ASEAN’s Balancing Act: Navigating The AUKUS And Quad Dilemma – Analysis

The establishment of the AUKUS and Quad alliances has significantly shaped the evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia. These alliances, which aim to bolster regional security and counterbalance the growing influence of China, have generated considerable discourse within the region.

The creation of AUKUS and the Quad may ultimately result in the formation of a Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), which could potentially destabilize the region and undermine the efforts of ASEAN to maintain a neutral and cooperative security environment. This essay critically examines the necessity of AUKUS and the Quad from the perspectives of ASEAN and Indonesia and proposes measures to mitigate any potentially counterproductive consequences. 

AUKUS, a trilateral security agreement involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, was established in 2021 with the explicit objective of bolstering security in the Indo-Pacific region. Notably, the provision for Australia to procure nuclear-powered submarines represents a significant shift in the dynamics of regional security. The Quad, which consists of Japan, India, the United States, and Australia, has experienced a revitalization in recent years as a strategic forum aimed at ensuring an open and free Indo-Pacific region. Both alliances have been justified as necessary responses to China’s increasing assertiveness in the region, particularly in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific area.

The strategic goals of AUKUS and the Quad include deterring potential acts of aggression, fostering military cooperation, and safeguarding crucial sea routes. However, these objectives also raise concerns regarding their impact on the regional military equilibrium and the potential for an arms race. The introduction of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS, for instance, could provoke a response from China, thereby intensifying the militarization of the region.

Furthermore, the security cooperation emphasized by the Quad, while advantageous in addressing common challenges, may also be interpreted as an effort to encircle China, exacerbating tensions. From the perspective of ASEAN, the foremost multilateral organization in the region, the rise of AUKUS and the Quad presents both opportunities and challenges. ASEAN has long advocated for the principles of non-interference, dialogue, and peaceful resolution of disputes, which are central to its efforts in maintaining regional stability. The organization’s strategic vision underscores the importance of ASEAN centrality in the regional security architecture, with ASEAN-led mechanisms like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) playing crucial roles in fostering dialogue and cooperation among member states and external partners.

However, ASEAN is concerned that AUKUS and the Quad may undermine these efforts by shifting the regional focus towards great power rivalry. There is apprehension that the militarisation associated with AUKUS, coupled with the strategic realignment promoted by the Quad, could marginalize ASEAN and diminish its influence in regional security matters. This worry is particularly significant given ASEAN’s historical role in promoting a balanced approach to regional security that avoids aligning too closely with any single power. ASEAN’s centrality stems from its ability to serve as a neutral platform for bringing together diverse actors to address common challenges. The emergence of AUKUS and the Quad, with their more exclusive memberships and security agendas, poses a threat to this delicate balance. 

Indonesia, as ASEAN’s largest member state and a key actor in regional diplomacy, shares many of these concerns. Indonesia’s strategic interests lie in maintaining regional stability, avoiding entanglement in great power conflicts, and ensuring that ASEAN remains the primary forum for addressing regional security issues. Jakarta has consistently advocated for a balanced approach that upholds ASEAN’s centrality and avoids exacerbating regional tensions.

Indonesia’s response to AUKUS and the Quad has been cautious; while recognizing the importance of cooperation in addressing shared security challenges, Indonesia is cautious of any developments that may lead to increased polarization or militarization of the region. Indonesia’s response to AUKUS and the Quad has been characterized by calls for greater transparency and dialogue. Jakarta has urged the parties involved in AUKUS to engage more openly with ASEAN and its member states, emphasizing the need for initiatives that complement, rather than undermine, ASEAN’s objectives. Similarly, Indonesia has advocated for a more inclusive approach to the Quad, one that involves ASEAN countries in key discussions and ensures that the Quad’s activities align with the region’s priorities.

The potential consequences of AUKUS and the Quad’s rise are of great significance, particularly when considering the historical precedent set by the original Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). SEATO was established in 1954 as a collective defence treaty aimed at containing communism in Southeast Asia during the Cold War. However, the formation of SEATO was widely viewed as an imposition of external interests on the region, which ultimately led to its dissolution in 1977. Concerns have now arisen that AUKUS and the Quad could inadvertently lead to the creation of a new alliance resembling SEATO, which would further divide the region and undermine the influence of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Such a development would likely escalate existing tensions and result in a more fragmented and unstable Southeast Asia. The region could become increasingly embroiled in the crossfires of great power competition, with countries forced to align themselves with either China or the US-led alliances. This scenario would undermine ASEAN’s efforts to maintain a security environment characterized by neutrality and inclusivity, potentially resulting in adverse consequences and volatility within the region.

Given these potential outcomes, ASEAN and its member must adopt proactive measures to assert their role in regional security and prevent the establishment of a new SEATO-like alliance. Strengthening ASEAN’s ability to independently address regional security issues is crucial. This may involve enhancing existing ASEAN-led mechanisms, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS), to ensure their continued relevance and effectiveness in addressing emerging security challenges. Additionally, ASEAN should continue to pursue confidence-building measures and diplomatic engagements with all relevant stakeholders, including China, the United States, and other Quad members.

Engagement with AUKUS and the Quad should be pursued cautiously, ensuring that these alliances do not undermine the objectives of ASEAN. This necessitates advocating for inclusive and transparent security arrangements that involve ASEAN in key decision-making processes. By doing so, ASEAN can help ensure that the initiatives undertaken by AUKUS and the Quad complement rather than compete with its endeavours to promote stability and cooperation within the region.

In conclusion, while AUKUS and the Quad offer opportunities for enhancing security cooperation in Southeast Asia, they also engender significant risks if not managed carefully. The possibility of these alliances leading to the creation of a new SEATO-like organization represents a grave concern, as it could undermine ASEAN’s central role in regional security and exacerbate polarization and militarization. To prevent such an outcome, ASEAN and its member states, particularly Indonesia, must proactively assert their influence, foster inclusive dialogue, and ensure that regional security arrangements align with the principles of neutrality and cooperation that have long been the foundation of ASEAN’s success.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

References

• Bisley, Nick. “The Quad and Indo-Pacific: Shaping the Strategic Dynamics.” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2021, pp. 12-25.
• Heiduk, Felix. “AUKUS and the Indo-Pacific: Repercussions for ASEAN.” German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), September 2021.
• Khan, Faisal. “The Rebirth of SEATO? AUKUS and Its Implications for Southeast Asia.” International Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 18, No. 2, 2022, pp. 89-103.
• Smith, Michael E. “The Impact of AUKUS on Southeast Asian Security.” Asia-Pacific Security Review, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2022, pp. 44-58.