Beijing Seizes On Malaysia’s Economic And Security Trap – Analysis

China is aware of Malaysia’s vulnerable economic position and is leveraging its expanded grip and influence to dictate Malaysia’s economic relations with the West. It also wants some measure of control over Malaysia’s advantage in the semiconductor, rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical resources, especially as it faces increasing pressure to cut it off from Western technology and international markets.

Beijing is using Malaysia as a convenient and easy second front to expand its focus on critical areas, as it is squeezed by the US led embargo and sanctions on these key areas. Malaysia is seen as a potential puppet in finding leeway and ensuring it remains competitive as the US and China vie for influence in the Southeast Asia region.

Beijing will need Malaysia to continue with its neutral approach, as Beijing is keen to expel any notion and pursuit of the West to establish greater security foothold in the region, especially in the South China Sea as the West gained momentum in recent years with new commitment shown by Manila and increasingly Singapore and Indonesia.

For as long as Beijing is able to rein in Malaysia through a combination of economic tools and hard-power measures, its South China Sea ambition can be further supported, with less opening for the US to reinforce its responsive and deterring capacity.

Malaysia is always fearful, although warm ties with Beijing go back centuries. While the interaction and ties have largely been accommodating and supportive, the new ventures and ambitions of Beijing especially under President Xi have warranted enough fear and wariness despite the socio-cultural and economic affiliation.

With Beijing’s growing military might and lethality and realizing its own handicapped deterrent responses, Malaysia thus is actually welcoming Western countermeasures in the region through its enhanced presence in the Philippines and with other measures including the Quad, AUKUS and deeper bilateral engagements with regional players.

However, Malaysia can only quietly welcome these measures, fearing a backlash from Beijing and a deviation from the country’s long held neutrality.

It has been wanting the US and the West to do more in economic and investment terms in the region and the country, and has been happy in receiving more than US$230 million (1 billion ringgit) in security grant and assistance and other defense support from the US since 2017.

However, KL remains reluctant to adhere to the West’s call for a more urgent and active response in standing up to Beijing’s claims and conduct in the South China Sea, even chastising the US when it tried to provide support in the West Capella incident of maritime standoff with Beijing and the numerous episodes of Chinese incursions.

Just by cozying up to China, and the lure of the economic support, Malaysia is compelled to sweep all the important fundamental global and civilizational norms of a rules-based order and a conviction for human rights under the carpet.

The apparent effect of the trip by Anwar to China sees Beijing gaining greater influence in negotiating power over Malaysia, allowing it to dictate terms of Code of Conduct (CoC) with regards to the South China Sea and other bilateral and regional flashpoints.

Beijing’s regional and global ambition with renewed narrative and soft-power projection have been almost blindly followed by Malaysia, as can be seen in the overwhelming praise of China’s role and Xi’s leadership.

Beijing’s regional and global ambition of weaponizing the BRI has invited blowback, made worse by its wolf-warrior and coercive tactics in the South China Sea agenda and the intimidating tactics on Taiwan, especially with the recent show of force in retaliating against President Tsai’s meeting with US House of Representative Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week. Xi’s new term has emboldened the options and range of measures in targeting the region either through hard-power intimidation or continuous soft-power sway through media influence and control, digital espionage and many others.

Divide and conquer strategy has been given a push, pushing for more direct negotiations with affected players including Malaysia, where Beijing can potentially use its expanded economic blackmailing tools to derive greater advantages, including holding Malaysia to ransom in using Beijing’s investment card.

Geopolitical tentacles in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership have further capitalized on the renewed front of ousting the growing Western attempts to strengthen a regional presence, and easy capital is offered in enticing more regional players into Beijing’s sphere of control and influence.

This is worrying in the face of questionable infrastructure projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a program whose crown jewels include Hambantota International Port in Sri Lanka, Ream Port in Cambodia notable for its potential military value and the East Coast Rail Line (ECRL) in Malaysia.

The ECRL is a symbol of Beijing’s long-term pursuit of its regional calculations in trade and market security, involving trade routes and taking into account the long-term risks posed by Singapore and Indonesia.

Other BRI projects in the region and beyond reflect similar long-term intent, from weaponizing port bases to developing strategic ports and trade routes in the name of economic development and shared prosperity.

The China trip is framed from an overwhelming perspective of positivity with little to no focus on the dissenting opinions and concerns raised. The long-term geopolitical and security risks on these investments and the extension of the BRI and economic influence in Malaysia are not being addressed, drowned by the waves of China pandering sentiments in securing the economic lifeline.

