The Horn Of Africa States: Somalia – Resilience In The Face Of Relentless Assaults (Part II) – OpEd
In part I of this two-part series, we noted that Somalia stayed resilient in the face of multiple and relentless assaults, from the start of its recent history, after the birth of the current Somali state in 1960 to the present. Nothing appears to have changed since the time we wrote the first part on June 16th, 2021as the assaults continue unabated.
The same issues, including the implanted terror groups, the interferences from many countries which have interest in the Somali state and space, the NGOs which live off the broken backs of the population, the internal tensions exploited by the foreign parties and those who do not wish the country and people well, still remain.
The continuing resistance of Somalis in the face of these assaults has not diminished either but has strengthened, although, it would appear that a new and more dangerous formulae to weaken the Somali state appears to have been put in place.
It is these latter new machineries that appear to have been put in place, which is worrying and which most Somalis have not woken up to as yet, although many are aware of the dangers involved in this. It is the man reason for this article to bring them forth.
The Economic War
They say that entrepreneurship is part of human civilization starting from when people first started to exchange the fruits of their efforts and when they started to seize on opportunities, even travelling from place to place and hence instigated the economic progress people live in today. As a seafaring nation, Somalia was always exposed to foreign trade between Africa and the other continents and historical records indicate that Somalis traded with Africa, Asia and Europe. As traders who carried goods between distant lands and within their own territories, Somalia was always a survivor in the realm of business and trade.
After the collapse of the state and central governance in 1991, many Somalis migrated out of the country, not that they wanted to leave the country but there was no other choice and true to their tradition of trading and business acumen, they started small businesses across the globe, which has become a marker of Somalis anywhere, wherever they went – some 145 countries of the world of today.
Because their clan family organizational infrastructure, the family, remains the glue that links people together and therefore helping each other was and is part of their life systems. Those who migrated did not forget their kith and kin back home and they have to support them and hence this gave rise to the money transfer businesses of Somalis, which cover the world today.
The remittance businesses of Somalis helped re-invigorate the Somali economy back home, which in turn, helped improve the local economy in Somalia, mostly in the trading and other businesses. Agriculture, Livestock, trade, and fishing all improved and, henceforth, reconstruction of the country’s economy earnestly started. This was not pleasing to some of the neighboring countries and an envy was not far behind.
This has given rise to making business in Somalia and especially the capital a difficult proposition, where bombing, worsening security, overtaxing and bad governance services seem to have conspired together to make people move their businesses to neighboring countries, mostly Nairobi. Many of the diaspora are now enticed to buy properties in Nairobi, Kampala and Tanzanian cities and unfortunately even the government personnel of the Federal Government of Somalia, including those at the highest levels, are moving their wealth out of Somalia to these countries. They are not encroached to invest in Hargeisa or other peaceful Somali spaces. It is another economic war on Somalia.
Despite this undeclared economic war, Somalia still remains robust with its agriculture recovering and agricultural production, the main pillar of Somalia’s economy, improving. This includes not only farming but also livestock breeding and the weather has apparently been helpful lately. Positive news of the future with the expected oil bonanza and potentially direct foreign investments henceforth also add a positive note.
The reduction of the country’s foreign debt through the IMF/World Bank HIPC process to 6% of the country’s GDP was also helpful, although no one knows what the GDP of the country is. The international organizations, despite the unavailability of any records of the country’s full economic performance, do provide some estimates but they are all fake and unreliable.
The country is running and working, nevertheless, albeit, at rates well below what it should have been doing. The Somali resilience on the economic front still remains strong.
Increased Terror Groups
The terror groups appear to be increasing with new groups now fighting in the northeast of the country. It would appear some countries have introduced them to the region to exploit the mineral resources of the region which is reported to have a lot of gold and other important mineral reserves. This is adding to the woes of the country, which is not nationally prepared to face any enemy together.
The war against the terror groups continues and they have not succeeded in cowing it. The Somali resistance in this regard still goes strong.
The Failure of the Federal Infrastructure
It would appear that the federal member states and the federal government no longer see eye to eye on many matters, which encourages others to interfere in the nation’s affairs. Barring Somaliland, which was never part of the structure, the other member states mostly appear to be moving away from the center. Puntland and Jubaland are not even on speaking terms and appear to be dealing with foreign parties on their own, which pleases, of course, the enemy nations. The Southwest appears undecided and flipflops. The central region of Hirshabelle appears to have a broken back and unable to recover from the disputes among its regions, while the Galmudug region appears to be a battleground among the various clans of the state.
This puts a lot of strain on the country’s political performance and makes it vulnerable. The political opposition is, however, on guard and the fact that elections are just a year away adds a positive note as the current regime may either be reconfirmed or replaced. A stronger voice from the silent majority is also on the rise and this is expected to help in the repositioning of the political class agendas for the better.
Conclusion
Somalia is a country with many issues involving, in the main, instability and violence (not only from the terror groups but also ethnic and clan-based), humanitarian issues involving food shortages as a result of the ongoing conflicts, and natural disasters involving droughts and floods. But the economy, despite being unmeasured and not numbered, appears to be growing, with the hope that oil and gas, long waited for, may finally become a major part of it. The country’s agriculture, livestock industry, fishing, telecommunications, banking and finance are all improving despite the attempts to redirect the country’s diaspora remittances to other countries.
Unlike many other African countries, Somalia is as old as history itself. It is home to the oldest pastoralists of the world who tamed the camel. It was always known for its trade with many different parties of the world including the ancient Egyptians, other Africans, Persians, Europeans, Indians, Chinese and others. It was also known as this wealthy region, not only because it provided and supplied frankincense, myrrh, and other valuable goods, but also for its location. Somalia and Somalis have through this long history faced and survived countless assaults and that resilience still remains the main marker of the people.
