Ukraine’s Ammunition Shortages: Truth? – OpEd

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg told reporters on February 13, that “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current production rates. This puts our defense industries under strain. So we need to ramp up new production and invest in our production capacities.” NATO members would “step up and sustain” support for Ukraine, saying: “NATO stands with Ukraine for as long as it takes.” The issue is also liable to be raised at the Munich Security Conference. “We see no sign whatsoever that President Putin is preparing for peace.”

Russia has already commenced a long-anticipated offensive in eastern Ukraine ahead of the first anniversary of President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on 24 February, prompting the Ukrainian army to consume ammunition at an unprecedented rate said Stoltenberg.

Showcase West’s Industrial Base

At stake is not only the West’s ability to continue supplying Ukraine with the weapons and munitions it needs but also allies’ capacity to show its adversaries that they have an industrial base that can produce sufficient weaponry to mount a credible defence against a possible attack. Ukraine and its allies are looking around the world for artillery munitions. Reports of Pakistani-made Soviet-caliber munitions heading to Ukraine exist and US troops being asked to send munitions that they had stockpiled in South Korea to Ukraine. 

Since June 2022 it has been repeatedly reported that Ukrainian military is running low on artillery munitions. It appears US-NATO combine has failed to supply artillery munitions and on the other hand are talking about supplying fighter jets and tanks!A senior NATO official said that last summer in the Donbas region, the Ukrainians were firing 6,000 to 7,000 artillery rounds each day, whereas the Russians were firing 40,000 to 50,000 rounds per day! By comparison, the United States produces only 15,000 rounds each month.

No matter how much NATO-US hypes up the Russian threat to Europe, it is impossible for many Western nations to sacrifice their own interest to become active participants in US-NATO’s plan to defeat Russia. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg told reporters on February 13 that “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current production rates”. It is difficult to believe the statement as earlier reports of Russian casualties and destruction of their equipment was widely reported by the Western media. On what targets is Ukraine firing 5-6000 artillery shells a day? Or is this artillery munitions shortages hype to make up for reserves and build up West’s industrial base. Defence companies; “Show me the money.” Defence companies are worried about is that they will expand capacity but when the war ends the defence department will cut the contracts.

Does Russia also Face Artillery Munitions Shortages? 

Ammunition shortages remain the main limiting factor of Russian operations in Ukraine. This was announced by British intelligence in its daily update of the situation. Although Moscow has partially filled its personnel shortages since October, “lack of ammunition remains the main limiting factor of Russian offensive operations,” in Ukraine, the report reads.

But Dmytro Pletenchuk, public affairs officer for the Kherson regional military administration, said that “There is no military purpose for these attacks. It is shelling just for the sake of shelling.” Meaning Russian forces do not really face artillery munitions shortages!The news of the appearance of recently manufactured Russian ammunition on the battlefield indicates the resumption of their mass production. 

A senior US defense official estimated that Russia is firing a staggering 20,000 artillery rounds per day while Ukraine is firing from 4,000 to 7,000 rounds daily.A senior NATO official said that last summer in the Donbas region40,000 to 50,000 rounds per day. Unbelievable appears to be highly exaggerated estimates. By even taking a lower estimate of 20,000 artillery rounds per day fired on Ukraine by Russia ahead of the first anniversary of Russian invasion on 24 February over 70,00,000 rounds would have been fired on Ukraine. If this be correct by now most of Ukraine cities would have been razed to the ground! This also reflects that possibly Russians are not targeting civilian inhabited areas deliberately.

Multiple European defense and security sources have told CNN that there are serious concerns at just how much of Europe’s ammunition has been used on the battlefield and not replaced. One senior government official of a major European military power said that “it’s something we all know about, but don’t know what to do about it.” The picture European defense officials paint is a grim one. No one wants publicly to say that supporting Ukraine has caused problems, but the ammo crunch is coming and it will take major intervention to put right.

NATO Chief warns of a long-term war not likely to end early, also talks of “Weapons are for Peace” and that Putin was preparing for new offensives and attacks have already begun. Therefore, the administration of US President Biden is increasing its support for Ukraine with a visit to Poland which may lead to further  strategy of ‘Escalations’ from both sides.

Uncertainty and preparations for the worst scenario are on for the continuation of the war. All this is happening when “Russia is ready to engage with Ukraine, but there should not be any preconditions for talks that should be based on the existing reality.” Or is this ‘Narrative’ of artillery munitions shortages being built to prepare the defence industry for a long war as it appears from the statements over the period of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. As a military man it is difficult to believe that the US backed NATO has failed to meet the artillery munitions demand of Ukraine for over a year now!

So it is seen that NATO is coordinating the battles but the US ambassador Juianne Smith to NATO gives a different version when she spoke to Naomi Canton; “I just want to be crystal clear: The NATO Alliance, itself, is not providing security assistance to Ukraine. It is not coordinating that assistance and it is not training Ukrainian forces. It is not directly engaged in any way, shape or form in the conflict.” 

The Russian invasion rightly has been condemned by all against Ukraine, its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Russian actions violate international law. Indian  Prime Minister Modi has even told President Putin that “This Era is of No War.” Neither side in the conflict has the possibility of a clear military victory. No one is talking to sit down at the negotiating table for peace. This War will have No Victors but both the Warring nations will be ‘Vanquished Losers’ overall.