Myanmar’s Rare Earth Revolution: A Geopolitical Gamechanger – OpEd
By James Shwe
As President-elect Donald Trump assembles his new administration, a complex geopolitical chess game is unfolding in Myanmar. The intersection of rare earth minerals, a protracted civil war, and shifting global alliances has created a perfect storm that demands immediate attention from Washington. This situation not only presents a critical foreign policy challenge but also offers a unique opportunity to reshape the balance of power in Southeast Asia.
Recent developments have dramatically altered the landscape of Myanmar’s rare earth industry and its global impact. Myanmar has emerged as the world’s largest supplier of heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), surpassing even China in exports. Last year, Myanmar exported approximately 50,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides (REOs) from ion-adsorption clays to China, far exceeding China’s domestic IAC mining quota of 19,000 tons. This positions Myanmar as the leading global exporter of heavy REOs, with its exports accounting for as much as 50% of the global heavy rare earths supply.
The situation has been further complicated by recent events in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war. The opposition forces in Myanmar have made remarkable gains throughout the country, particularly in areas controlled by ethnic armed organizations. Operation 1027, launched in October 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, marked a turning point in the conflict. This coordinated offensive saw resistance forces capture over 500 military outposts and several key towns, dealing a severe blow to the military junta’s control and morale.
In a significant development, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) seized control of the country’s rare earth mining region in mid-October 2024. The KIA took over a leading mining center that includes production sites in Pang War, Chipwi, Phimaw, and Hsawlaw. This takeover has effectively halted mining operations, disrupting the global supply chain and prompting China to impose a trade embargo on Myanmar.
The National Unity Government, an anti-junta body that oversees many of the newer civilian groups, claims that junta opponents now control 60% of the country. While this control remains largely peripheral, the resistance’s success has been unprecedented. The junta faces a range of serious problems, including declining morale, defections, a failure to recruit enough people to keep the army’s size stable, and terrible conditions for soldiers.
China’s role in this conflict is crucial and complex. While China controls nearly 90% of global rare earth processing capacity, it has effectively outsourced much of its extraction to Myanmar. Beijing has consistently promoted sham elections and forced ceasefires that ultimately benefit the military junta. However, China’s approach is primarily driven by its strategic interests, including access to Myanmar’s natural resources and its crucial geographic position for China’s Belt and Road Initiative with ocean access from landlocked western China.
Given these developments, it is imperative for the United States to seize this moment and increase its support for Myanmar’s resistance rather than making unsustainable deals with the military junta like China is doing. The reasons are compelling, ranging from advancing democracy to securing strategic geopolitical gains and addressing humanitarian imperatives.
President-elect Trump’s recent cabinet nominations signal a hardening stance on China and a renewed focus on securing America’s supply chains. Senator Marco Rubio, the incoming Secretary of State, has long been a vocal critic of China’s dominance in the rare earth market. He was also a staunch advocate for democracy in Burma.
Senator Marco Rubio has deep concerns about China’s control of the world’s rare earth supply and wrote several articles and introduced legislations about rare earths and China. Links to these are provided in the references following the article.
Representative Michael Waltz, set to become National Security Adviser, brings his military background as a Green Beret veteran and hawkish views on China to the table. Waltz’s appointment suggests a continued focus on countering Chinese influence.
Representative Mike Waltz has been a vocal and active opponent of China across multiple fronts. As a member of the House China Task Force, he has proposed legislation to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese minerals and protect American universities from espionage. Waltz has consistently criticized China’s control over critical supply chains, its military expansion, and investments in U.S. industries. He has condemned China’s human rights abuses, called for a boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics, and described the U.S.-China relationship as a “cold war.” Waltz’s actions and statements reflect a strong stance against China’s growing influence, advocating for policies that prioritize countering the China threat in U.S. foreign policy.
Representative Elise Stefanik, nominated as UN Ambassador, rounds out a foreign policy team that seems poised to challenge the status quo. She is the No. 4 House Republican and a staunch Trump ally. She is in the Congressional Chinese Task Force, the armed forces committee and the intelligence committee.
Representative Elise Stefanik has taken numerous legislative actions against China, focusing on national security, economic concerns, and human rights. She has introduced bills like the “Confronting CCP Human Rights Abusers Act” to sanction entities involved in human rights abuses, the “End College Chinese Communist Partnerships Act” to limit Chinese influence in American universities, and the “Countering CCP Drones Act” to prohibit Chinese drone operations on U.S. communications infrastructure. Stefanik has also co-sponsored legislation to impose sanctions on Chinese military-affiliated companies and worked to remove Confucius Institutes from U.S. universities. Additionally, she has been involved in efforts to protect American patient data from Chinese biotechnology companies and has advocated for transparency in agreements with China, particularly regarding the WHO.
In the Senate, John Thune from South Dakota has been elected as the new Senate Republican leader, succeeding Mitch McConnell. This position is crucial as it will involve working closely with the incoming Trump administration on legislative matters, including foreign policy initiatives.
Senator John Thune has taken several actions against China. He co-introduced a bipartisan resolution with Senator Angus King to challenge China’s self-designation as a developing country at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This resolution aims to reform WTO rules to prevent economically advanced countries like China from exploiting developing country status for unfair trade advantages. Thune has also advocated for strengthening U.S. national security and economic competitiveness to counter China’s influence. He emphasizes the importance of passing timely defense authorization bills, investing in military capabilities, and developing a robust trade policy to compete with China’s growing economic and strategic influence. Additionally, Thune supports initiatives to reduce U.S. reliance on China for critical minerals and energy resources.
This new administration has an opportunity to set a new course – one that secures America’s technological future while also championing sustainable practices and human rights. The window of opportunity for impactful U.S. involvement in Myanmar is now. By supporting Myanmar’s Spring Revolution, the United States can reaffirm its commitment to democracy, gain strategic advantages in a crucial region, and potentially reshape the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia.
As we enter what Rubio calls “an era of pragmatic foreign policy,” this pragmatism must extend to addressing the complex situation in Myanmar, balancing strategic interests with ethical considerations and long-term regional stability. The time for decisive action is now – the U.S. must not miss this historic opportunity to make a significant impact in Myanmar and beyond, while also securing its own interests in the critical rare earth mineral supply chain. Supporting the resistance, rather than making deals with a weakening military junta, is not just the right thing to do – it’s the smart thing to do for America’s long-term strategic interests.
References:
- Myanmar REE mining halts, prices soar – Metal Tech News, November 13, 2024
- Rebels Seize Myanmar Rare Earths Mines, Prices May Spike – MetalMiner, November 6, 2024
- Myanmar: Insecure Supply Chains for Heavy Rare Earths – Tradium, December 18, 2023
- Fueling the future, poisoning the present: Myanmar’s rare earth boom – Global Witness, May 23, 2024
- The Mineral Industry of Burma in 2020-2021 – U.S. Geological Survey
- Rare earths in spotlight amid US-China tensions, Myanmar turmoil – South China Morning Post, November 4, 2024
- Links to articles by Marco Rubio about rare earths and China
- https://www.rubio.senate.gov/rubio-mckinley-colleagues-urge-biden-administration-to-establish-rare-earth-metallurgical-cooperative-to-end-u-s-dependence-on-china
- https://www.rubio.senate.gov/rubio-introduces-bill-to-combat-china-s-rare-earth-monopoly-boost-u-s-advanced-manufacturing
- https://thehill.com/opinion/4817683-critical-minerals-crisis-china
- https://www.rubio.senate.gov/rubio-hyde-smith-introduce-bill-to-kickstart-american-rare-earth-manufacturing