Pakistan–Afghanistan: Trade Over Turmoil – OpEd

In an age of gunfire and grievance, the quiet news that Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan surged by 64.48% in the first nine months of FY 2024–25 came as a welcome anomaly. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, this remarkable uptick in trade marks a rare positive turn in the otherwise fraught relationship between two uneasy neighbors bound by geography, history, and blood.

For decades, the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship has been reduced to a bleak ledger of mistrust: the rise of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Pakistan’s accusations of safe havens across the Durand Line, and Afghanistan’s resentment over Pakistan’s military interventions and border fencing. Yet, beneath this surface of strategic hostility, a quieter force is stirring—commerce.

The numbers are more than an economic headline. They represent truckloads of wheat, cement, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and small machinery crossing through the Torkham and Chaman borders—connecting traders, families, and towns. This 64.48% increase in exports is not just a sign of economic vitality; it is a glimmer of a potential peace dividend, grounded in mutual dependence rather than political convenience.

Historically, trade has often succeeded where diplomacy has failed. It creates stakeholders in peace. For the Afghan economy, still reeling from international isolation and sanctions since the Taliban takeover in 2021, Pakistan remains a vital artery. Pakistani goods are affordable, accessible, and crucial for Afghanistan’s fragile markets. For Pakistani exporters, Afghanistan is a natural market: culturally familiar, logistically reachable, and hungry for reliable supply chains.

But trade does more than feed economies—it softens attitudes. Each successful transaction is a vote for stability. Each trader who crosses the border to deliver goods is an informal ambassador, challenging the dominant narratives of hostility. If expanded, institutionalized, and protected from political disruptions, this trade relationship can serve as a stabilizing axis around which more durable peacebuilding efforts revolve.

That said, economics alone will not untangle the geopolitical knot. The specter of the TTP continues to loom large, poisoning public opinion and pushing Pakistan to engage in punitive cross-border actions. The Taliban’s intransigence on the issue, and Islamabad’s growing reliance on force rather than negotiation, threaten to unravel the fragile commercial progress being made.

For trade to flourish—and for peace to follow—both sides must treat commerce as strategic infrastructure, not collateral damage. This means securing trade routes from militant disruptions, protecting border markets from harassment and extortion, and creating bilateral mechanisms that insulate economic cooperation from political disputes.

Pakistan must also recalibrate its Afghan policy from one narrowly focused on security to one that embraces regional economic integration. The vision of Pakistan as a geoeconomic hub begins not with China or Central Asia, but with a functional, peaceful, and mutually beneficial relationship with Kabul. Afghanistan, too, must recognize that economic interdependence is not capitulation; it is survival. Clinging to hardline loyalties while letting trade opportunities rot at border crossings is not a sovereign stance—it is economic self-harm.

The 64.48% surge is not just a statistic. It is an opening. It suggests that despite insurgencies, diplomatic frost, and mutual suspicions, the people and businesses of both nations are still willing to engage in something the politicians have too often abandoned: cooperation.

In a region where war is too often the default language, trade may yet prove to be the better translator.