Japan: Shigeru Ishiba Reconfirmed As Prime Minister Amid Political Uncertainty – Analysis

By Pratnashree Basu

Japan’s domestic politics are experiencing a turbulent phase with a loss of public support for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in power since the Second World War. This loss of support can be attributed to ongoing inflation and rising costs of living, political corruption, an ageing society and a shrinking workforce.

The results of the recent elections in late October reflect public frustration, with the LDP losing a majority vote share for the first time in a decade, prompting a special National Diet session on 11 November to elect the country’s Prime Minister. The LDP’s support rating dropped significantly, with Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet’s approval falling as low as 34 percent in recent polls, prompting the LDP to court the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) for parliamentary support ahead of the prime ministerial vote on 11 November.

Though the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito retained the largest bloc in Japan’s recent election, they lost their lower house majority held since 2012, leaving Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reliant on smaller opposition parties to advance his policies. This fragility was highlighted when Ishiba’s confirmation vote went to a runoff for the first time in 30 years, reflecting tenuous support within the National Diet. Nonetheless, as the party with the most votes, Japanese lawmakers reconfirmed Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister in the special Diet session.

Why Ishiba called for snap elections 

Ishiba’s decision to hold snap elections on 27 October 2024 was driven by the ongoing party finance scandal, involving unreported political funds, that had already weakened support for the LDP. To avoid further erosion of confidence, Ishiba aimed to dissolve the Diet immediately after fulfilling formal obligations, including his administration policy speech and responding to party representatives’ questions.

The quick election was intended to secure public confidence before the administration’s image deteriorated further, as it was crucial for the LDP not only to retain a majority but also to avoid losing seats, as the prolonged debate over the scandal could lead to more losses.

The LDP, which has governed Japan for a decade despite frequent leadership changes, was poised to winagain due to low voter turnout and a divided opposition. This, along with support from its coalition partner, Komeito, made their victory highly likely. Relying on Komeito to secure a majority gives the party more influence over the LDP’s policies. Komeito has historically resisted some of the LDP’s hawkish security measures, such as acquiring longer-range missiles and lifting restrictions on weapons exports, which have prevented Japan from sending arms to Ukraine or Southeast Asian nations opposing China’s claims in the South China Sea.

The general election was thus a critical test for PM Ishiba. The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), had just chosen Yoshihiko Noda as its leader and was believed to be ill-prepared for the election, especially with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) contesting over a hundred constituencies. This split the opposition vote, potentially reducing seat losses for the LDP. A majority win would have strengthened Ishiba’s position within the LDP and could have boosted public support, helping to mitigate the fallout from the party finance scandal. Many LDP members of parliament (MP), therefore, backed the early election to swiftly stabilize the political landscape.

The road ahead

However, the general election left the country in political uncertainty, primarily due to unexpected losses for the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ishiba. The failure to secure a majority in the lower house of parliament marked a significant shift in Japan’s political landscape. This election, triggered by Ishiba’s attempt to consolidate power amid scandals surrounding political funds, resulted in gains for opposition parties such as the CDP and the DPP.

While the LDP and Komeito won the most seats in the election, they must now rely on smaller opposition parties to pass legislation, signalling a tenuous and complicated road that the administration must now navigate. This new dynamic has a range of implications. For one, it could stymie the legislative progress, impacting policy continuity on key issues like economic recovery, security, and defence reforms—particularly as Japan seeks to bolster its defence capabilities in light of regional tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

The election also raises uncertainties about the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary tightening, as any political reshuffling can interfere with planned financial policies aimed at tackling Japan’s economic challenges like inflation. Additionally, the political instability may strain Japan’s external relations and its commitments to regional security cooperation, especially with allies like the United States. These developments come at a time when Japan faces critical security challenges related to China’s assertive posture in the East China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific​.

Ishiba is expected to introduce a new cabinet soon with Keisuke Suzuki likely to be the  justice minister, Taku Eto as agriculture minister, and Komeito’s Hiromasa Nakano as land minister. Other posts will likely be retained by members from Ishiba’s previous cabinet. Ishiba’s immediate challenges include finalising a supplementary budget to address rising costs of living, likely needing backing from the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) whose leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, is also facing personal scandals. While the disunity among opposition parties, which are divided on major issues and failed to rally around an alternative candidate for prime minister, may prove to serve as an advantage for him, Ishiba certainly has a difficult road ahead. Party lawmakers are also reportedly pressuring Prime Minister Ishiba to consider resigning after next spring’s budget clears.

With Upper House elections scheduled for next year, the ruling coalition’s slim majority may further weaken unless Ishiba can rebuild public trust, which the finance scandal has shaken. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama addressed criticism regarding the party’s response to the political funds scandal, emphasizing that it was managed rigorously. He noted, however, that the LDP has struggled to convey this to the public, who perceive the issue as involving “slush funds” and “tax evasion.” With Ishiba set to continue as the Prime Minister, Japan’s previous foreign and security policies are likely to continue. However, domestically, Japan’s political future will depend significantly on the ability of the ruling coalition or any new alliances to stabilize the government, navigate internal divisions, and build a coherent policy framework in a politically fragmented Diet.

• About the author: Pratnashree Basu is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
• Source: This article was published by Observer Research Foundation