The US-Iran: Pre-Election Threats – OpEd

By Andrei Smirnov

The US has already planned and is ready for a military campaign against Iran, Washington’s envoy to Israel Dan Shapiro stated on May 7. Experts don’t find these threats real and think that this is pre-election rhetoric.

Israeli media wrote that Shapiro’s words contradicted a number of recent statements made by the US Administration.

Washington claimed that it wanted to resolve Iran’s nuclear problem only through talks and sanctions, and Shapiro himself backed diplomatic means. However, according to him, the US Administration has no intentions to put up with Iran’s nuclear problem because it’s a great risk for Israel.

Recently, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has visited the US and Barack Obama offered him a deal: Israel will not attack Iran this year and in exchange will be supplied with weapons to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, including bunker busters. Later, the US denied this information.

The West suspects Iran of developing nuclear weapons while Tehran claims that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, the global community doesn’t believe in this with Washington being especially belligerent towards the country. However, it has recently changed this rhetoric. Experts consider this as Obama’s pre-election attempts to avoid another military conflict which is unpredictable in case with Iran.

At the same time, Obama doesn’t want to lose votes of the war-supporters thus he doesn’t halter statements about possible attacks, believes political analyst Leonid Polyakov:

“When a decision to attack Iran is publically pronounced it means that the US election campaign is on its final stage. Obama wants to get support by all means. According to the latest polls, he is losing to Rep Mitt Romney, thus, he needs the influential Jewish community to back him.”

The attack statements can also have been made by the military men who want to show their efforts.

A strike has been discussed time and again but it’s typical of any General Staff to have various strategies.

Shapiro’s statements were especially untimely after the April Ankara talks where the Big Six mediators had met with Iran. The US and the EU praised the negotiations for efficiency and a new round was scheduled for May 23 in Baghdad.

The Iranian issue can be solved only by talks and Moscow sticks to this stance. On May 17, Russia’s PM Dmitry Medvedev stated that military interference in other countries’ affairs and sanctions can lead to a large-scale regional war, maybe even to a nuclear one.