ASEAN’s Path To G20 Membership – Analysis

By Allan Dharma Saputra

Despite its decade-long presence as a guest at G20 summits, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces a complex journey towards full membership in the world’s premier economic forum. The African Union’s historic admission as the G20’s first new member in 2023 has sparked discussions about ASEAN’s potential elevation from guest to member. But this transition requires the navigation of uncharted diplomatic waters.

ASEAN’s current relationship with the G20 is strong but limited. While Indonesia is the only ASEAN nation among the G20’s permanent members, the bloc’s wider presence comes through the ASEAN Chair as an invited guest, alongside Singapore, which receives consistent invitations to G20 gatherings. While this arrangement grants speaking rights at G20 forums, it does not give ASEAN the consensus-building power held by full members. This distinction is crucial, as guests can voice positions but cannot shape or block final decisions on global economic policies that directly impact Southeast Asia’s population of 676.6 million and US$3.8 trillion economy.

The region’s economic significance is clear. Southeast Asia serves as a critical hub for global manufacturing, shipping and digital innovation. The region’s strategic waterways, including the Strait of Malacca, channel approximately one third of global trade. Ports in Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia demonstrate efficiency that surpasses North American and European operations combined. The digital economy’s trajectory is equally impressive, with projections estimating that US$1 trillion will be added to regional GDP by 2030. These metrics suggest that ASEAN’s economic weight matches or exceeds several current G20 members.

Beyond economic metrics, ASEAN’s strategic importance lies in its role as a diplomatic bridge. The bloc has developed expertise in managing great power relations, particularly between the United States and China, while maintaining regional cohesion. This experience in balancing diverse interests could benefit the G20, especially as global governance faces increasing polarisation.

ASEAN’s contributions to issues relevant to the G20 deserve recognition. The bloc has made significant strides in strengthening global supply chain resilience, particularly through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest free trade agreement. Its pioneering work in digital integration, including the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement and cross-border payment connectivity initiatives, serves as a model for financial inclusion. And ASEAN’s approaches to climate transition financing, notably through the ASEAN Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance, demonstrate innovative regional solutions to global challenges.

But the path to G20 membership presents unique challenges. The African Union’s admission in 2023 marked the first membership change in G20 history, requiring unanimous consensus from all existing members. This breakthrough came with strong backing from India during its G20 presidency, demonstrating the importance of strategic support from key members. While this precedent is groundbreaking, it doesn’t establish a clear roadmap for future expansions. Unlike the African Union, which successfully presented itself as the voice of a unified continent, ASEAN faces the complex task of demonstrating its ability to act cohesively despite its diverse membership.

Internal coordination remains a critical challenge. While Indonesia, as the sole ASEAN member within the G20, can advocate for the bloc’s interests, the pursuit of effective membership requires unified support from all ten ASEAN members. Varied responses within ASEAN to regional challenges like the South China Sea disputes and Myanmar’s political upheaval highlight difficulties in achieving consensus on major international issues. This internal dynamic complicates the task of presenting ASEAN as a coherent voice in global governance.

The transition from guest status to full membership demands a strategic shift in ASEAN’s approach. While speaking rights at G20 meetings provide valuable opportunities for input, full membership would grant ASEAN direct influence over global economic decisions affecting its region. This elevation requires more than just economic credentials but also a coordinated diplomatic campaign that demonstrates ASEAN’s capacity for unified action.

A successful membership bid would require several concrete steps. ASEAN needs to leverage its existing presence at G20 forums more effectively. The ASEAN Chair and Singapore, as regular guests, could coordinate their messaging to consistently highlight the bloc’s contributions to global governance. Indonesia’s position as a G20 member creates additional opportunities to champion ASEAN’s cause, but this effort should be supported by proactive diplomacy from all member states.

ASEAN must also strengthen its case by showcasing practical solutions to global challenges. The bloc’s achievements in digital payment integration, supply chain resilience and climate finance initiatives align directly with G20 priorities. These successes should be framed within a broader narrative about ASEAN’s role in addressing global economic challenges. More importantly, ASEAN needs to demonstrate improved crisis management capabilities, learning from its experiences with regional disputes and political challenges.

The path forward requires careful diplomatic orchestration. ASEAN should identify and cultivate support among G20 members sympathetic to its aspirations. Building alliances with other emerging G20 economies, particularly those advocating for greater Global South representation, could create momentum for membership consideration. The bloc should also address potential concerns about decision-making efficiency by proposing clear mechanisms for its participation in G20 consensus-building processes.

The quest for G20 membership is an opportunity for ASEAN to redefine its role in global governance. While the African Union’s admission has opened the door for membership expansion, ASEAN’s success will depend on its ability to unite behind this goal and effectively demonstrate that full membership would enhance the G20’s effectiveness through its proven economic credentials and commitment to global cooperation.

• About the author: Allan Dharma Saputra is Research Intern at The Habibie Center’s ASEAN Studies Program, Jakarta.
• Source: This article was published at East Asia Forum