Argentina’s Arrest Warrants: A Nuanced Approach Needed For Myanmar’s Complex Political Landscape – OpEd

On February 13, 2025, an Argentine court issued international arrest warrants for 25 Myanmar officials, including military leaders like Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, as well as former civilian leaders Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (DASSK) and former President U Htin Kyaw. This decision has sparked mixed reactions within Myanmar and raised concerns about the international community’s understanding of the country’s political complexities.

Initial Reactions and Concerns

The people of Myanmar initially welcomed the warrants for military personnel but expressed reservations about the inclusion of DASSK and U Htin Kyaw4. This reaction stems from a deep-rooted understanding of the constitutional constraints that limited civilian power during their tenure.

Constitutional Constraints on Civilian Leadership

The 2008 Constitution, drafted by the military junta, imposed significant limitations on civilian governance:

• DASSK was barred from becoming president due to her foreign-born children.
• 25% of parliamentary seats were reserved for the military, giving them veto power over constitutional amendments.
• The military retained control over key ministries, including home affairs, defense, and border affairs.
• The National Defense and Security Council was dominated by the military.
• The constitution granted the military the right to dismiss parliament and impose direct rule.

These constraints severely limited DASSK’s ability to implement reforms or control military actions, particularly concerning the Rohingya crisis.

The Military’s Strategic Manipulation

The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) deliberately engineered the Rohingya crisis to undermine DASSK’s leadership. They manipulated nationalist Buddhist groups, particularly Ma Ba Tha, to create a no-win situation for DASSK. Ma Ba Tha’s shifting allegiances further complicated the political landscape, making it politically costly for DASSK to defend the Rohingya without risking her Buddhist majority support base.

International Misunderstanding and Its Consequences

The international community’s misinterpretation of these complex dynamics has had severe consequences:

• Weakened support for the civilian government
• Emboldening the military to stage the 2021 coup
• Contribution to the ongoing civil war

Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Myanmar, argued that DASSK’s abandonment by her “international friends” during the Rohingya crisis enabled the military to launch its 2021 coup d’état2.

The international misinterpretation of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s (DASSK) role and the constitutional constraints she faced has significantly impacted Myanmar’s political trajectory, weakening global support for democratic forces and contributing to the country’s ongoing instability. This misrepresentation has also influenced international responses to Myanmar’s crises, at times overlooking the structural limitations imposed on civilian leadership.

DASSK has long been regarded as a symbol of hope and resilience for many in Myanmar in their struggle for democracy, despite the complexities and criticisms surrounding her leadership, particularly regarding her handling of the Rohingya crisis and engagement with the military.

The continued misunderstanding of Myanmar’s political realities—as exemplified by the Argentine court’s inclusion of civilian leaders in its arrest warrants—risks further complicating international engagement and undermining efforts to restore democratic governance in the country.

Call for Reassessment and Nuanced Understanding

It is crucial for the international community to:

• Analyze the situation more thoroughly, including the constraints of the 2008 constitution
• Listen to experts like Derek Tonkin and David I. Steinberg
• Recognize the potential oversimplification by international humanitarian assistance organizations

Action for Myanmar’s Pro-Democracy Forces

Burmese democracy advocates should clarify the Rohingya issue and constitutional constraints to the international community, emphasizing DASSK’s limited power over military actions.

Scrutiny of the Argentine Court’s Decision

The National Unity Government (NUG) and international supporters should demand transparency regarding the indictments against DASSK and U Htin Kyaw and prepare to defend civilian leaders based on their constitutional limitations7.

A Path Forward

To address the Rohingya crisis and promote justice in Myanmar, the international community should:

• Develop a more nuanced understanding of Myanmar’s political dynamics
• Focus on prosecuting military leaders through international courts
• Increase support for democratic forces in Myanmar

The “Cancelled” Documentary

The recent documentary “Cancelled: The Rise and Fall of Aung San Suu Kyi” provides valuable context, exploring whether DASSK was an early victim of cancel culture and offering a balanced view of her career and Myanmar’s complex political situation.