Malaysia’s efforts to diversify its economic reliance on Beijing and to increase the number of baskets for our eggs have failed to materialize, as seen in the still clueless strategic orientation of our external trade that has still predominantly relied on Beijing as the easiest way out for our economic dilemma.

Wary of KL following the footsteps of Manila in securing greater US strategic military presence that will pose a greater deterrent capacity against Beijing’s South China Sea agenda and will threaten to weaken its options on Taiwan, Beijing is pulling out all stops to gain Malaysia’s trust and if it fails, would be compelled to use bigger sticks to compel the country using hard power threats and blackmailing options, including threats of increased bellicosity in the South China Sea.

The expanded economic footprint in the country through the increased openings and platforms including on investments in key critical sectors particularly the digital domain and 5G, and on the recent developments on rare earths cultivation in the states of Perak and Kedah will provide greater lethal risks on Malaysia’s medium and long term vulnerabilities and susceptibility on being beholden to Beijing’s chessboard maneuvering.

It also exposes the country to continuous risks of Beijing’s espionage campaign and surveillance activities in digital and other domains, integrated with soft power tools and measures in the country and the region including the media, as highlighted by various intelligence agencies including the Federal Bureau Investigation of the US and UK’s Government Communications Headquarters GCHQ, as well as in the latest Freedom House report on China’s Global Media Influence 2022.

The Taipei based Doublethink Lab published a China Index report on March 24, reported that China maintains a strategy to influence politics, the media, academia, the military, and the economy in the countries where it has relationships until reaching a level of influence in all sectors of society, according to the analyzed data from 82 countries in nine regions last year, as assessed by more than 200 experts and academics participated in the project.

Malaysia is in the top ten of the most influenced countries, in which the report highlighted Beijing’s attempts to extend its influence through manipulation of the media and academic interaction, as well as trying to coerce other nations to adopt foreign policy goals in its favor after their economies have become reliant on China.

The report also pointed out Asian countries including Malaysia are heavily affected by China in the fields of economy and technology, being part of Beijing’s objective to create a new world order under the “Chinese model.”

The index was also referenced in the “China’s Global Influence and Interference Activities” hearing recently at the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an independent US government agency.

New opportunities for Malaysia’s policy reorientation

Anwar needs to be wise and strategic enough not to fall deeper into this trap and dogma, and to be bold enough to firmly reassert our unyielding and non-negotiable stance on matters of regional and national sovereignty and security.

By being bold to change our years-long China-centric approach, it will yield a three-pronged impact. First, it would give more policy options vis-à-vis China where Malaysia will have greater openings and options to counter Beijing’s long-held grip through our own internal advantage and having greater leverage and options to engage with the West deeper in a whole array of sectors, especially in security and defense.

Second, it will weaken the long held chain of regional command by Beijing, and will provide a compelling need for Beijing elites to reshape their regional ambitions and calculations, with more regional capacities to reshape region shared commitment in defending the rules based order and the US sphere of influence and counterbalancing presence.

Third, it will give Anwar the validation and legacy of seeing the bigger long-term picture of greater returns in aligning with the changing regional realities, and that the shift from a short-term capital-led approach to a long-term economic structure based on knowledge, value creation and meaningful transfer of technology and knowledge will be the way to go.

Anwar will be the first to be seen as the person who finally shapes the future economic and security direction of the country, to one that is universally embraced in nature and in upholding the moral high ground of a people-first economic setting with national and global responsibilities to the environment, human rights and civilizational dignity.

Anwar will have to stand up to his credentials and unyielding stance of upholding human rights, freedom and democracy. He has built his track record on such values and principles.

This will be the best platform to show to the region and the world that he and the country are indeed serious, transformational and independent in the approach to shape a new Malaysia and a region that is capable of shaping its own future direction.

The China trip is a missed platform to send a critical message of strategic clarity and the unwavering stance of Malaysia on critical issues.

Malaysia remains a maritime and trading nation in relying on external trade and the protection of the sea and trade routes, [repetitive] just like China needed these too to secure its national economic interests.

Finland has just joined NATO, after 70 years of neutrality, as it is realistic, truthful and wise enough to act on common-sense measures to safeguard its own interests and survival amidst changing and stark realities on the ground with Russia’s new intent.

It remains a pity that Malaysia is still trapped in its own ignorance and self-delusion of its own stubborn and utopian perspective of changing security calculations, and self-defeating actions of futile and clueless submission of faith to the same bet of decades old strategy.

Allowing full transparency, accountability and a clear commitment to the moral high ground is the only way Malaysia will be able to extract itself from the economic trap it is getting caught in. This must include unwavering partnerships with democracies and like-minded nations that seek to retain their sovereignty and autonomy in the face of China’s hegemonic designs.