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When Will The War In Ukraine End? – OpEd

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Russia is responsible for the devastating carnage in Ukraine, but the US and NATO are guilty of deliberately provoking and prolonging it.Ukraine should realize that it is the victim of the geopolitical game in which Washington is indulging in and Ukraine is paving a bloody proxy US path for Washington’s geopolitical interests at the cost of its own national interests and citizens. President Zelensky of Ukraine should wake up to this cruel reality. “Having pushed Ukraine into war, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not know where to end it.” Wars begin accidently or at will, but they do not end at will most of the time. This observation still holds true. Russia began a war thinking it would quickly win.

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In my earlier article ‘Ukraine the unending War’ I had forecasted like many others that on theRussian Victory Day celebrations on May 9 “Putin may surprise the world to end the conflict by declaring Victory or worse escalate the ‘Special Military Operation’ into a full-fledged War on whole of Ukraine?” But none of that happened!

How can the Ukraine War End :

  • Ukraine needs to push for Negotiations. Zelensky says; “If the world would like to end this war, it needs to supply us with heavy weapons.” Zelensky and the Ukrainians now into the third month of war need to change this thought for their future and push for negotiations through the UN keeping the US and the NATO in the loop as otherwise US will not let it happen. Under Article 24 of the UN Charter, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has “primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.”  Zelensky is an American proxy which he must have well understood by now. This is no solution to bring an early end to the war but will further bring destruction and misery to Ukraine and Ukraine only. US goal is to weaken Russia as a military power.  
  • Russians protest  to end the war. Russian populace with rising inflation and shortages in daily needs may come on to the streets and force Putin to end the war. 
  • UN should insist that US and NATO stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and UN asks Russia to end the war. Russia in this manner may gain enough leverage to negotiate a reasonable agreement which will ensure that Crimea, Donbas and most of southern Ukraine remains under Russian control, and that Ukraine stays ‘Neutral’ and not join NATO. Instead of escalating the war, Russia could try to simply occupy the territory it already secured. It will be in no one’s interest to have the conflict go beyond Ukraine. 
  • Global Food shortages suggests the need to establish secure transportation zones in Ukraine and the Black Sea to allow wheat to be harvested, collected and transported. The UN with the cooperation of the Ukrainian government could recommend undertaking such an operation. African countries and Egypt need to request Putin to allow this to happen which may also give him the opportunity to ceasefire as an immediate step on humanitarian grounds.

The attrition suffered by Russian forces can be termed as a  Ukrainian victory by Ukraine and the Western media. According to the Ukrainian foreign ministry, Moscow has lost 24,900 troops, 1,110 tanks and 199 aircraft in its war against the eastern European country. The Russian forces have also lost 155 helicopters 2,686 armoured personnel vehicle, 502 artillery systems among others. The Ukrainian government further claims that the Russian forces have lost more than 1,900 vehicles and fuel tanks in what they call a ‘military operation’ in Ukraine.  Estimates appear to be exaggerated.

Putin at this stage may not like to go for a full-scale war due to domestic pressure and world opinion. A full-scale war, will becomes an even costlier one. If Putin fails, someone will eventually have to take the blame. It is always hard to predict potential power changes in authoritarian states, but past precedents suggest this is how it starts: As failure sets in, those close to Putin may expect that there will be a price to pay for themselves. Biden a known foe of Putin does want a leadership change.

The US led NATO allies, their partners and the Western media are engaging in an unprecedented media war. Their aim is to gain the public support for their actions against Russia. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine is horrific, there need to be honest discussions about this invasion and what led up to it. However, it would be logical to suggest that the US’s geopolitical ambitions have played a significant role in creating the present instability in Europe and a major cause to the Ukraine war. As US Secretary Austin said “We want Ukraine to win, One of our goals has been to limit Russia’s ability to do something like this again, That’s why we are arming the Ukrainians with weapons and equipment to defend themselves from Russian attacks, and it’s why we are using sanctions and export controls that are directly targeted at Russia’s defense industry to undercut Russia’s economic and military power to threaten and attack its neighbors.”

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Patial RC

Patial RC is a retired Infantry officer of the Indian Army and possesses unique experience of serving in active CI Ops across the country and in Sri Lanka. Patial RC is a regular writer on military and travel matters in military professional journals. The veteran is a keen mountaineer and a trekker.

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