The Atlantic At Portugal’s Doorstep: A Geopolitical And Economic Reckoning – Analysis

By Guilherme Paredes

Portugal has, because of its geography and history, jurisdiction over one of the world’s largest maritime zones: more than 1.7 million square kilometers of the Atlantic Ocean. It is, in fact, placed in the top ten nations in this respect. If its current submission to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf is granted, this area could expand to 2.15 million square kilometers.

Despite having access to this vast strategic asset, Portugal has repeatedly failed to convert it into geopolitical or economic power. Except for fishing, the Portuguese EEZ remains largely underutilized, with much of the research in this region being led by foreign institutions.

History offers a warning: Portugal has long prioritized symbolic claims over practical development, often with costly consequences. As a new global competition for marine resources emerges, Portugal must decide whether to remain passive or take an active role in shaping its maritime future.

Historical Lessons: An Empire of Symbols

In the 15th century, Portugal led in world exploration, establishing a network of outposts along the African and Asian coasts, allowing it to control key maritime trade routes. However, instead of supporting the control of these outposts on strong economical and naval strategies, Portugal relied heavily on symbolic gestures, such as planting stone markers (known as “marcos”) to assert its right to control a given territory, which it hoped would be accepted and respected by other countries. In contrast, northern European rivals, like the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, adopted a different approach: using the foundation of what would become the capitalist model, they empowered private citizens through chartered companies and profit-sharing ventures. This entrepreneurship, backed by naval power, allowed them to displace Portuguese positions and transform former outposts into engines of national growth.

Portugal’s weak hold over its claimed territories became evident once again 1890. During the “Scramble for Africa,” Portugal aimed to connect its African colonies of Angola and Mozambique through a territorial corridor, even though it had never established meaningful control of the region between the two colonies. Britain, pursuing Cecil Rhodes’s dream of a Cape-to-Cairo railway, issued an ultimatum: either Portugal withdraw its claim to the African interior, or it face military consequences. Lacking the political will and military power to resist the British, Portugal backed down, in a deep blow to its national pride, exposing the weakness of empty territorial claims.

Ironically, Portugal’s most significant colonial efforts occurred when the global tide on colonialism had already turned. After World War II, and witnessing the independence movements popping up across most of Africa and Asia, Portugal invested heavily in infrastructure development and administrative control in its overseas territories. However, it was too little too late. Portugal found itself isolated against the decolonization efforts supported by the US and the Soviet Union and, after a long war fought on several fronts, by the mid-1970s, its empire had collapsed, with most of its former colonies aligned with rival Cold War powers.

The Present Challenge

Portugal’s struggle to maintain its empire is particularly ironic given the strategy behind its very own founding. During the Christian Reconquista, the Christian Kingdoms incentivized the settlement of the reclaimed lands in the Iberian Peninsula to improve their economic standing, direct the resources of the newly acquired lands to the war effort, and make it harder for the enemy to retake it. Yet, this practical approach was never fully applied overseas; and worse of all, it continues to be ignored in Portugal’s current maritime ventures.

Portugal’s EEZ, roughly 20 times the size of its mainland, is rich in fisheries, critical minerals, renewable energy resources, and marine biodiversity with pharmaceutical and industrial potential. However, as in the past, Portugal risks letting others benefit from these resources. For example, much of the marine scientific research within Portugal’s EEZ is conducted by foreign institutions, a reality reflected in the foreign toponyms scattered across its seabed.

While countries like Norway, the United Kingdom, and even China actively developed their offshore industries, Portugal has been slow to act. The country’s first commercial offshore wind energy projects are only now materializing, years behind northern European peers who built competitive industries by combining public infrastructure with private investment.

In short, Portugal holds one of Europe’s greatest underutilized geopolitical assets. If it does not act, others will.

The New Geopolitical Landscape

The world is entering a new era of geopolitical tensions, what some have called a second Cold War. However, unlike the 20th-century version, this one is playing out across multiple domains: cyber, space, and increasingly, the ocean. With most land-based resources already claimed, the seas are becoming the next great arena for geopolitical competition.

Maritime zones are now central to national strategies. China has militarized the South China Sea, building artificial islands to enforce its claims. The United States has revived its interest in the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans, from Greenland to Panama to Tinian Island. Even Russia, through its Wagner proxies in Africa, is using access to ports and minerals to expand influence. These moves reflect a simple principle: in international affairs, legal jurisdiction means little without the capacity to enforce and use it; in other words, international law is not worth the paper it is written on (as Ukraine is very much aware).

As previously mentioned, Portugal has submitted a request to expand its jurisdiction over the Atlantic. But what does it plan to do with it? Compared to the aggressive maritime development strategies of other nations, Portugal’s efforts remain fragmented and underfunded. The country has some legal rights, the historical background, and the geographic advantage, but unless it builds the institutions, industries, and infrastructure to back its claims, Portugal risks repeating a familiar pattern: symbolic control without extracted value.

A Path Forward

Portugal stands at a crossroads. It can continue its passive management of its Atlantic resources, or reclaim its place as a serious maritime player, by investing in the development, defense, and sustainable use of its ocean territory.

The way forward requires more than state-run initiatives; it calls for a long-term national strategy to attract private, innovative ventures, and prioritization of long-term results over short-term displays of national pride. The state should shift its role from that of a micromanager supported by disconnected organisms, to that of an enabling actor, by providing clear regulations, reducing bureaucratic friction, and coordinating communication across agencies and regions. In this strategy, three sectors stand out:

1. Offshore Aquaculture. Portugal has one of the highest fish consumption rates in Europe, but its fishing stocks are declining. To circumvent the issue, Portugal should invest in the development of robust offshore aquaculture technology tailored to the aggressive Atlantic conditions. This would not only reduce dependence on imports, but also create a new export sector, based on sustainability and technological leadership.
2. Offshore Renewable Energy. Without sufficient domestic production of fossil fuels, Europe’s energy security is dependent on shifting from importing energy from unreliable suppliers to investing in renewable energy generation. Portugal’s Atlantic coast is a prime location for wind and wave energy. With the right incentives and infrastructure, it could become a hub for marine renewable energy, exporting not only energy, but also technologies to harness it.
3. Marine Biotechnology. Portugal’s EEZ contains species with unique biochemical properties, many of which are yet to be studied. By promoting biotech research and intellectual property development, Portugal can capture value in high-growth sectors like pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and green chemistry.

Each of the pillars mentioned above offers dual benefits: economic competitiveness and strategic resilience. However, they require leadership, vision, and a national commitment to move from symbolic claims to tangible control.

Portugal once led the world by looking outward across the sea. It must now do so again, except this time it should not be through conquest, but rather technological development. The Atlantic is not just at its doorstep; it is its future.

• The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.