Surviving An Assassination Attempt: Trump’s Path To Presidential Victory – OpEd

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The attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania could paradoxically boost his chances of returning to the White House. This incident has significantly bolstered his campaign by garnering support from influential figures, providing extensive free publicity, marginalizing opposing Republicans, and undermining the mainstream media’s efforts to discredit him.

Tensions within the Democratic camp were palpable even before recent events unfolded. Following the first televised debate between the election rivals, it became evident that Biden lacks the requisite ability and qualifications to effectively challenge a formidable opponent like Trump for the Democratic Party candidacy. Consequently, mounting pressure has been exerted on Biden’s campaign to consider withdrawing from the race. This pressure intensified following the president’s controversial remarks during the NATO summit in Washington. The situation was exacerbated by a reduction in funding to the Biden-Harris campaign and the emergence of influential and affluent Democrats, including George Soros, vying for a leadership change, ultimately resulting in Harris assuming the candidacy after Biden’s resignation.

Amidst the myriad of challenges and disturbances within the Democratic Party, four critical issues typically influence the outcome of elections in the United States: economic livelihood, citizen security, illegal immigration, and war. The Biden administration, along with Harris as his replacement, has lagged behind Trump in all these key areas according to recent polls.

The attempted assassination of Trump and his subsequent survival have exacerbated the Democrats’ predicament. The incident in Pennsylvania has sparked a wave of public support for Trump from prominent figures. Notably, Elon Musk’s $45 million donation to Trump’s Super PAC, along with endorsements from billionaire Bill Ackman, who previously favored Democratic candidates, and influential media personality Megyn Kelly, underscores the significant shift in support towards Trump.

Moreover, Republican voters who were previously hesitant to vote have rallied around Trump following the assassination attempt, significantly increasing their likelihood of turning out on November 5th. History supports this trend; after the unsuccessful assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan in 1981, his popularity surged, culminating in a landslide victory in the 1984 election.

The media frenzy surrounding the attempt on Trump’s life has provided his campaign with invaluable exposure, worth billions in advertising. As a result, Trump has dominated news podcasts and broadcasts, overshadowing the rival party’s campaigns. The extensive coverage has effectively sidelined Democratic efforts, with the assassination attempt and its aftermath taking center stage in political discourse.

Since 2015, the “Never Trump” movement has emerged among independent and Republican voters, posing a potential source of division within the party. However, the shooting incident in Pennsylvania and Trump’s survival have fractured this group, with some members now supporting Trump and others becoming marginalized and less vocal in their opposition. This shift has further solidified Trump’s position within the Republican Party.

Following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, high-ranking Democratic Party members have recommended tempering attacks against him. Consequently, the mainstream media, which has often portrayed Trump as a grave threat to democracy and likened him to Hitler, has softened its rhetoric. This shift could be crucial in the Electoral College, where a few thousand votes can determine the outcome. The unsuccessful attempt on Trump’s life and the ensuing surge of support are not the only factors bolstering the Republican Party. The Harris administration must also contend with challenges such as economic hardships, social security issues, illegal immigration, and international conflicts inherited from the Biden-Harris era.

Over the past four years, approximately 12 to 15 million illegal immigrants have entered the U.S. via the southern border due to Biden administration policies, leading to increased crime rates in major cities governed by Democrats. This situation has contributed to Trump’s rising popularity. Additionally, inflation has soared from ¼% in mid-2020 to 9% by late 2022, posing another significant challenge for Kamala Harris. Under Trump, the average American household income increased by $5,000, while inflation during the Biden administration has eroded wage gains, leaving many Americans financially worse off.

Furthermore, international crises such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’s attack on Israel have strained the U.S. financially, costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars. The continued financial aid and arms packages to Ukraine are unsustainable, and inflation and rising prices of essential goods are clearly impacting American households. With ongoing conflicts and White House policies, higher taxes are likely, which will be a key issue for voters on November 5th.

The assassination attempt on the former president has significantly boosted his popularity, particularly among Republican voters in the predominantly religious United States. Surviving the attempt has elevated Trump to a saintly status within his party. Moreover, Trump’s keen understanding of everyday American concerns—economic challenges, illegal immigration, security issues, and the substantial costs associated with supporting Ukraine and Israel—has resonated deeply with voters.

It is highly likely that Donald Trump will emerge victorious on November 5th. Despite Kamala Harris replacing Biden, Democrats may focus their campaign on issues like abortion, Trump’s stance on feminism, and racism, but these are unlikely to sway the outcome. Abortion, for instance, is a concern for less than 5% of Americans, primarily in states with non-religious, left-leaning legislators. Trump’s popularity in states like Florida, home to a large Latino population, and the Biden administration’s perceived passive stance during the Gaza conflict, which has displeased Muslim Americans, could lead to a decline in Democratic support in swing states such as Michigan and Illinois. This indicates that traditional Democratic weapons, such as advocating for minority rights, may no longer be as effective.

Furthermore, the Biden administration’s track record on issues ranging from social security and illegal immigration to initiating two major wars and grappling with inflation has left a stark impression on American voters. With the cost of living increasing and economic pressures mounting, Democrats face the prospect of a dignified defeat. Their focus may shift towards retaining congressional seats, governorships, and municipal offices in an attempt to mitigate losses.

Greg Pence

Greg Pence is an international studies graduate of University of San Francisco.

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