine have resulted in a marked decline in the rapport between NATO and Russia. The present state of relations between NATO and Russia is characterized by ambiguity and the possibility of instability, although there remains an opportunity for discussions, dialogues and collaboration.

The Rome Declaration, signed by NATO and Russia in 2002, was an attempt to improve relations between the two sides and to foster mutual trust. The 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and subsequent recognition of the independence of the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia further strained already tense relations. NATO strongly criticized Russia’s actions and halted any concrete cooperation with the country as a result. The NATO-Russia Strategic Concept, signed in 2010, outlined a framework for resuming cooperation between the both regions and identified areas of common interests. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine did little to improve already tense relations. NATO has taken several measures to bolster its defence and deter further Russian aggression in response to the latter’s aggressive behavior. The NATO has increased its military presence in Eastern Europe by sending more troops and more military equipment. The NATO has increased its naval presence and held military exercises in the Black Sea.

In response to NATO’s actions, Russia has increased its own military presence and military exercises in the region. Russia has also upgraded its military and created cutting-edge weaponry like the hypersonic missile.  However, due to the ongoing tensions between the two sides, this dialogue is currently restricted. NATO has made it clear that it is willing to talk to Russia, but only if Russia agrees to respect international law and NATO’s founding principles.

Genesis of NATO

The NATO is a military alliance consisting of 31 member states (29 European and 2 North American). The organization was established after World War-II to carry out the terms of the North Atlantic Treaty, which was signed on April 4, 1949, in Washington, DC. The NATO is a collective security system in which sovereign countries are mutually committed to defending one another from external aggression. During the Cold War, NATO served as a counterbalance to the Soviet Union’s influence. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the alliance continued to function and conduct military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa.

The North Atlantic Treaty was mostly remained dormant until the Korean War (1950-53) prompted the formation of NATO to put it into effect with an integrated military structure. This included the establishment of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in 1951, which adopted many of the Western Union’s military structures and plans, including agreements on standardizing equipment and agreements on stationing foreign military forces in European countries. The position of NATO Secretary General, was created in 1952. In the same year, Greece and Turkey were joined NATO. As a result of the London and Paris Conferences, West Germany was given permission to rearm after they joined NATO in May of 1955. This was a major factor in the formation of the Warsaw Pact, which was dominated by the Soviet Union and defined the two sides of the Cold War.

The European Revolutions (1989) prompted a strategic re-evaluation of NATO’s purpose, nature, tasks, and focus in the continent. East Germany joined the Federal Republic of Germany and the alliance in October 1990, and the alliance signed the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) with the Soviet Union in Paris in November 1990. It mandated specific military reductions across the continent, which continued after the Warsaw Pact collapsed in February 1991 and with the disintegration of the Soviet Union removed NATO’s de facto main adversary. Several Western leaders assured Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand further East. However, the Treaty on the Final Settlement with Regard to Germany, which was signed later that year, made no mention of the issue of eastward expansion.

Why NATO Expansion Eastwards 

Here, an important question is haunting, why NATO’s geopolitical expansion is towards East is taking place? To take answer of this question, one has to examine some geopolitical actions on part of Russia, some historical background and power play dynamics between Russia and European countries that were responsible for this geopolitical tension. Actions and counter-actions on part of both sides creating geopolitical upheavals in the regions. In the recent past, the annexation of Crimea on part of Russia provoked the NATO to take some actions in terms of geopolitical expansion towards East. In this view, the NATO leaders formally committed for the first time spending the equivalent of at least 2% of their GDP on defence by 2024 which was decided in the Wales Summit 2014.  NATO countries decided in 2016 to establish NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, which would deploy four multinational battalion-sized battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

There are certain reasons believed to be responsible for the Eastwards Expansion. The NATO has undergone multiple changes since its establishment, including its extension towards the Eastern region since the end Cold War and it is further concretized in the background of geopolitical upheavals in the East. Strategic considerations is one of the important rationales for Eastward expansion in order to deter Russian aggression. NATO is expanding its sphere of influence and created a security buffer zone around its member states. After the collapse of  Soviet Union, NATO expansion to the East was also seen as a stabilizing factor and force. NATO sought regional stability, democracy, and economic growth by providing security guarantees to the new member countries. In order to promote the Western values like democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, NATO is expanding towards the East. NATO expanded its membership to promote these values and create a more stabilized Europe. Realizing the security threats on part of Russia, NATO expansion to the East was seen as a way to prevent Russian domination. At last, it is argued that the expansion of NATO to the East was driven by strategic, economic, and political factors to promote stability, democracy, and economic growth in the region and prevent any potential conflict between Russia and Europe in general and with Eastern neighbours in particular.

NATO Geopolitical Expansion

The NATO was officially established with the signing of the Washington Treaty on April 4, 1949. Originally, it has only 12 members and since then, the group’s membership has grown to 31. Cold War has proved as a catalytic for the geopolitical expansion of the NATO and during the same period, the new four countries joined such as Greece (1952), Turkey (1952), West Germany (1955) and Spain in 1982. The post-Warsaw Pact states have also applied to join NATO soon after the Soviet Union’s disintegration. NATO issued the new guidelines for membership with individualized “Membership Action Plans” in the Washington Summit (1999), where Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic joined officially in the NATO. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined in 2004, Albania and Croatia in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020, all in accordance with these plans (1). 

The membership of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden had created a lot of geopolitical hue and cry. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland became the most recent country to join NATO on 4 April 2023.

Geopolitical Challenges before Russia

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia and the West have been at odds over NATO’s plans to expand Eastward. Russia sees NATO expansion as one of the threats to its national security and an infringement on its regional influence. The Russian leadership’s argument is that NATO moving closer to its borders is one of the most critical challenges in terms of security threats. This perception has led to increased tensions and a greater emphasis on military preparedness in Russia. In response, Russia has taken a number of measures to counter what it perceives to be its national security threats. These measures include increasing its presence in disputed territories, modernizing its nuclear arsenal, and expanding its military capabilities.

Another security threat for Russia is how the geopolitical presence and expansion of NATO has seriously impacted and changed the Russian relationships with its neighbouring countries. Countries like Ukraine and Georgia, have tried to get closer to the West. This has also caused problems with Russia, which sees these countries as part of its sphere of influence and apprehensive that they will be used as a base for military operations by the West. The expansion of NATO has also had a negative effects on Russia’s economy. The energy sector in particular has felt the effects of Western sanctions imposed in response to Russian actions in Ukraine. As a whole, NATO’s Eastward expansion has significantly impacted regional security and stability, and has been a major source of tension between Russia and the West. 

At last, it is concluded that the global security and stability are affected by the ongoing tensions between NATO and Russia. A military show between these two superpowers would have catastrophic effects on both the region and the rest of the world as well. Therefore, it is essential for both parties are required to initiate open dialogues at multilateral levels  and look for areas of agreement in order to prevent escalation and increase opportunities for cooperation. Understanding the concerns and interests of both sides is crucial for addressing the geostrategic challenges posed by NATO’s expansion. This calls for an all-encompassing and nuanced strategy that considers the relevant historical, cultural, and political contexts. Dialogue, confidence-building measures, and arms control agreements can also help increase openness and trust between parties.

Dr. Bawa Singh is an Associate Professor, Department of South and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India

References

NATO. (17 September, 2020). Relations with the Republic of North Macedonia (Archived). Accessed from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_48830.htm. Accessed on 14 April, 2023.